TheHomeRuns.org — PIT @ CWS

Playable air · 1.07×

PIT @ CWS

Rate Field · 7:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.07× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Best of game Colson Montgomery conv 33 · vs Bachar ⟷ Brandon Lowe conv 25 · vs Martin → edge: Colson Montgomery

ATTACK Lake Bachar RHP · PIT

leak 74

1.52 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.43 · leakiest side of this game

1 Colson Montgomery +330 C+ ●●●●●

2 Randal Grichuk — C+ ●●○○○

3 Munetaka Murakami +290 C+ ●●○○○

FADE Davis Martin RHP · CWS

leak 57

0.84 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.14 · stingy — thin edge

1 Brandon Lowe +370 C ●●●●○

2 Jared Triolo — D ●●○○○

3 Bryan Reynolds +525 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Colson Montgomery: Match 29.4% · 14D pace 36.4% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Colson Montgomery ✶ vs Bachar Edge +330 0.225 · 88.8 · 10.3% 36.4% 29.4% F B O C+ 65

· PIT Brandon Lowe vs Martin Edge +370 0.223 · 91.0 · 8.8% 22.2% 27.6% F B O C 58

· CWS Randal Grichuk vs Bachar — 0.280 · 91.4 · 9.9% 0.0% 30.1% F B O C+ 61

· CWS Munetaka Murakami COOL vs Bachar Edge +290 0.267 · 93.9 · 12.6% 8.3% 20.8% F B O C+ 67

· CWS Miguel Vargas COOL vs Bachar +320 0.234 · 90.6 · 10.7% 8.3% 17.4% F B O C+ 62

· CWS Andrew Benintendi vs Bachar Edge +525 0.174 · 89.0 · 8.5% 9.1% 11.8% F B O C 50

· PIT Oneil Cruz COOL vs Martin Edge +370 0.206 · 95.0 · 10.4% 0.0% 17.0% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· CWS Tristan Peters vs Bachar Edge +700 0.189 · 87.6 · 7.1% 8.3% 12.4% F B O D 49

· PIT Jared Triolo vs Martin — 0.070 · 86.6 · 4.0% 12.5% 7.7% F B O D 31

· PIT Bryan Reynolds vs Martin Edge +525 0.161 · 91.0 · 8.5% 9.1% 10.4% F B O D 47

· CWS Braden Montgomery COOL vs Bachar Edge +850 0.134 · 88.6 · 6.0% 9.1% 9.4% F B O D 42

· CWS Chase Meidroth COOL vs Bachar — 0.124 · 87.3 · 5.9% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 40

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs Bachar Edge +850 0.125 · 87.3 · 6.6% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 41

· PIT Spencer Horwitz vs Martin Edge +625 0.127 · 87.0 · 6.4% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 39

· PIT Nick Gonzales vs Martin +950 0.087 · 86.0 · 4.3% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 32

· PIT Jake Mangum COOL vs Martin Edge — 0.086 · 85.5 · 3.5% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Davis Martin — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Lake Bachar — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Lowe Murakami Montgomery Grichuk

Legend

attack side — vs Bachar fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Colson Montgomery +330 · 65

Brandon Lowe +370 · 58

Stadium conditions

Rate Field

First pitch 7:40p · roof unknown

Park 1.07× Wind unknown — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Boost · Combined 1.07× Unknown stadium. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Davis Martin · RHP 0.84 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.14 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Brandon Lowe 58 C +370 · 26 0.223 91.0 8.8% 25.8%vs RHP 390 17.1% 22.2% 27.6% 24

2 Oneil Cruz 56 C +370 COOL 32 0.206 95.0 10.4% 38.2%vs RHP 413 21.9% 0.0% 17.0% 23

3 Bryan Reynolds 47 D +525 WARM 83 0.161 91.0 8.5% 15.2%vs RHP 410 10.6% 9.1% 10.4% 31

4 Spencer Horwitz 39 D +625 WARM 151 0.127 87.0 6.4% 13.4%vs RHP 395 8.7% 0.0% 8.3% 27

5 Nick Gonzales 32 D +950 · 193 0.087 86.0 4.3% 9.4%vs RHP 397 6.0% 0.0% 7.8% 28

6 Jared Triolo 31 D — WARM 197 0.070 86.6 4.0% 8.0%vs RHP 409 2.5% 12.5% 7.7% 20

7 Jake Mangum 30 D — COOL 204 0.086 85.5 3.5% 9.1%vs RHP 393 4.2% 0.0% 7.8% 22

vs Lake Bachar · RHP 1.52 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.43 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami 67 C+ +290 COOL 4 0.267 93.9 12.6% 36.4%vs RHP 402 18.0% 8.3% 20.8% 20

2 Colson Montgomery ✶ 65 C+ +330 WARM 7 0.225 88.8 10.3% 27.6%vs RHP 397 22.5% 36.4% 29.4% 20

3 Miguel Vargas 62 C+ +320 COOL 16 0.234 90.6 10.7% 17.1%vs RHP 392 19.8% 8.3% 17.4% 34

4 Randal Grichuk 61 C+ — WARM 17 0.280 91.4 9.9% 15.4%vs RHP 390 14.3% 0.0% 30.1% 11

5 Andrew Benintendi 50 C +525 WARM 63 0.174 89.0 8.5% 16.3%vs RHP 388 12.4% 9.1% 11.8% 24

6 Tristan Peters 49 D +700 WARM 68 0.189 87.6 7.1% 13.6%vs RHP 377 11.3% 8.3% 12.4% 31

7 Braden Montgomery 42 D +850 COOL 124 0.134 88.6 6.0% 18.5%vs RHP 395 7.3% 9.1% 9.4% 34

8 Sam Antonacci 41 D +850 COOL 134 0.125 87.3 6.6% 11.6%vs RHP 390 7.5% 0.0% 8.4% 32

9 Chase Meidroth 40 D — COOL 140 0.124 87.3 5.9% 14.0%vs RHP 379 7.3% 0.0% 9.4% 29

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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