TheHomeRuns.org — CIN @ MIL

Suppressed air · 0.92×

CIN @ MIL

American Family Field · 7:45p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.92× Wind 8 mph in 74°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+11 ↑

6:45p

+11 ↑

7:45p

+11 ↑

8:45p

+11 ↑

9:45p

+11 ↑

10:45p

conditions hold steady across the window · +11 FIT

Best of game Jackson Chourio conv 27 · vs Abbott ⟷ Elly De La Cruz conv 33 · vs May → edge: Elly De La Cruz

ATTACK Andrew Abbott LHP · CIN

leak 83

1.31 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.17 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jackson Chourio +390 C ●●●●○

2 William Contreras +430 D ●●●○○

3 Jake Bauers +320 C ●●○○○

FADE Dustin May RHP · STL

leak 54

0.77 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.34 · stingy — thin edge

1 Elly De La Cruz +425 C ●●●●●

2 Tyler Stephenson +750 D ●●●○○

3 Sal Stewart +425 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Elly De La Cruz: Match 23.4% · 14D pace 41.7% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Elly De La Cruz ✶ HOT vs May Edge +425 0.227 · 94.5 · 10.6% 41.7% 23.4% F B O C 57

· MIL Jackson Chourio COOL vs Abbott Edge +390 0.201 · 91.7 · 10.1% 30.8% 22.5% F B O C 55

· — Sal Stewart vs May +425 0.211 · 90.2 · 9.5% 25.0% 18.6% F B O C 51

· MIL Jake Bauers COOL vs Abbott +320 0.222 · 92.4 · 10.4% 11.1% 17.2% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· — Tyler Stephenson vs May +750 0.173 · 91.1 · 9.3% 27.3% 16.5% F B O D 45

· MIL William Contreras HOT vs Abbott Edge +430 0.139 · 90.3 · 8.1% 27.3% 13.5% F B O D 44

· — Eugenio Suarez vs May +575 0.213 · 88.4 · 9.0% 0.0% 22.2% F B O D 43

· MIL Andrew Vaughn vs Abbott Edge +625 0.141 · 90.0 · 6.5% 14.3% 7.5% F B O D 39

· MIL Joey Ortiz COOL vs Abbott Edge +850 0.131 · 88.9 · 5.8% 11.1% 7.3% F B O D 36

· MIL Cooper Pratt COOL vs Abbott Edge +950 0.097 · 86.8 · 5.1% 10.0% 7.1% F B O D 33

· — Héctor Rodríguez COOL vs May Edge +750 0.184 · 88.3 · 7.3% 0.0% 16.0% F B O D 38

· — Jj Bleday COOL vs May Edge +500 0.204 · 88.3 · 8.5% 0.0% 12.2% F B O D 40

· — Matt Mclain COOL vs May +850 0.156 · 88.3 · 8.2% 0.0% 11.0% F B O D 35

· MIL Garrett Mitchell vs Abbott +625 0.148 · 93.2 · 9.7% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 42

· MIL Brice Turang COOL vs Abbott +950 0.167 · 90.1 · 7.6% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 42

· — Ke'Bryan Hayes COOL vs May +850 0.095 · 90.8 · 7.4% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 33

· MIL Luis Lara COOL vs Abbott Edge +950 0.093 · 89.0 · 6.0% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Andrew Abbott — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Dustin May — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Chourio Bauers Contreras Cruz Stewart Stephenson

Legend

attack side — vs Abbott fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Elly De La Cruz +425 · 57

Jackson Chourio +390 · 55

Sal Stewart +425 · 51

Stadium conditions

American Family Field

First pitch 6:45p · roof retractable

Park 0.92× Wind 8 mph in 74°F retractable

+11

↑

12 mph · out

81°F

6:45p · peak

+11

↑

12 mph · out

81°F

7:45p

+11

↑

12 mph · out

81°F

8:45p

+11

↑

12 mph · out

81°F

9:45p

+11

↑

12 mph · out

81°F

10:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.92× 74°F, wind 8 mph SSE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Andrew Abbott · LHP 1.31 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.17 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jackson Chourio 55 C +390 COOL 36 0.201 91.7 10.1% 25.9%vs LHP 400 17.9% 30.8% 22.5% 49

2 Jake Bauers 55 C +320 COOL 38 0.222 92.4 10.4% 21.4%vs LHP 402 19.1% 11.1% 17.2% 16

3 William Contreras 44 D +430 HOT 111 0.139 90.3 8.1% 12.9%vs LHP 411 10.6% 27.3% 13.5% 31

4 Garrett Mitchell 42 D +625 WARM 131 0.148 93.2 9.7% 16.7%vs LHP 415 7.0% 0.0% 8.5% 24

5 Brice Turang 42 D +950 COOL 133 0.167 90.1 7.6% 5.0%vs LHP 407 10.1% 0.0% 8.0% 32

6 Andrew Vaughn 39 D +625 · 159 0.141 90.0 6.5% 8.0%vs LHP 410 8.2% 14.3% 7.5% 21

7 Joey Ortiz 36 D +850 COOL 185 0.131 88.9 5.8% 10.5%vs LHP 390 7.2% 11.1% 7.3% 27

8 Cooper Pratt 33 D +950 COOL 204 0.097 86.8 5.1% 9.1%vs LHP 399 8.3% 10.0% 7.1% 32

9 Luis Lara 33 D +950 COOL 207 0.093 89.0 6.0% 0.0%vs LHP 373 5.3% 0.0% 6.0% 19

vs Dustin May · RHP 0.77 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.34 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Elly De La Cruz ✶ 57 C +425 HOT 25 0.227 94.5 10.6% 23.2%vs RHP 402 18.3% 41.7% 23.4% 30

2 Sal Stewart 51 C +425 · 62 0.211 90.2 9.5% 23.5%vs RHP 397 17.6% 25.0% 18.6% 40

3 Tyler Stephenson 45 D +750 · 102 0.173 91.1 9.3% 21.3%vs RHP 392 10.3% 27.3% 16.5% 26

4 Eugenio Suarez 43 D +575 WARM 115 0.213 88.4 9.0% 29.8%vs RHP 396 0.0% 0.0% 22.2% 18

5 Jj Bleday 40 D +500 COOL 141 0.204 88.3 8.5% 21.2%vs RHP 389 0.0% 0.0% 12.2% 30

6 Héctor Rodríguez 38 D +750 COOL 162 0.184 88.3 7.3% 28.6%vs RHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 16.0% 30

7 Matt Mclain 35 D +850 COOL 187 0.156 88.3 8.2% 12.5%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 11.0% 29

8 Ke'Bryan Hayes 33 D +850 COOL 202 0.095 90.8 7.4% 10.3%vs RHP 387 10.0% 0.0% 8.0% 2

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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