TheHomeRuns.org — NYM @ NYY

Yankee Stadium is live · 1.18×

NYM @ NYY

Yankee Stadium · 7:05p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.08× Wind 9 mph slight_out 76°F Roof open

Hourly window

+3 ↑

7:05p

+2 ↑

8:05p

+0 ↑

9:05p

-2 ↑

10:05p

-2 ↑

11:05p

best window is early — 7:05p at +3

Best of game Francisco Lindor conv 31 · vs Rodón ⟷ Paul Goldschmidt conv 23 · vs McLean → edge: Juan Soto

ATTACK Carlos Rodón LHP · NYY

leak 99

0.84 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.22 · leakiest side of this game

1 Francisco Lindor +370 C ●●●●●

2 Juan Soto +290 C+ ●●●●●

3 Brett Baty — D ●●○○○

FADE Nolan McLean RHP · NYM

leak 58

0.85 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.02 · stingy — thin edge

1 Paul Goldschmidt — C ●●●●○

2 Ben Rice +305 C+ ●●○○○

3 Aaron Judge +255 C+ ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Juan Soto: Match 31.3% · 14D pace 30.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYM Francisco Lindor vs Rodón Edge +370 0.204 · 91.0 · 8.0% 41.7% 20.9% F B O C 57

· NYM Juan Soto ✶ vs Rodón +290 0.253 · 92.3 · 9.9% 30.0% 31.3% F B O C+ 65

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt vs McLean — 0.205 · 86.8 · 8.3% 22.2% 23.3% F B O C 54

· NYY Ben Rice COOL vs McLean Edge +305 0.258 · 92.0 · 9.6% 8.3% 19.8% F B O C+ 61

· NYY Aaron Judge COOL vs McLean +255 0.276 · 94.0 · 11.7% 0.0% 24.6% F B O C+ 63

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· NYM Brett Baty HOT vs Rodón — 0.135 · 90.3 · 8.5% 12.5% 14.3% F B O D 45

· NYM Bo Bichette vs Rodón Edge +525 0.134 · 89.5 · 6.9% 16.7% 9.0% F B O D 43

· NYM Francisco Alvarez vs Rodón Edge +475 0.172 · 90.3 · 10.5% 0.0% 18.6% F B O D 48

· NYY Cody Bellinger COOL vs McLean Edge +525 0.157 · 89.1 · 6.2% 7.7% 10.1% F B O D 43

· NYY Austin Wells vs McLean Edge +575 0.121 · 89.2 · 6.5% 0.0% 14.7% F B O D 40

· NYM Carson Benge COOL vs Rodón +625 0.137 · 88.6 · 7.0% 0.0% 11.5% F B O D 42

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon COOL vs McLean Edge +525 0.144 · 90.9 · 7.6% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 43

· NYM A.J. Ewing COOL vs Rodón +950 0.118 · 89.3 · 6.9% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 37

· NYM Jared Young COOL vs Rodón — 0.160 · 89.9 · 7.0% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 43

· NYY Jose Caballero COOL vs McLean — 0.136 · 83.9 · 5.2% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 35

· NYM Marcus Semien COOL vs Rodón Edge +575 0.128 · 86.6 · 6.6% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 40

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Carlos Rodón — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Nolan McLean — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Soto Lindor Baty Rice Goldschmidt

Legend

attack side — vs Rodón fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Francisco Lindor +370 · 57

Juan Soto +290 · 65

Paul Goldschmidt — · 54

Stadium conditions

Yankee Stadium

First pitch 7:05p · roof open

Park 1.08× Wind 9 mph slight_out 76°F open

↑

9 mph · slight_out

77°F

7:05p · peak

↑

8 mph · cross

76°F

8:05p

↑

8 mph · cross

74°F

9:05p

-2

↑

8 mph · cross

72°F

10:05p

-2

↑

7 mph · cross

71°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.18× 76°F, wind 9 mph NNW (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Carlos Rodón · LHP 0.84 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.22 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Juan Soto ✶ 65 C+ +290 · 7 0.253 92.3 9.9% 11.8%vs LHP 401 20.6% 30.0% 31.3% 37

2 Francisco Lindor 57 C +370 · 23 0.204 91.0 8.0% 17.2%vs LHP 393 16.3% 41.7% 20.9% 39

3 Francisco Alvarez 48 D +475 WARM 66 0.172 90.3 10.5% 21.4%vs LHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 18.6% 15

4 Brett Baty 45 D — HOT 87 0.135 90.3 8.5% 0.0%vs LHP 396 7.2% 12.5% 14.3% 18

5 Jared Young 43 D — COOL 105 0.160 89.9 7.0% 0.0%vs LHP 400 6.2% 0.0% 10.0% 27

6 Bo Bichette 43 D +525 WARM 106 0.134 89.5 6.9% 20.7%vs LHP 388 10.6% 16.7% 9.0% 38

7 Carson Benge 42 D +625 COOL 113 0.137 88.6 7.0% 17.2%vs LHP 396 10.0% 0.0% 11.5% 31

8 Marcus Semien 40 D +575 COOL 134 0.128 86.6 6.6% 9.7%vs LHP 391 10.0% 0.0% 7.2% 37

9 A.J. Ewing 37 D +950 COOL 155 0.118 89.3 6.9% 11.8%vs LHP 401 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 34

vs Nolan McLean · RHP 0.85 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.02 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Aaron Judge 63 C+ +255 COOL 11 0.276 94.0 11.7% 34.3%vs RHP 404 22.2% 0.0% 24.6% 4

2 Ben Rice 61 C+ +305 COOL 16 0.258 92.0 9.6% 30.9%vs RHP 395 23.2% 8.3% 19.8% 36

3 Paul Goldschmidt 54 C — WARM 38 0.205 86.8 8.3% 17.9%vs RHP 390 16.5% 22.2% 23.3% 19

4 Ryan Mcmahon 43 D +525 COOL 100 0.144 90.9 7.6% 18.5%vs RHP 387 11.1% 0.0% 10.2% 17

5 Cody Bellinger 43 D +525 COOL 104 0.157 89.1 6.2% 11.4%vs RHP 376 9.6% 7.7% 10.1% 45

6 Austin Wells 40 D +575 WARM 128 0.121 89.2 6.5% 14.0%vs RHP 379 7.6% 0.0% 14.7% 23

7 Jose Caballero 35 D — COOL 169 0.136 83.9 5.2% 21.9%vs RHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 24

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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