TheHomeRuns.org — KC @ BOS

Suppressed air · 0.94×

KC @ BOS

Fenway Park · 7:10p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind 4 mph cross 70°F Roof open

Hourly window

-2 ↑

7:10p

-2 ↑

8:10p

-3 ↑

9:10p

-4 ↑

10:10p

-5 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at -2

Best of game Carter Jensen conv 29 · vs Gray ⟷ Wilyer Abreu conv 18 · vs Lugo → edge: Carter Jensen

ATTACK Sonny Gray RHP · BOS

leak 64

0.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.11 · leakiest side of this game

1 Carter Jensen +500 C ●●●●○

2 Vinnie Pasquantino +525 D ●●○○○

3 Nick Loftin +950 D ●○○○○

FADE Seth Lugo RHP · KC

leak 34

1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.21 · stingy — thin edge

1 Wilyer Abreu +350 C ●●●○○

2 Jarren Duran +500 D ●●○○○

3 Caleb Durbin +950 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Carter Jensen: Match 22.1% · 14D pace 36.4% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· KC Carter Jensen ✶ HOT vs Gray Edge +500 0.213 · 91.4 · 8.8% 36.4% 22.1% F B O C 53

· BOS Wilyer Abreu vs Lugo Edge +350 0.208 · 89.8 · 9.5% 23.1% 12.1% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· BOS Jarren Duran vs Lugo Edge +500 0.158 · 90.0 · 8.4% 18.2% 12.8% F B O D 45

· KC Vinnie Pasquantino vs Gray Edge +525 0.144 · 89.8 · 7.3% 18.2% 9.3% F B O D 39

· KC Nick Loftin vs Gray +950 0.145 · 87.0 · 5.3% 10.0% 8.2% F B O D 35

· KC Jac Caglianone COOL vs Gray Edge +525 0.211 · 93.1 · 9.5% 0.0% 14.3% F B O D 48

· KC Bobby Witt vs Gray — 0.172 · 92.2 · 8.9% 0.0% 10.3% F B O D 40

· KC Salvador Perez vs Gray +500 0.154 · 89.0 · 8.3% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 36

· KC Michael Massey vs Gray Edge +700 0.161 · 89.8 · 6.2% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 36

· BOS Caleb Durbin COOL vs Lugo +950 0.131 · 83.4 · 4.5% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 32

· KC Isaac Collins COOL vs Gray Edge +950 0.114 · 88.3 · 5.9% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 31

· BOS Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Lugo — 0.145 · 87.7 · 7.0% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 38

· BOS Connor Wong COOL vs Lugo — 0.114 · 85.7 · 5.8% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Sonny Gray — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Seth Lugo — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Jensen Pasquantino Abreu Duran

Legend

attack side — vs Gray fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Carter Jensen +500 · 53

Stadium conditions

Fenway Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 0.94× Wind 4 mph cross 70°F open

-2

↑

4 mph · cross

72°F

7:10p · peak

-2

↑

3 mph · cross

70°F

8:10p

-3

↑

3 mph · cross

68°F

9:10p

-4

↑

3 mph · cross

65°F

10:10p

-5

↑

4 mph · cross

63°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.94× 70°F, wind 4 mph NW (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Sonny Gray · RHP 0.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.11 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Carter Jensen ✶ 53 C +500 HOT 39 0.213 91.4 8.8% 20.0%vs RHP 400 17.1% 36.4% 22.1% 31

2 Jac Caglianone 48 D +525 COOL 69 0.211 93.1 9.5% 29.1%vs RHP 416 14.4% 0.0% 14.3% 24

3 Bobby Witt 40 D — WARM 129 0.172 92.2 8.9% 15.7%vs RHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 42

4 Vinnie Pasquantino 39 D +525 WARM 140 0.144 89.8 7.3% 14.7%vs RHP 396 11.3% 18.2% 9.3% 36

5 Salvador Perez 36 D +500 WARM 164 0.154 89.0 8.3% 17.4%vs RHP 405 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 43

6 Michael Massey 36 D +700 WARM 166 0.161 89.8 6.2% 9.8%vs RHP 399 7.1% 0.0% 8.6% 24

7 Nick Loftin 35 D +950 WARM 172 0.145 87.0 5.3% 11.5%vs RHP 397 9.0% 10.0% 8.2% 34

8 Isaac Collins 31 D +950 COOL 192 0.114 88.3 5.9% 7.3%vs RHP 394 5.0% 0.0% 6.7% 25

vs Seth Lugo · RHP 1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.21 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Wilyer Abreu 52 C +350 · 47 0.208 89.8 9.5% 14.7%vs RHP 406 16.2% 23.1% 12.1% 38

2 Jarren Duran 45 D +500 WARM 89 0.158 90.0 8.4% 28.6%vs RHP 401 14.1% 18.2% 12.8% 32

3 Andruw Monasterio 38 D — COOL 152 0.145 87.7 7.0% 2.3%vs RHP 390 10.0% 0.0% 6.6% 15

4 Connor Wong 33 D — COOL 180 0.114 85.7 5.8% 4.8%vs RHP 395 6.8% 0.0% 6.3% 15

5 Caleb Durbin 32 D +950 COOL 184 0.131 83.4 4.5% 18.8%vs RHP 376 8.0% 0.0% 7.8% 29

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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