TheHomeRuns.org — PHI @ ATL

Playable air · 1.06×

PHI @ ATL

Truist Park · 7:15p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind 8 mph cross 75°F Roof open

Hourly window

+1 ↑

7:15p

+2 ↑

8:15p

+0 ↑

9:15p

-1 ↑

10:15p

-2 ↑

11:15p

best window is early — 8:15p at +2

Best of game Michael Harris conv 14 · vs Nola ⟷ Kyle Schwarber conv 31 · vs Sale → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Aaron Nola RHP · PHI

leak 92

1.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.14 · leakiest side of this game

1 Michael Harris — C ●●○○○

2 Ronald Acuna — C ●●○○○

3 Drake Baldwin +475 C ●●○○○

FADE Chris Sale LHP · ATL

leak 24

0.54 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.40 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Schwarber +370 C+ ●●●●●

2 Trea Turner +625 D ●●○○○

3 Alec Bohm +750 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: Match 31.7% · 14D pace 30.8%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ COOL vs Sale +370 0.286 · 92.4 · 10.2% 30.8% 31.7% F B O C+ 66

· ATL Michael Harris COOL vs Nola Edge — 0.197 · 90.4 · 9.7% 0.0% 27.1% F B O C 52

· ATL Ronald Acuna vs Nola — 0.185 · 90.6 · 10.7% 0.0% 23.3% F B O C 51

· ATL Drake Baldwin COOL vs Nola Edge +475 0.174 · 91.6 · 10.7% 7.7% 13.9% F B O C 55

· ATL Matt Olson COOL vs Nola Edge +330 0.254 · 92.6 · 11.5% 0.0% 20.8% F B O C+ 65

· ATL Austin Riley vs Nola +500 0.141 · 91.4 · 10.5% 8.3% 11.2% F B O C 50

· PHI Bryce Harper COOL vs Sale +525 0.223 · 90.5 · 8.2% 0.0% 12.6% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· PHI Trea Turner vs Sale Edge +625 0.147 · 88.5 · 6.2% 15.4% 8.0% F B O D 41

· ATL Ozzie Albies vs Nola Edge +625 0.163 · 87.1 · 6.0% 8.3% 11.5% F B O D 46

· PHI Alec Bohm vs Sale Edge +750 0.143 · 90.5 · 6.0% 9.1% 8.9% F B O D 39

· PHI Bryson Stott vs Sale +850 0.142 · 89.2 · 6.1% 7.7% 7.9% F B O D 38

· ATL Dominic Smith COOL vs Nola Edge — 0.122 · 87.8 · 7.0% 0.0% 11.7% F B O D 42

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski COOL vs Nola Edge +575 0.147 · 90.5 · 7.8% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 45

· PHI Brandon Marsh COOL vs Sale — 0.151 · 89.3 · 7.1% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 40

· ATL Mauricio Dubon vs Nola +950 0.119 · 86.5 · 5.9% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 37

· PHI J.T. Realmuto vs Sale Edge +850 0.127 · 89.7 · 5.7% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 33

· PHI Justin Crawford COOL vs Sale — 0.082 · 87.4 · 2.8% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 26

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Chris Sale — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Aaron Nola — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Schwarber Harris

Legend

attack side — vs Nola fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Kyle Schwarber +370 · 66

Stadium conditions

Truist Park

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 1.06× Wind 8 mph cross 75°F open

↑

8 mph · cross

80°F

7:15p

↑

4 mph · cross

77°F

8:15p · peak

↑

4 mph · cross

74°F

9:15p

-1

↑

4 mph · cross

71°F

10:15p

-2

↑

4 mph · in

68°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.06× 75°F, wind 8 mph SW (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Chris Sale · LHP 0.54 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.40 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 66 C+ +370 COOL 6 0.286 92.4 10.2% 37.8%vs LHP 403 24.1% 30.8% 31.7% 37

2 Bryce Harper 51 C +525 COOL 54 0.223 90.5 8.2% 10.8%vs LHP 402 17.6% 0.0% 12.6% 32

3 Trea Turner 41 D +625 WARM 124 0.147 88.5 6.2% 8.1%vs LHP 390 13.0% 15.4% 8.0% 45

4 Brandon Marsh 40 D — COOL 133 0.151 89.3 7.1% 17.6%vs LHP 391 10.8% 0.0% 9.4% 22

5 Alec Bohm 39 D +750 · 141 0.143 90.5 6.0% 17.5%vs LHP 394 10.4% 9.1% 8.9% 29

6 Bryson Stott 38 D +850 · 150 0.142 89.2 6.1% 10.0%vs LHP 393 7.4% 7.7% 7.9% 33

7 J.T. Realmuto 33 D +850 WARM 176 0.127 89.7 5.7% 7.1%vs LHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 24

8 Justin Crawford 26 D — COOL 209 0.082 87.4 2.8% 3.2% 382 1.9% 0.0% 6.5% 20

vs Aaron Nola · RHP 1.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.14 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson 65 C+ +330 COOL 10 0.254 92.6 11.5% 29.1%vs RHP 408 22.3% 0.0% 20.8% 36

2 Drake Baldwin 55 C +475 COOL 35 0.174 91.6 10.7% 22.7%vs RHP 402 15.7% 7.7% 13.9% 40

3 Michael Harris 52 C — COOL 45 0.197 90.4 9.7% 25.0%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 27.1% 36

4 Ronald Acuna 51 C — · 48 0.185 90.6 10.7% 25.0%vs RHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 23.3% 42

5 Austin Riley 50 C +500 · 59 0.141 91.4 10.5% 17.5%vs RHP 409 9.0% 8.3% 11.2% 28

6 Ozzie Albies 46 D +625 WARM 80 0.163 87.1 6.0% 13.0%vs RHP 387 13.0% 8.3% 11.5% 38

7 Mike Yastrzemski 45 D +575 COOL 90 0.147 90.5 7.8% 14.3%vs RHP 389 7.5% 0.0% 10.5% 20

8 Dominic Smith 42 D — COOL 112 0.122 87.8 7.0% 14.0%vs RHP 392 7.8% 0.0% 11.7% 4

9 Mauricio Dubon 37 D +950 · 156 0.119 86.5 5.9% 9.7%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 41

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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