TheHomeRuns.org — TEX @ AZ

Chase Field is live · 1.17×

TEX @ AZ

Chase Field · 9:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.90× Wind 10 mph slight_out 100°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+2 ↑

6:40p

+3 ↑

7:40p

+4 ↑

8:40p

+4 ↑

9:40p

+4 ↑

10:40p

the 8:40p window peaks +4

Best of game Tim Tawa conv 16 · vs Proxy ⟷ Joc Pederson conv 37 · vs Proxy → edge: Joc Pederson

ATTACK TEX Bullpen Proxy · SF

leak 56

1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Tim Tawa +750 D ●●○○○

2 Nolan Arenado +700 D ●●○○○

3 Ketel Marte +425 D ●●○○○

FADE AZ Bullpen Proxy · AZ

leak 39

1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Joc Pederson +400 C+ ●●●●●

2 Corey Seager +370 C ●●●●○

3 Ezequiel Duran +750 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Joc Pederson: Match 24.4% · 14D pace 50.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TEX Joc Pederson ✶ vs Proxy +400 0.252 · 92.0 · 11.2% 50.0% 24.4% F B O C+ 61

· TEX Corey Seager vs Proxy +370 0.202 · 91.6 · 15.4% 30.8% 19.1% F B O C 59

· TEX Jake Burger vs Proxy +500 0.196 · 90.3 · 12.4% 15.4% 18.4% F B O C 53

· — Corbin Carroll vs Proxy +475 0.226 · 91.8 · 12.1% 10.0% 12.2% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· TEX Ezequiel Duran vs Proxy +750 0.174 · 88.9 · 6.4% 23.1% 14.6% F B O D 43

· — Tim Tawa COOL vs Proxy +750 0.154 · 90.6 · 10.0% 18.2% 13.6% F B O D 44

· — Nolan Arenado COOL vs Proxy +700 0.193 · 84.9 · 6.4% 16.7% 11.6% F B O D 42

· — Ketel Marte COOL vs Proxy +425 0.192 · 90.2 · 9.7% 14.3% 10.8% F B O D 47

· TEX Evan Carter COOL vs Proxy +750 0.128 · 88.0 · 5.3% 14.3% 6.2% F B O D 33

· — Gabriel Moreno vs Proxy +850 0.165 · 89.2 · 7.9% 9.1% 8.7% F B O D 40

· TEX Wyatt Langford COOL vs Proxy +500 0.194 · 88.9 · 6.6% 7.7% 10.0% F B O D 43

· TEX Brandon Nimmo COOL vs Proxy +500 0.149 · 92.3 · 9.7% 7.7% 7.4% F B O D 42

· — Ildemaro Vargas COOL vs Proxy — 0.127 · 87.4 · 3.1% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 28

· — Geraldo Perdomo COOL vs Proxy +950 0.115 · 87.4 · 2.7% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 26

· — Ryan Waldschmidt COOL vs Proxy +950 0.109 · 86.9 · 6.6% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 31

· TEX Nicky Lopez COOL vs Proxy — 0.042 · 84.4 · — 0.0% 5.6% F B O D 16

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for AZ Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for TEX Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Pederson Seager Burger Duran Tawa Arenado

Legend

attack side — vs Proxy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Joc Pederson +400 · 61

Corey Seager +370 · 59

Stadium conditions

Chase Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 0.90× Wind 10 mph slight_out 100°F retractable

↑

10 mph · slight_out

99°F

6:40p

↑

11 mph · slight_out

98°F

7:40p

↑

12 mph · slight_out

96°F

8:40p · peak

↑

12 mph · slight_out

94°F

9:40p

↑

13 mph · slight_out

92°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.17× 100°F, wind 10 mph WSW (slight_out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs AZ Bullpen Proxy 1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson ✶ 61 C+ +400 WARM 21 0.252 92.0 11.2% 25.2% 396 23.7% 50.0% 24.4% 16

2 Corey Seager 59 C +370 WARM 30 0.202 91.6 15.4% 20.7% 394 18.4% 30.8% 19.1% 40

3 Jake Burger 53 C +500 WARM 60 0.196 90.3 12.4% 19.7% 402 16.7% 15.4% 18.4% 30

4 Ezequiel Duran 43 D +750 WARM 137 0.174 88.9 6.4% 15.7% 397 13.5% 23.1% 14.6% 38

5 Wyatt Langford 43 D +500 COOL 138 0.194 88.9 6.6% 13.8% 399 15.0% 7.7% 10.0% 31

6 Brandon Nimmo 42 D +500 COOL 146 0.149 92.3 9.7% 11.3% 404 9.6% 7.7% 7.4% 38

7 Evan Carter 33 D +750 COOL 196 0.128 88.0 5.3% 8.7% 380 7.6% 14.3% 6.2% 24

8 Nicky Lopez 16 D — COOL 218 0.042 84.4 — 2.9% 397 1.8% 0.0% 5.6% 9

vs TEX Bullpen Proxy 1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 53 C +475 · 61 0.226 91.8 12.1% 12.3% 402 12.8% 10.0% 12.2% 27

2 Ketel Marte 47 D +425 COOL 97 0.192 90.2 9.7% 14.7% 408 15.0% 14.3% 10.8% 28

3 Tim Tawa 44 D +750 COOL 125 0.154 90.6 10.0% 15.6% 399 10.4% 18.2% 13.6% 26

4 Nolan Arenado 42 D +700 COOL 145 0.193 84.9 6.4% 15.0% 390 15.4% 16.7% 11.6% 38

5 Gabriel Moreno 40 D +850 · 162 0.165 89.2 7.9% 10.8% 400 10.2% 9.1% 8.7% 34

6 Ryan Waldschmidt 31 D +950 COOL 207 0.109 86.9 6.6% 5.7% 415 3.8% 0.0% 6.4% 18

7 Ildemaro Vargas 28 D — COOL 213 0.127 87.4 3.1% 7.8% 396 4.6% 0.0% 6.6% 37

8 Geraldo Perdomo 26 D +950 COOL 215 0.115 87.4 2.7% 6.7% 383 6.1% 0.0% 6.5% 38

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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