TheHomeRuns.org — CLE @ MIN

Target Field is live · 1.13×

CLE @ MIN

Target Field · 8:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind 15 mph cross 81°F Roof open

Hourly window

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7:10p

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8:10p

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9:10p

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10:10p

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11:10p

the 7:10p window peaks -9

Best of game Travis Bazzana conv 23 · vs Bradley ⟷ Kody Clemens conv 33 · vs Messick → edge: Kody Clemens

ATTACK Taj Bradley RHP · MIN

leak 89

1.30 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.30 · leakiest side of this game

1 Travis Bazzana +850 D ●●●○○

2 Brayan Rocchio +750 D ●●●○○

3 Angel Martinez — D ●●○○○

FADE Parker Messick LHP · CLE

leak 73

0.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.10 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kody Clemens +500 C ●●●●●

2 Brooks Lee +750 D ●●○○○

3 Josh Bell +525 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kody Clemens: Match 24.7% · 14D pace 41.7%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIN Kody Clemens ✶ vs Messick +500 0.234 · 92.4 · 8.0% 41.7% 24.7% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· CLE Travis Bazzana vs Bradley Edge +850 0.142 · 87.8 · 6.7% 30.0% 15.1% F B O D 41

· CLE Brayan Rocchio COOL vs Bradley Edge +750 0.129 · 86.9 · 5.3% 25.0% 13.5% F B O D 37

· MIN Brooks Lee HOT vs Messick Edge +750 0.186 · 88.3 · 4.8% 16.7% 10.0% F B O D 40

· MIN Josh Bell vs Messick Edge +525 0.168 · 90.0 · 7.2% 16.7% 10.0% F B O D 40

· CLE Angel Martinez vs Bradley Edge — 0.186 · 87.4 · 8.1% 0.0% 21.7% F B O D 41

· CLE Patrick Bailey COOL vs Bradley Edge +625 0.122 · 90.4 · 7.9% 12.5% 8.5% F B O D 38

· MIN Trevor Larnach COOL vs Messick +750 0.158 · 87.8 · 6.2% 9.1% 10.5% F B O D 36

· MIN Royce Lewis COOL vs Messick Edge +500 0.162 · 89.9 · 7.7% 8.3% 9.8% F B O D 40

· MIN Luke Keaschall vs Messick Edge +950 0.115 · 85.5 · 4.3% 8.3% 6.4% F B O D 28

· CLE Chase Delauter vs Bradley Edge +500 0.168 · 91.5 · 7.6% 0.0% 11.2% F B O D 40

· MIN Victor Caratini COOL vs Messick Edge — 0.101 · 89.5 · 5.8% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 28

· MIN Austin Martin vs Messick +750 0.092 · 87.0 · 4.0% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 25

· CLE Jose Ramirez COOL vs Bradley Edge +500 0.137 · 88.8 · 6.1% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 33

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Bradley Edge +950 0.062 · 83.6 · 2.1% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 21

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Taj Bradley — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Parker Messick — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Bazzana Rocchio Clemens Lee Bell

Legend

attack side — vs Bradley fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Kody Clemens +500 · 54

Stadium conditions

Target Field

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 0.94× Wind 15 mph cross 81°F open

-9

↑

15 mph · cross

82°F

7:10p · peak

-10

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15 mph · cross

80°F

8:10p

-10

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15 mph · cross

78°F

9:10p

-11

↑

16 mph · cross

76°F

10:10p

-9

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14 mph · cross

73°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.13× 81°F, wind 15 mph S (cross) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Taj Bradley · RHP 1.30 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.30 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Angel Martinez 41 D — · 120 0.186 87.4 8.1% 22.7%vs RHP 393 0.0% 0.0% 21.7% 19

2 Travis Bazzana 41 D +850 WARM 122 0.142 87.8 6.7% 15.0%vs RHP 394 11.2% 30.0% 15.1% 23

3 Chase Delauter 40 D +500 WARM 126 0.168 91.5 7.6% 19.3%vs RHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 28

4 Patrick Bailey 38 D +625 COOL 148 0.122 90.4 7.9% 16.7%vs RHP 409 7.0% 12.5% 8.5% 20

5 Brayan Rocchio 37 D +750 COOL 159 0.129 86.9 5.3% 12.7%vs RHP 384 8.8% 25.0% 13.5% 36

6 Jose Ramirez 33 D +500 COOL 177 0.137 88.8 6.1% 8.7%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 44

7 Steven Kwan 21 D +950 COOL 217 0.062 83.6 2.1% 2.9%vs RHP 372 1.5% 0.0% 6.8% 46

vs Parker Messick · LHP 0.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.10 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kody Clemens ✶ 54 C +500 WARM 37 0.234 92.4 8.0% 20.0%vs LHP 390 19.2% 41.7% 24.7% 33

2 Brooks Lee 40 D +750 HOT 130 0.186 88.3 4.8% 8.3%vs LHP 374 16.4% 16.7% 10.0% 44

3 Josh Bell 40 D +525 WARM 131 0.168 90.0 7.2% 12.5%vs LHP 409 12.0% 16.7% 10.0% 39

4 Royce Lewis 40 D +500 COOL 132 0.162 89.9 7.7% 16.0%vs LHP 402 13.7% 8.3% 9.8% 32

5 Trevor Larnach 36 D +750 COOL 165 0.158 87.8 6.2% 25.0%vs LHP 391 9.7% 9.1% 10.5% 25

6 Victor Caratini 28 D — COOL 203 0.101 89.5 5.8% 11.8%vs LHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 5

7 Luke Keaschall 28 D +950 · 205 0.115 85.5 4.3% 2.8%vs LHP 378 7.1% 8.3% 6.4% 40

8 Austin Martin 25 D +750 · 211 0.092 87.0 4.0% 7.4%vs LHP 394 3.1% 0.0% 8.0% 0

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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