TheHomeRuns.org — PIT @ CHC

Wrigley Field is live · 1.13×

PIT @ CHC

Wrigley Field · 2:20p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.13× Wind 10 mph cross 75°F Roof open

Hourly window

+2 ↑

1:20p

+2 ↑

2:20p

+2 ↑

3:20p

+2 ↑

4:20p

+4 ↑

5:20p

conditions build late — the 5:20p window peaks +4

Best of game Esmerlyn Valdez conv 32 · vs Imanaga ⟷ Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 32 · vs Dotel → edge: Esmerlyn Valdez

ATTACK Shota Imanaga LHP · CHC

leak 87

1.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.88 · leakiest side of this game

1 Esmerlyn Valdez +350 B ●●●●●

2 Oneil Cruz +370 C+ ●●○○○

3 Bryan Reynolds +500 C ●●○○○

FADE Wilber Dotel RHP

leak 3

0.55 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.59 · stingy — thin edge

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong +305 C+ ●●●●●

2 Alex Bregman +625 D ●●●●○

3 Carson Kelly +850 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Esmerlyn Valdez: Match 38.8% · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PIT Esmerlyn Valdez ✶ COOL vs Imanaga Edge +350 0.282 · 91.9 · 13.8% 25.0% 38.8% F B O B 73

· — Pete Crow-Armstrong HOT vs Dotel Edge +305 0.291 · 90.5 · 8.0% 38.5% 25.3% F B O C+ 68

· — Seiya Suzuki vs Dotel +500 0.208 · 88.4 · 7.1% 15.4% 16.0% F B O C 53

· PIT Oneil Cruz COOL vs Imanaga +370 0.210 · 94.9 · 12.5% 8.3% 21.9% F B O C+ 65

· PIT Bryan Reynolds vs Imanaga Edge +500 0.161 · 91.0 · 10.5% 8.3% 12.2% F B O C 55

· — Ian Happ COOL vs Dotel Edge +500 0.192 · 89.3 · 7.4% 0.0% 11.3% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· — Alex Bregman vs Dotel +625 0.181 · 88.1 · 5.2% 23.1% 23.1% F B O D 49

· — Carson Kelly vs Dotel +850 0.127 · 87.3 · 5.2% 22.2% 12.7% F B O D 42

· — Michael Busch vs Dotel Edge +500 0.153 · 88.5 · 6.6% 16.7% 8.7% F B O D 46

· PIT Jared Triolo vs Imanaga Edge — 0.070 · 86.7 · 4.9% 11.1% 8.5% F B O D 37

· — Nico Hoerner vs Dotel — 0.093 · 85.9 · 2.5% 7.7% 8.4% F B O D 32

· PIT Jake Mangum COOL vs Imanaga Edge — 0.086 · 85.4 · 4.2% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 36

· PIT Nick Gonzales vs Imanaga Edge +850 0.088 · 86.0 · 5.2% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 38

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Shota Imanaga — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Wilber Dotel — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Valdez Cruz Crow-Armstrong Suzuki Bregman Kelly

Legend

attack side — vs Imanaga fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Esmerlyn Valdez +350 · 73

Pete Crow-Armstrong +305 · 68

Alex Bregman +625 · 49

Stadium conditions

Wrigley Field

First pitch 1:20p · roof open

Park 1.13× Wind 10 mph cross 75°F open

↑

10 mph · cross

77°F

1:20p

↑

10 mph · cross

78°F

2:20p

↑

10 mph · cross

78°F

3:20p

↑

10 mph · cross

78°F

4:20p

↑

10 mph · cross

77°F

5:20p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.13× 75°F, wind 10 mph ESE (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Shota Imanaga · LHP 1.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.88 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Esmerlyn Valdez ✶ 73 B +350 COOL 1 0.282 91.9 13.8% 36.0%vs LHP 395 20.0% 25.0% 38.8% 17

2 Oneil Cruz 65 C+ +370 COOL 8 0.210 94.9 12.5% 40.0%vs LHP 413 22.7% 8.3% 21.9% 32

3 Bryan Reynolds 55 C +500 WARM 36 0.161 91.0 10.5% 15.8%vs LHP 410 10.5% 8.3% 12.2% 38

4 Nick Gonzales 38 D +850 · 149 0.088 86.0 5.2% 3.2%vs LHP 397 5.9% 0.0% 8.1% 34

5 Jared Triolo 37 D — WARM 160 0.070 86.7 4.9% 5.6%vs LHP 409 2.4% 11.1% 8.5% 21

6 Jake Mangum 36 D — COOL 167 0.086 85.4 4.2% 5.9%vs LHP 393 4.1% 0.0% 8.5% 27

vs Wilber Dotel · RHP 0.55 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.59 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 68 C+ +305 HOT 4 0.291 90.5 8.0% 28.3%vs RHP 397 23.1% 38.5% 25.3% 42

2 Seiya Suzuki 53 C +500 · 41 0.208 88.4 7.1% 19.8%vs RHP 406 16.1% 15.4% 16.0% 41

3 Ian Happ 51 C +500 COOL 55 0.192 89.3 7.4% 24.4%vs RHP 402 17.3% 0.0% 11.3% 20

4 Alex Bregman 49 D +625 WARM 63 0.181 88.1 5.2% 18.3%vs RHP 390 12.5% 23.1% 23.1% 46

5 Michael Busch 46 D +500 · 82 0.153 88.5 6.6% 12.4%vs RHP 403 13.0% 16.7% 8.7% 36

6 Carson Kelly 42 D +850 WARM 110 0.127 87.3 5.2% 9.5%vs RHP 403 8.6% 22.2% 12.7% 28

7 Nico Hoerner 32 D — WARM 183 0.093 85.9 2.5% 6.8%vs RHP 383 5.6% 7.7% 8.4% 47

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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