TheHomeRuns.org — COL @ DET

Suppressed air · 0.94×

COL @ DET

Comerica Park · 6:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind 6 mph in 71°F Roof open

Hourly window

-7 ↑

6:40p

-7 ↑

7:40p

-7 ↑

8:40p

-7 ↑

9:40p

-6 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 10:40p window peaks -6

Best of game Spencer Torkelson conv 27 · vs Adams ⟷ Tj Rumfield conv 55 · vs Valdez → edge: Spencer Torkelson

ATTACK Mason Adams RHP · STL

leak 100

2.77 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +2.44 · leakiest side of this game

1 Spencer Torkelson — C ●●●●○

2 Riley Greene +390 C ●●●○○

3 Colt Keith +525 D ●●○○○

FADE Framber Valdez LHP · DET

leak 73

0.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.11 · stingy — thin edge

1 Tj Rumfield +950 D ●●●●●

2 Kyle Karros +950 D ●●●○○

3 Hunter Goodman +320 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Spencer Torkelson: Match 29.4% · 14D pace 25.0% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Spencer Torkelson ✶ vs Adams — 0.187 · 89.2 · 11.2% 25.0% 29.4% F B O C 56

· — Riley Greene COOL vs Adams Edge +390 0.193 · 90.3 · 12.5% 22.2% 19.9% F B O C 56

· COL Hunter Goodman COOL vs Valdez Edge +320 0.277 · 90.2 · 9.5% 9.1% 17.5% F B O C 58

· COL Mickey Moniak vs Valdez — 0.245 · 89.5 · 7.6% 11.1% 14.7% F B O C 51

· — Dillon Dingler COOL vs Adams +500 0.210 · 88.4 · 10.1% 0.0% 19.7% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· COL Tj Rumfield HOT vs Valdez +950 0.158 · 84.3 · 5.5% 100.0% 9.7% F B O D 39

· COL Kyle Karros vs Valdez Edge +950 0.164 · 89.3 · 7.0% 33.3% 10.8% F B O D 42

· — Colt Keith vs Adams Edge +525 0.147 · 88.8 · 8.9% 12.5% 12.2% F B O D 43

· — Hao-Yu Lee vs Adams +850 0.144 · 89.8 · 9.4% 8.3% 13.2% F B O D 45

· COL Cole Carrigg vs Valdez Edge +850 0.183 · 87.2 · 5.7% 11.1% 10.2% F B O D 40

· COL Jake Mccarthy HOT vs Valdez +950 0.190 · 85.5 · 5.6% 0.0% 11.9% F B O D 40

· — Gleyber Torres vs Adams +850 0.112 · 86.3 · 8.1% 0.0% 10.7% F B O D 38

· — Kevin Mcgonigle vs Adams Edge +500 0.147 · 88.0 · 8.5% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 43

· COL Troy Johnston COOL vs Valdez — 0.116 · 89.7 · 3.7% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 30

· — Zach Mckinstry COOL vs Adams Edge +900 0.100 · 85.7 · 4.7% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 31

· COL Ezequiel Tovar COOL vs Valdez Edge +950 0.119 · 87.4 · 6.2% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 34

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Framber Valdez — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Mason Adams — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Goodman Karros Rumfield Torkelson Greene

Legend

attack side — vs Adams fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Spencer Torkelson — · 56

Riley Greene +390 · 56

Stadium conditions

Comerica Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.94× Wind 6 mph in 71°F open

-7

↑

6 mph · in

73°F

6:40p

-7

↑

6 mph · in

72°F

7:40p

-7

↑

5 mph · in

71°F

8:40p

-7

↑

5 mph · in

69°F

9:40p

-6

↑

4 mph · in

67°F

10:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.94× 71°F, wind 6 mph SSE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Framber Valdez · LHP 0.86 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.11 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman 58 C +320 COOL 20 0.277 90.2 9.5% 32.1%vs LHP 410 23.5% 9.1% 17.5% 33

2 Mickey Moniak 51 C — · 56 0.245 89.5 7.6% 16.7%vs LHP 416 17.0% 11.1% 14.7% 26

3 Kyle Karros 42 D +950 WARM 119 0.164 89.3 7.0% 8.0%vs LHP 416 11.2% 33.3% 10.8% 6

4 Jake Mccarthy 40 D +950 HOT 135 0.190 85.5 5.6% 20.0%vs LHP 415 10.5% 0.0% 11.9% 45

5 Cole Carrigg 40 D +850 WARM 136 0.183 87.2 5.7% 11.5%vs LHP 402 7.3% 11.1% 10.2% 31

6 Tj Rumfield 39 D +950 HOT 144 0.158 84.3 5.5% 12.1%vs LHP 412 10.5% 100.0% 9.7% 37

7 Ezequiel Tovar 34 D +950 COOL 174 0.119 87.4 6.2% 5.3%vs LHP 409 7.3% 0.0% 6.6% 17

8 Troy Johnston 30 D — COOL 195 0.116 89.7 3.7% 8.7%vs LHP 411 2.0% 0.0% 7.0% 13

vs Mason Adams · RHP 2.77 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +2.44 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Spencer Torkelson ✶ 56 C — · 28 0.187 89.2 11.2% 25.7%vs RHP 392 14.7% 25.0% 29.4% 20

2 Riley Greene 56 C +390 COOL 29 0.193 90.3 12.5% 17.3%vs RHP 401 12.8% 22.2% 19.9% 23

3 Dillon Dingler 53 C +500 COOL 44 0.210 88.4 10.1% 26.2%vs RHP 398 17.3% 0.0% 19.7% 29

4 Hao-Yu Lee 45 D +850 WARM 92 0.144 89.8 9.4% 24.0%vs RHP 399 15.0% 8.3% 13.2% 21

5 Kevin Mcgonigle 43 D +500 · 107 0.147 88.0 8.5% 10.3%vs RHP 393 18.2% 0.0% 8.2% 40

6 Colt Keith 43 D +525 WARM 108 0.147 88.8 8.9% 12.9%vs RHP 382 7.0% 12.5% 12.2% 14

7 Gleyber Torres 38 D +850 · 154 0.112 86.3 8.1% 14.3%vs RHP 393 8.3% 0.0% 10.7% 28

8 Zach Mckinstry 31 D +900 COOL 193 0.100 85.7 4.7% 5.6%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% 20

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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