TheHomeRuns.org — CWS @ STL

Suppressed air · 0.91×

CWS @ STL

Busch Stadium · 8:15p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.83× Wind 5 mph slight_out 81°F Roof open

Hourly window

-2 ↑

7:15p

-3 ↑

8:15p

-3 ↑

9:15p

-3 ↑

10:15p

-3 ↑

11:15p

best window is early — 7:15p at -2

Best of game Colson Montgomery conv 29 · vs Liberatore ⟷ Jordan Walker conv 12 · vs Kay → edge: Munetaka Murakami

ATTACK Matthew Liberatore LHP · STL

leak 95

1.65 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.67 · leakiest side of this game

1 Colson Montgomery +475 C ●●●●○

2 Munetaka Murakami +370 C+ ●●●○○

3 Miguel Vargas +400 C ●●○○○

FADE Anthony Kay LHP · CWS

leak 90

1.28 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.34 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jordan Walker +400 C ●●○○○

2 Alec Burleson +575 D ●○○○○

3 Nolan Gorman — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Munetaka Murakami: Match 28.2% · 14D pace 15.4% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Colson Montgomery vs Liberatore +475 0.222 · 88.7 · 10.7% 30.8% 26.5% F B O C 56

· CWS Munetaka Murakami ✶ vs Liberatore +370 0.267 · 94.0 · 13.3% 15.4% 28.2% F B O C+ 61

· STL Jordan Walker COOL vs Kay Edge +400 0.208 · 92.4 · 10.3% 9.1% 14.4% F B O C 50

· CWS Miguel Vargas COOL vs Liberatore Edge +400 0.229 · 90.5 · 11.1% 8.3% 14.4% F B O C 53

· CWS Randal Grichuk vs Liberatore Edge +350 0.274 · 91.4 · 10.2% 0.0% 21.7% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· CWS Andrew Benintendi vs Liberatore — 0.178 · 89.3 · 9.0% 7.7% 10.0% F B O D 42

· STL Alec Burleson vs Kay +575 0.184 · 92.0 · 9.5% 8.3% 7.9% F B O D 45

· CWS Braden Montgomery COOL vs Liberatore Edge +850 0.134 · 88.7 · 6.2% 8.3% 6.5% F B O D 33

· STL Nolan Gorman vs Kay — 0.134 · 89.6 · 9.3% 8.3% 6.0% F B O D 39

· CWS Tristan Peters vs Liberatore — 0.185 · 87.6 · 7.3% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 39

· STL Ivan Herrera vs Kay Edge +700 0.135 · 89.3 · 6.7% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 32

· STL Masyn Winn COOL vs Kay Edge +950 0.087 · 88.2 · 5.5% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 27

· CWS Chase Meidroth COOL vs Liberatore Edge — 0.122 · 87.3 · 6.1% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 31

· STL José Fermín COOL vs Kay Edge — 0.110 · 86.0 · 4.3% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 28

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Kay — 0.119 · 85.9 · 6.9% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 32

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs Liberatore — 0.121 · 87.3 · 6.8% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Matthew Liberatore — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Anthony Kay — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Murakami Montgomery

Legend

attack side — vs Liberatore fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Colson Montgomery +475 · 56

Stadium conditions

Busch Stadium

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 0.83× Wind 5 mph slight_out 81°F open

-2

↑

5 mph · slight_out

82°F

7:15p · peak

-3

↑

5 mph · slight_out

79°F

8:15p

-3

↑

5 mph · slight_out

77°F

9:15p

-3

↑

5 mph · slight_out

75°F

10:15p

-3

↑

5 mph · slight_out

74°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.91× 81°F, wind 5 mph S (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Matthew Liberatore · LHP 1.65 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.67 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami ✶ 61 C+ +370 · 13 0.267 94.0 13.3% 28.6%vs LHP 401 18.7% 15.4% 28.2% 23

2 Colson Montgomery 56 C +475 WARM 25 0.222 88.7 10.7% 32.3%vs LHP 397 22.1% 30.8% 26.5% 26

3 Miguel Vargas 53 C +400 COOL 42 0.229 90.5 11.1% 28.6%vs LHP 392 19.7% 8.3% 14.4% 37

4 Randal Grichuk 51 C +350 WARM 51 0.274 91.4 10.2% 25.7%vs LHP 390 13.9% 0.0% 21.7% 14

5 Andrew Benintendi 42 D — WARM 115 0.178 89.3 9.0% 12.2% 388 12.1% 7.7% 10.0% 31

6 Tristan Peters 39 D — WARM 139 0.185 87.6 7.3% 9.1%vs LHP 377 11.1% 0.0% 9.9% 33

7 Braden Montgomery 33 D +850 COOL 179 0.134 88.7 6.2% 7.7%vs LHP 395 7.0% 8.3% 6.5% 36

8 Sam Antonacci 32 D — COOL 187 0.121 87.3 6.8% 0.0%vs LHP 390 7.4% 0.0% 5.9% 38

9 Chase Meidroth 31 D — COOL 191 0.122 87.3 6.1% 16.7%vs LHP 379 7.1% 0.0% 7.2% 31

vs Anthony Kay · LHP 1.28 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.34 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 50 C +400 COOL 58 0.208 92.4 10.3% 34.6%vs LHP 406 17.3% 9.1% 14.4% 31

2 Alec Burleson 45 D +575 · 91 0.184 92.0 9.5% 8.3%vs LHP 406 14.3% 8.3% 7.9% 35

3 Nolan Gorman 39 D — WARM 143 0.134 89.6 9.3% 11.1%vs LHP 407 9.7% 8.3% 6.0% 26

4 Ivan Herrera 32 D +700 · 182 0.135 89.3 6.7% 17.9%vs LHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 44

5 Nathan Church 32 D — COOL 186 0.119 85.9 6.9% 14.3%vs LHP 386 7.7% 0.0% 6.2% 40

6 José Fermín 28 D — COOL 204 0.110 86.0 4.3% 12.9%vs LHP 390 5.6% 0.0% 7.1% 31

7 Masyn Winn 27 D +950 COOL 208 0.087 88.2 5.5% 5.0%vs LHP 385 4.1% 0.0% 7.8% 4

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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