TheHomeRuns.org — SEA @ ATH

Sutter Health Park is live · 1.84×

SEA @ ATH

Sutter Health Park · 9:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.23× Wind 12 mph out 82°F Roof open

Hourly window

+19 ↑

6:40p

+17 ↑

7:40p

+17 ↑

8:40p

+16 ↑

9:40p

+14 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +19

Best of game Cal Raleigh conv 28 · vs Springs ⟷ Zack Gelof conv 27 · vs Kirby → edge: Cal Raleigh

ATTACK Jeffrey Springs LHP · ATH

leak 92

2.33 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.38 · leakiest side of this game

1 Cal Raleigh +192 C+ ●●●●○

2 Randy Arozarena +350 C+ ●●●○○

3 Dominic Canzone +350 C+ ●●●○○

FADE George Kirby RHP · SEA

leak 76

1.14 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.05 · stingy — thin edge

1 Zack Gelof +425 C+ ●●●●○

2 Henry Bolte +575 D ●●●○○

3 Jonah Heim +575 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Cal Raleigh: Match 31.0% · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SEA Cal Raleigh ✶ vs Springs Edge +192 0.190 · 89.8 · 11.7% 25.0% 31.0% F B O C+ 67

· ATH Zack Gelof vs Kirby +425 0.208 · 89.2 · 8.1% 23.1% 30.3% F B O C+ 60

· SEA Randy Arozarena vs Springs Edge +350 0.188 · 90.5 · 8.4% 15.4% 22.1% F B O C+ 61

· SEA Dominic Canzone vs Springs +350 0.217 · 91.1 · 10.4% 15.4% 21.9% F B O C+ 65

· SEA Julio Rodríguez vs Springs Edge +305 0.155 · 90.1 · 8.9% 7.7% 13.8% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· ATH Henry Bolte vs Kirby +575 0.125 · 91.0 · 7.3% 23.1% 15.4% F B O D 48

· ATH Jonah Heim vs Kirby Edge +575 0.174 · 87.9 · 6.7% 14.3% 14.4% F B O D 49

· ATH Jeff Mcneil vs Kirby Edge +700 0.103 · 86.6 · 3.5% 14.3% 9.7% F B O D 37

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Kirby Edge +500 0.137 · 89.6 · 7.2% 7.7% 11.1% F B O D 46

· ATH Carlos Cortes COOL vs Kirby Edge +625 0.142 · 88.5 · 6.6% 0.0% 11.0% F B O D 44

· SEA Cole Young vs Springs +525 0.135 · 88.1 · 6.7% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 49

· SEA Josh Naylor COOL vs Springs +525 0.094 · 87.0 · 6.2% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 43

· SEA J.P. Crawford COOL vs Springs +700 0.119 · 87.9 · 7.1% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 45

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Jeffrey Springs — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for George Kirby — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Raleigh Canzone Arozarena Gelof Heim Bolte

Legend

attack side — vs Springs fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Cal Raleigh +192 · 67

Zack Gelof +425 · 60

Stadium conditions

Sutter Health Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.23× Wind 12 mph out 82°F open

+19

↑

12 mph · out

79°F

6:40p · peak

+17

↑

11 mph · out

77°F

7:40p

+17

↑

11 mph · out

74°F

8:40p

+16

↑

11 mph · out

72°F

9:40p

+14

↑

10 mph · out

69°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.84× 82°F, wind 12 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jeffrey Springs · LHP 2.33 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.38 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Cal Raleigh ✶ 67 C+ +192 WARM 5 0.190 89.8 11.7% 26.9%vs LHP 383 16.0% 25.0% 31.0% 29

2 Dominic Canzone 65 C+ +350 · 9 0.217 91.1 10.4% 28.6%vs LHP 404 14.9% 15.4% 21.9% 41

3 Randy Arozarena 61 C+ +350 · 15 0.188 90.5 8.4% 23.3%vs LHP 386 14.8% 15.4% 22.1% 32

4 Julio Rodríguez 56 C +305 WARM 26 0.155 90.1 8.9% 19.5%vs LHP 404 15.4% 7.7% 13.8% 39

5 Cole Young 49 D +525 WARM 65 0.135 88.1 6.7% 9.1%vs LHP 383 10.8% 0.0% 10.6% 31

6 J.P. Crawford 45 D +700 COOL 84 0.119 87.9 7.1% 10.0%vs LHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% 32

7 Josh Naylor 43 D +525 COOL 103 0.094 87.0 6.2% 10.7%vs LHP 392 5.7% 0.0% 10.6% 43

vs George Kirby · RHP 1.14 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.05 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Zack Gelof 60 C+ +425 WARM 17 0.208 89.2 8.1% 24.5%vs RHP 397 20.0% 23.1% 30.3% 36

2 Jonah Heim 49 D +575 WARM 64 0.174 87.9 6.7% 7.3%vs RHP 409 9.1% 14.3% 14.4% 33

3 Henry Bolte 48 D +575 WARM 68 0.125 91.0 7.3% 8.3%vs RHP 397 12.1% 23.1% 15.4% 35

4 Lawrence Butler 46 D +500 WARM 81 0.137 89.6 7.2% 19.6%vs RHP 408 8.7% 7.7% 11.1% 31

5 Carlos Cortes 44 D +625 COOL 95 0.142 88.5 6.6% 16.0%vs RHP 400 5.0% 0.0% 11.0% 27

6 Jeff Mcneil 37 D +700 · 157 0.103 86.6 3.5% 12.5%vs RHP 380 6.4% 14.3% 9.7% 46

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

10 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.