TheHomeRuns.org — LAD @ MIA

Suppressed air · 0.77×

LAD @ MIA

loanDepot Park · 7:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.85× Wind 12 mph in 84°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

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7:10p

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8:10p

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9:10p

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10:10p

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11:10p

conditions hold steady across the window · -14 FIT

Best of game Max Muncy conv 22 · vs Gusto ⟷ Heriberto Hernández conv 27 · vs Proxy → edge: Heriberto Hernández

ATTACK Ryan Gusto RHP · MIA

leak 54

1.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.15 · leakiest side of this game

1 Max Muncy +370 C ●●●○○

2 Mookie Betts +750 D ●●●○○

3 Kyle Tucker +575 D ●●○○○

FADE LAD Bullpen Proxy · LAD

leak 54

1.20 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Heriberto Hernández +625 C ●●●●○

2 Kyle Stowers +700 C ●●●●○

3 Griffin Conine +750 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Heriberto Hernández: Match 22.9% · 14D pace 30.8% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIA Heriberto Hernández ✶ vs Proxy +625 0.234 · 91.5 · 14.1% 30.8% 22.9% F B O C 58

· MIA Kyle Stowers HOT vs Proxy +700 0.224 · 92.6 · 12.5% 30.0% 20.9% F B O C 54

· LAD Max Muncy COOL vs Gusto Edge +370 0.243 · 90.5 · 10.6% 26.7% 17.3% F B O C 55

· MIA Griffin Conine vs Proxy +750 0.226 · 91.8 · 15.0% 12.5% 14.1% F B O C 53

· LAD Shohei Ohtani COOL vs Gusto Edge — 0.245 · 93.2 · 11.5% 0.0% 14.1% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· LAD Mookie Betts vs Gusto +750 0.181 · 90.1 · 8.0% 25.0% 17.0% F B O D 43

· LAD Kyle Tucker vs Gusto Edge +575 0.136 · 88.7 · 7.1% 16.7% 7.8% F B O D 35

· MIA Javier Sanoja vs Proxy — 0.147 · 87.0 · 2.2% 15.4% 7.0% F B O D 28

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Gusto Edge — 0.156 · 89.5 · 8.3% 8.3% 7.8% F B O D 38

· MIA Jakob Marsee vs Proxy — 0.116 · 87.4 · 3.6% 9.1% 6.2% F B O D 27

· LAD Tommy Edman COOL vs Gusto Edge +850 0.136 · 87.7 · 6.7% 8.3% 6.2% F B O D 33

· MIA Otto Lopez vs Proxy — 0.138 · 89.1 · 6.2% 7.7% 6.5% F B O D 32

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez HOT vs Gusto +625 0.156 · 90.2 · 9.5% 0.0% 10.7% F B O D 36

· MIA Esteury Ruiz COOL vs Proxy — 0.175 · 85.4 · 8.2% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 37

· MIA Agustin Ramirez vs Proxy +950 0.103 · 89.2 · 3.7% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 25

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Ryan Gusto — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for LAD Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Muncy Betts Hernández Stowers Conine

Legend

attack side — vs Gusto fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Heriberto Hernández +625 · 58

Kyle Stowers +700 · 54

Stadium conditions

loanDepot Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof retractable

Park 0.85× Wind 12 mph in 84°F retractable

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12 mph · in

90°F

7:10p · peak

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12 mph · in

90°F

8:10p

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12 mph · in

90°F

9:10p

-14

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12 mph · in

90°F

10:10p

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12 mph · in

90°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.77× 84°F, wind 12 mph ESE (in) — modifier: -1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Ryan Gusto · RHP 1.13 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.15 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Max Muncy 55 C +370 COOL 37 0.243 90.5 10.6% 26.9%vs RHP 410 22.1% 26.7% 17.3% 50

2 Shohei Ohtani 53 C — COOL 48 0.245 93.2 11.5% 25.4%vs RHP 407 17.9% 0.0% 14.1% 11

3 Mookie Betts 43 D +750 · 116 0.181 90.1 8.0% 17.3%vs RHP 389 12.6% 25.0% 17.0% 38

4 Freddie Freeman 38 D — COOL 168 0.156 89.5 8.3% 13.8%vs RHP 399 9.9% 8.3% 7.8% 21

5 Teoscar Hernandez 36 D +625 HOT 181 0.156 90.2 9.5% 13.7%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 10.7% 33

6 Kyle Tucker 35 D +575 WARM 190 0.136 88.7 7.1% 11.5%vs RHP 390 8.1% 16.7% 7.8% 34

7 Tommy Edman 33 D +850 COOL 206 0.136 87.7 6.7% 7.1%vs RHP 396 8.9% 8.3% 6.2% 41

vs LAD Bullpen Proxy 1.20 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Heriberto Hernández ✶ 58 C +625 WARM 41 0.234 91.5 14.1% 22.4% 406 18.1% 30.8% 22.9% 33

2 Kyle Stowers 54 C +700 HOT 66 0.224 92.6 12.5% 18.4% 400 14.9% 30.0% 20.9% 23

3 Griffin Conine 53 C +750 · 72 0.226 91.8 15.0% 28.8% 410 16.7% 12.5% 14.1% 28

4 Esteury Ruiz 37 D — COOL 197 0.175 85.4 8.2% 12.8% 384 9.3% 0.0% 9.0% 11

5 Otto Lopez 32 D — · 231 0.138 89.1 6.2% 7.4% 402 6.3% 7.7% 6.5% 42

6 Javier Sanoja 28 D — · 241 0.147 87.0 2.2% 7.5% 381 7.8% 15.4% 7.0% 48

7 Jakob Marsee 27 D — WARM 242 0.116 87.4 3.6% 7.4% 382 7.8% 9.1% 6.2% 36

8 Agustin Ramirez 25 D +950 · 245 0.103 89.2 3.7% 8.8% 418 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 22

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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