TheHomeRuns.org — HOU @ TB

Playable air · 1.07×

HOU @ TB

Tropicana Field · 7:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.07× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Junior Caminero conv 35 · vs Ullola ⟷ Cam Smith conv 27 · vs Rasmussen → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Miguel Ullola RHP

leak 90

2.57 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.71 · leakiest side of this game

1 Junior Caminero +265 B ●●●●●

2 Richie Palacios +950 D ●●●●●

3 Jonathan Aranda +500 C ●●●○○

FADE Drew Rasmussen RHP · TB

leak 77

0.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.11 · stingy — thin edge

1 Cam Smith +625 C ●●●●○

2 Isaac Paredes +575 D ●●○○○

3 Yainer Diaz +750 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: Match 38.9% · 14D pace 30.8%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Junior Caminero ✶ vs Ullola +265 0.249 · 92.9 · 11.8% 30.8% 38.9% F B O B 70

· HOU Cam Smith COOL vs Rasmussen +625 0.190 · 89.1 · 8.3% 33.3% 20.8% F B O C 52

· — Jonathan Aranda vs Ullola Edge +500 0.149 · 91.1 · 10.1% 27.3% 17.3% F B O C 53

· HOU Yordan Alvarez COOL vs Rasmussen Edge +305 0.280 · 94.2 · 9.8% 0.0% 21.0% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· — Richie Palacios vs Ullola Edge +950 0.139 · 86.0 · 6.8% 50.0% 16.2% F B O D 47

· HOU Isaac Paredes COOL vs Rasmussen +575 0.165 · 86.1 · 5.5% 15.4% 11.3% F B O D 42

· HOU Yainer Diaz vs Rasmussen +750 0.160 · 88.9 · 6.2% 12.5% 11.8% F B O D 42

· HOU Christian Walker COOL vs Rasmussen +525 0.196 · 89.0 · 7.3% 8.3% 13.3% F B O D 48

· HOU Jeremy Peña vs Rasmussen +625 0.183 · 88.5 · 6.3% 7.7% 13.1% F B O D 45

· — Cedric Mullins COOL vs Ullola Edge +575 0.141 · 87.8 · 6.7% 11.1% 9.6% F B O D 44

· — Yandy Diaz HOT vs Ullola +575 0.166 · 91.1 · 8.8% 0.0% 17.5% F B O D 46

· — Jonny Deluca COOL vs Ullola — 0.155 · 85.6 · 5.9% 0.0% 12.4% F B O D 41

· HOU Taylor Trammell COOL vs Rasmussen Edge +625 0.155 · 87.8 · 8.4% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 43

· HOU Jose Altuve COOL vs Rasmussen +750 0.153 · 85.5 · 5.2% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 35

· — Nick Fortes COOL vs Ullola — 0.098 · 85.1 · 4.7% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 35

· HOU Christian Vazquez COOL vs Rasmussen — 0.120 · 86.0 · 3.6% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 31

· — Chandler Simpson COOL vs Ullola Edge — 0.050 · 83.7 · — 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 21

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Drew Rasmussen — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Miguel Ullola — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Smith Paredes Caminero Aranda Palacios

Legend

attack side — vs Ullola fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Junior Caminero +265 · 70

Cam Smith +625 · 52

Stadium conditions

Tropicana Field

First pitch 7:10p · roof unknown

Park 1.07× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Boost · Combined 1.07× Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Drew Rasmussen · RHP 0.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.11 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez 55 C +305 COOL 31 0.280 94.2 9.8% 25.0%vs RHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 21.0% 36

2 Cam Smith 52 C +625 COOL 46 0.190 89.1 8.3% 19.6%vs RHP 409 14.2% 33.3% 20.8% 24

3 Christian Walker 48 D +525 COOL 71 0.196 89.0 7.3% 23.5%vs RHP 393 16.9% 8.3% 13.3% 36

4 Jeremy Peña 45 D +625 · 88 0.183 88.5 6.3% 28.3%vs RHP 387 15.1% 7.7% 13.1% 38

5 Taylor Trammell 43 D +625 COOL 102 0.155 87.8 8.4% 18.4%vs RHP 413 11.1% 0.0% 10.9% 21

6 Yainer Diaz 42 D +750 WARM 111 0.160 88.9 6.2% 31.2%vs RHP 391 10.9% 12.5% 11.8% 27

7 Isaac Paredes 42 D +575 COOL 114 0.165 86.1 5.5% 17.0%vs RHP 377 12.1% 15.4% 11.3% 37

8 Jose Altuve 35 D +750 COOL 170 0.153 85.5 5.2% 20.0%vs RHP 377 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 38

9 Christian Vazquez 31 D — COOL 189 0.120 86.0 3.6% 17.6%vs RHP 375 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% 12

vs Miguel Ullola · RHP 2.57 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.71 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 70 B +265 · 2 0.249 92.9 11.8% 40.5%vs RHP 415 25.2% 30.8% 38.9% 41

2 Jonathan Aranda 53 C +500 · 40 0.149 91.1 10.1% 16.7%vs RHP 392 12.6% 27.3% 17.3% 33

3 Richie Palacios 47 D +950 WARM 74 0.139 86.0 6.8% 16.7%vs RHP 388 8.4% 50.0% 16.2% 23

4 Yandy Diaz 46 D +575 HOT 79 0.166 91.1 8.8% 25.5%vs RHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 17.5% 47

5 Cedric Mullins 44 D +575 COOL 96 0.141 87.8 6.7% 16.1%vs RHP 387 11.4% 11.1% 9.6% 27

6 Jonny Deluca 41 D — COOL 121 0.155 85.6 5.9% 23.3%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 12.4% 29

7 Nick Fortes 35 D — COOL 171 0.098 85.1 4.7% 15.8%vs RHP 396 4.0% 0.0% 9.6% 11

8 Chandler Simpson 21 D — COOL 216 0.050 83.7 — 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 49

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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