TheHomeRuns.org — LAA @ WSH

Nationals Park is live · 1.29×

LAA @ WSH

Nationals Park · 6:45p · 11 ranked batters

Park 1.17× Wind 3 mph slight_out 81°F Roof open

Hourly window

+6 ↑

6:45p

+5 ↑

7:45p

+5 ↑

8:45p

+6 ↑

9:45p

+7 ↑

10:45p

conditions build late — the 10:45p window peaks +7

Best of game Zach Neto conv 27 · vs Cavalli ⟷ Cj Abrams conv 21 · vs Kikuchi → edge: James Wood

ATTACK Cade Cavalli RHP · WSH

leak 76

0.97 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.25 · leakiest side of this game

1 Zach Neto +500 C ●●●●○

2 Josh Lowe +750 D ●●○○○

3 Vaughn Grissom +850 D ●○○○○

FADE Yusei Kikuchi LHP · LAA

leak 45

1.29 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.36 · stingy — thin edge

1 Cj Abrams +525 C+ ●●●○○

2 Keibert Ruiz — D ●●●○○

3 Dylan Crews +425 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is James Wood: Match 22.2%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· LAA Zach Neto vs Cavalli +500 0.199 · 89.7 · 9.2% 27.3% 26.0% F B O C 56

· WSH Cj Abrams vs Kikuchi +525 0.230 · 89.6 · 9.6% 25.0% 17.7% F B O C+ 60

· WSH Daylen Lile HOT vs Kikuchi — 0.181 · 88.7 · 9.2% 8.3% 14.2% F B O C 51

· WSH James Wood ✶ vs Kikuchi +370 0.260 · 95.3 · 13.7% 0.0% 22.2% F B O C+ 68

· LAA Mike Trout COOL vs Cavalli +500 0.181 · 89.9 · 10.6% 0.0% 14.4% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· WSH Keibert Ruiz vs Kikuchi Edge — 0.173 · 88.2 · 6.6% 14.3% 19.0% F B O D 48

· LAA Josh Lowe vs Cavalli Edge +750 0.147 · 88.6 · 7.8% 11.1% 19.2% F B O D 45

· WSH Dylan Crews COOL vs Kikuchi Edge +425 0.154 · 90.4 · 9.1% 9.1% 13.6% F B O D 49

· LAA Vaughn Grissom COOL vs Cavalli +850 0.140 · 87.8 · 7.2% 8.3% 10.9% F B O D 42

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs Kikuchi Edge +850 0.141 · 87.7 · 7.3% 0.0% 10.4% F B O D 42

· LAA Oswald Peraza COOL vs Cavalli — 0.115 · 87.3 · 6.8% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 37

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Cade Cavalli — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Yusei Kikuchi — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Neto Lowe Wood Abrams Ruiz

Legend

attack side — vs Cavalli fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Zach Neto +500 · 56

Stadium conditions

Nationals Park

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 1.17× Wind 3 mph slight_out 81°F open

↑

3 mph · slight_out

81°F

6:45p

↑

4 mph · cross

80°F

7:45p

↑

4 mph · cross

79°F

8:45p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

78°F

9:45p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

76°F

10:45p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.29× 81°F, wind 3 mph ESE (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Cade Cavalli · RHP 0.97 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.25 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Zach Neto 56 C +500 · 24 0.199 89.7 9.2% 18.7%vs RHP 403 16.7% 27.3% 26.0% 28

2 Mike Trout 51 C +500 COOL 49 0.181 89.9 10.6% 21.1%vs RHP 409 12.9% 0.0% 14.4% 32

3 Josh Lowe 45 D +750 WARM 85 0.147 88.6 7.8% 18.6%vs RHP 394 10.0% 11.1% 19.2% 12

4 Vaughn Grissom 42 D +850 COOL 118 0.140 87.8 7.2% 19.1%vs RHP 391 8.9% 8.3% 10.9% 36

5 Oswald Peraza 37 D — COOL 158 0.115 87.3 6.8% 8.0%vs RHP 386 4.9% 0.0% 8.7% 14

vs Yusei Kikuchi · LHP 1.29 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.36 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 James Wood ✶ 68 C+ +370 WARM 3 0.260 95.3 13.7% 40.9%vs LHP 413 24.3% 0.0% 22.2% 19

2 Cj Abrams 60 C+ +525 WARM 18 0.230 89.6 9.6% 23.3%vs LHP 396 30.8% 25.0% 17.7% 23

3 Daylen Lile 51 C — HOT 50 0.181 88.7 9.2% 4.0%vs LHP 400 11.5% 8.3% 14.2% 30

4 Dylan Crews 49 D +425 COOL 62 0.154 90.4 9.1% 23.1%vs LHP 407 13.8% 9.1% 13.6% 29

5 Keibert Ruiz 48 D — WARM 67 0.173 88.2 6.6% 21.4%vs LHP 380 11.3% 14.3% 19.0% 16

6 Jacob Young 42 D +850 COOL 109 0.141 87.7 7.3% 9.7%vs LHP 399 6.6% 0.0% 10.4% 20

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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