TheHomeRuns.org — SD @ SF

Oracle Park is live · 1.21×

SD @ SF

Oracle Park · 10:15p · 11 ranked batters

Park 0.86× Wind 12 mph out 71°F Roof open

Hourly window

+7 ↑

7:15p

+6 ↑

8:15p

+6 ↑

9:15p

+5 ↑

10:15p

+4 ↑

11:15p

best window is early — 7:15p at +7

Best of game Manny Machado conv 17 · vs Molina ⟷ Rafael Devers conv 30 · vs Ray → edge: Rafael Devers

ATTACK Anthony Molina RHP · SF

leak 81

1.40 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.56 · leakiest side of this game

1 Manny Machado +500 D ●●●○○

2 Jackson Merrill +575 D ●●●○○

3 Ty France +700 D ●●○○○

FADE Robbie Ray LHP · SF

leak 3

1.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.11 · stingy — thin edge

1 Rafael Devers +500 C+ ●●●●●

2 Bryce Eldridge +575 D ●●○○○

3 Drew Gilbert — D ○○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Rafael Devers: Match 18.0% · 14D pace 41.7%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SD Rafael Devers ✶ HOT vs Ray +500 0.260 · 93.0 · 10.2% 41.7% 18.0% F B O C+ 60

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· SD Manny Machado vs Molina +500 0.190 · 90.5 · 8.5% 18.2% 15.4% F B O D 46

· SD Jackson Merrill HOT vs Molina Edge +575 0.186 · 91.3 · 9.6% 16.7% 16.6% F B O D 47

· SD Ty France vs Molina +700 0.214 · 91.9 · 8.5% 16.7% 15.8% F B O D 47

· SD Bryce Eldridge vs Ray +575 0.191 · 92.5 · 9.8% 15.4% 10.5% F B O D 48

· SD Jake Cronenworth COOL vs Molina Edge +950 0.081 · 87.0 · 4.7% 10.0% 6.7% F B O D 26

· SD Fernando Tatis COOL vs Molina — 0.165 · 92.9 · 9.6% 0.0% 13.0% F B O D 38

· SD Freddy Fermin HOT vs Molina — 0.107 · 87.6 · 5.5% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 28

· SD Xander Bogaerts vs Molina +850 0.099 · 89.3 · 6.5% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 29

· SD Drew Gilbert COOL vs Ray — 0.141 · 86.4 · 6.6% 0.0% 5.7% F B O D 34

· SD Jung Hoo Lee vs Ray — 0.126 · 87.6 · 4.5% 0.0% 5.1% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Robbie Ray — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Anthony Molina — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Devers Merrill France Machado

Legend

attack side — vs Molina fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Rafael Devers +500 · 60

Stadium conditions

Oracle Park

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 0.86× Wind 12 mph out 71°F open

↑

12 mph · out

70°F

7:15p · peak

↑

11 mph · out

67°F

8:15p

↑

11 mph · out

66°F

9:15p

↑

10 mph · out

65°F

10:15p

↑

10 mph · out

63°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.21× 71°F, wind 12 mph WSW (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Robbie Ray · LHP 1.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.11 · 4 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers ✶ 60 C+ +500 HOT 19 0.260 93.0 10.2% 15.6%vs LHP 398 22.0% 41.7% 18.0% 32

2 Bryce Eldridge 48 D +575 · 73 0.191 92.5 9.8% 22.7%vs LHP 398 18.2% 15.4% 10.5% 35

3 Drew Gilbert 34 D — COOL 175 0.141 86.4 6.6% 10.0% 394 6.5% 0.0% 5.7% 20

4 Jung Hoo Lee 29 D — WARM 201 0.126 87.6 4.5% 8.0%vs LHP 382 5.3% 0.0% 5.1% 39

vs Anthony Molina · RHP 1.40 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.56 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jackson Merrill 47 D +575 HOT 75 0.186 91.3 9.6% 20.0%vs RHP 410 15.9% 16.7% 16.6% 40

2 Ty France 47 D +700 · 76 0.214 91.9 8.5% 26.8%vs RHP 390 15.6% 16.7% 15.8% 34

3 Manny Machado 46 D +500 WARM 83 0.190 90.5 8.5% 26.6%vs RHP 398 17.3% 18.2% 15.4% 31

4 Fernando Tatis 38 D — COOL 153 0.165 92.9 9.6% 15.6%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 42

5 Xander Bogaerts 29 D +850 WARM 200 0.099 89.3 6.5% 15.4%vs RHP 400 7.4% 0.0% 7.1% 30

6 Freddy Fermin 28 D — HOT 206 0.107 87.6 5.5% 6.5%vs RHP 382 2.1% 0.0% 7.8% 7

7 Jake Cronenworth 26 D +950 COOL 210 0.081 87.0 4.7% 9.5%vs RHP 382 3.2% 10.0% 6.7% 27

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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