TheHomeRuns.org — BAL @ TOR

Suppressed air · 0.95×

BAL @ TOR

Rogers Centre · 7:07p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.95× Wind 2 mph out 67°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

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7:07p

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the 9:07p window peaks +1

Best of game Coby Mayo conv 25 · vs Scherzer ⟷ Kazuma Okamoto conv 28 · vs Bassitt → edge: Coby Mayo

ATTACK Max Scherzer RHP · TOR

leak 95

1.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.50 · leakiest side of this game

1 Coby Mayo +390 C+ ●●●●○

2 Pete Alonso +290 C+ ●●●○○

3 Colton Cowser +525 D ●●○○○

FADE Chris Bassitt RHP · BAL

leak 4

0.97 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.18 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kazuma Okamoto +500 C ●●●●○

2 George Springer +525 D ●○○○○

3 Nathan Lukes +950 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Coby Mayo: Match 25.9% · 14D pace 25.0% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto HOT vs Bassitt +500 0.219 · 90.5 · 8.5% 36.4% 20.5% F B O C 56

· BAL Coby Mayo ✶ COOL vs Scherzer +390 0.241 · 91.3 · 10.8% 25.0% 25.9% F B O C+ 61

· BAL Pete Alonso vs Scherzer +290 0.229 · 94.2 · 11.2% 15.4% 23.3% F B O C+ 62

· BAL Samuel Basallo COOL vs Scherzer Edge +370 0.188 · 90.2 · 10.6% 0.0% 13.1% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· BAL Colton Cowser COOL vs Scherzer Edge +525 0.151 · 88.0 · 9.6% 10.0% 11.7% F B O D 48

· BAL Gunnar Henderson COOL vs Scherzer Edge +500 0.175 · 89.2 · 7.8% 7.7% 13.8% F B O D 48

· TOR George Springer HOT vs Bassitt +525 0.162 · 88.5 · 6.0% 11.1% 8.3% F B O D 40

· TOR Nathan Lukes vs Bassitt Edge +950 0.118 · 87.0 · 3.6% 10.0% 8.1% F B O D 33

· BAL Jackson Holliday vs Scherzer Edge +750 0.117 · 87.1 · 7.7% 10.0% 8.0% F B O D 39

· TOR Jesús Sánchez vs Bassitt Edge +500 0.156 · 91.0 · 7.6% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 41

· BAL Leody Taveras COOL vs Scherzer Edge +850 0.130 · 88.2 · 6.0% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 37

· TOR Andres Gimenez vs Bassitt Edge +950 0.116 · 85.4 · 4.2% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 29

· TOR Vladimir Guerrero vs Bassitt — 0.092 · 90.6 · 6.0% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 32

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Bassitt +800 0.108 · 84.1 · 3.3% 0.0% 5.5% F B O D 29

· TOR Myles Straw COOL vs Bassitt +950 0.110 · 86.2 · 4.0% 0.0% 5.3% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Max Scherzer — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Chris Bassitt — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alonso Mayo Okamoto

Legend

attack side — vs Scherzer fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Kazuma Okamoto +500 · 56

Coby Mayo +390 · 61

Stadium conditions

Rogers Centre

First pitch 7:07p · roof retractable

Park 0.95× Wind 2 mph out 67°F retractable

↑

2 mph · out

69°F

7:07p

-1

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2 mph · slight_out

67°F

8:07p

↑

3 mph · out

65°F

9:07p · peak

↑

3 mph · out

63°F

10:07p

↑

3 mph · out

61°F

11:07p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.95× 67°F, wind 2 mph SE (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Max Scherzer · RHP 1.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.50 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso 62 C+ +290 · 12 0.229 94.2 11.2% 31.2%vs RHP 402 21.2% 15.4% 23.3% 32

2 Coby Mayo ✶ 61 C+ +390 COOL 14 0.241 91.3 10.8% 11.6%vs RHP 411 17.9% 25.0% 25.9% 28

3 Samuel Basallo 51 C +370 COOL 53 0.188 90.2 10.6% 26.8%vs RHP 399 13.6% 0.0% 13.1% 21

4 Gunnar Henderson 48 D +500 COOL 70 0.175 89.2 7.8% 17.1%vs RHP 393 13.9% 7.7% 13.8% 32

5 Colton Cowser 48 D +525 COOL 72 0.151 88.0 9.6% 20.7%vs RHP 412 15.2% 10.0% 11.7% 17

6 Jackson Holliday 39 D +750 · 142 0.117 87.1 7.7% 15.4%vs RHP 389 4.6% 10.0% 8.0% 31

7 Leody Taveras 37 D +850 COOL 161 0.130 88.2 6.0% 12.7%vs RHP 403 4.8% 0.0% 7.7% 17

vs Chris Bassitt · RHP 0.97 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.18 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto 56 C +500 HOT 27 0.219 90.5 8.5% 26.0%vs RHP 400 18.7% 36.4% 20.5% 28

2 Jesús Sánchez 41 D +500 WARM 123 0.156 91.0 7.6% 16.7%vs RHP 398 9.0% 0.0% 9.7% 10

3 George Springer 40 D +525 HOT 127 0.162 88.5 6.0% 19.6%vs RHP 395 10.9% 11.1% 8.3% 28

4 Nathan Lukes 33 D +950 WARM 178 0.118 87.0 3.6% 16.1%vs RHP 382 8.0% 10.0% 8.1% 39

5 Vladimir Guerrero 32 D — WARM 188 0.092 90.6 6.0% 9.4%vs RHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 43

6 Myles Straw 30 D +950 COOL 194 0.110 86.2 4.0% 4.2%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 5.3% 23

7 Andres Gimenez 29 D +950 WARM 197 0.116 85.4 4.2% 9.8%vs RHP 389 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 29

8 Ernie Clement 29 D +800 COOL 199 0.108 84.1 3.3% 5.9%vs RHP 376 6.7% 0.0% 5.5% 37

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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