0
HRs allowed
0%
HR rate (pool)
10.4%
Overall HR/FB
3.15
FIP
3.74
xFIP
#30
Leakiest SP today (of 30, by FIP−xFIP)
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
27
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 27th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
—
Hard-Hit% allowed
—
Fly-ball rate
—
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
Not enough scored game days for a trend line yet.
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
Overall
Score
Neutral · 3
Long shots · 4 — below the fade line
3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge.
Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
No arsenal data cached for this pitcher.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups0
HRs allowed (pool)0
Pool HR rate0%
Pool HR/game day—
Top-15 matchups0
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB10.4% 27
HR/9—
FIP3.15 16
xFIP3.74
FIP − xFIP—
Barrel% allowed—
Hard-Hit% allowed—
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-09-11
No arsenal data cached for this pitcher.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
BatterPAHHRKwOBALast damage
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
0 allowed · scored pool
No home runs allowed in our scored matchups.
Game-day log
last 0 scored game days · pool
No scored game days yet for Wilber Dotel.
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight — Wrigley Field
open-air · game-window conditions
Park Factor
1.130
Wind
10 mph from ESE
Temp
75°F
Roof
Open
TimeWindTempFIT
1:20p
10
75°
+2
2:20p
10
76°
+2
3:20p
10
78°
+2
4:20p
10
79°
+2
5:20p
10
78°
+4
+2
Neutral alignment
park + weather FIT · batter-neutral signal
Game-window avg wind 10 mph from ESE
FIT = park + game-window weather HR signal, batter-neutral. Per-batter spray overlays live on each batter's profile.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
LF
355ft
deep
CF
400ft
avg
RF
353ft
deep
vs LHH → RF
355ft
0 HRs allowed
vs RHH → LF
356ft
0 HRs allowed
Shortest: LF 351 ft
Longest LF/RF lines; wind-dependent
Fence marks are published; power-alley + pull-side depths come from the park's outfield geometry, calibrated to those marks. We don't track HR spray direction — pull side is inferred from batter handedness (LHH→RF, RHH→LF), not a measured read.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
No scored matchups by venue yet for Wilber Dotel.
Common questions about Wilber Dotel
Is Wilber Dotel likely to give up a home run tonight?
Wilber Dotel pitches tonight (PIT @ CHC at Wrigley Field). This season he has allowed 0 home runs across 0 scored game days. TheHomeRuns model scores every batter he faces; see the matchup table on this page for tonight's most dangerous bats. Model output, not a guarantee. Not gambling advice.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.