TheHomeRuns.org — CIN @ CWS

Neutral air · 0.99×

CIN @ CWS

Rate Field · 7:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.99× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Best of game Sal Stewart conv 25 · vs Castillo ⟷ Munetaka Murakami conv 33 · vs Lowder → edge: Munetaka Murakami

ATTACK Luis Castillo RHP · SEA

leak 78

1.50 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.38 · leakiest side of this game

1 Sal Stewart — C+ ●●●●○

2 Tyler Stephenson — C ●●●○○

3 Elly De La Cruz — C ●●●○○

FADE Rhett Lowder RHP · CIN

leak 67

1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.08 · stingy — thin edge

1 Munetaka Murakami — B ●●●●●

2 Andrew Benintendi — C ●●●●○

3 Miguel Vargas — C+ ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Munetaka Murakami: Match 32.1% · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Munetaka Murakami ✶ vs Lowder Edge — 0.302 · 94.1 · 13.6% 33.3% 32.1% F B O B 71

· CWS Andrew Benintendi vs Lowder Edge — 0.183 · 88.8 · 8.9% 33.3% 19.4% F B O C 51

· — Sal Stewart vs Castillo — 0.220 · 90.4 · 11.3% 25.0% 25.9% F B O C+ 60

· CWS Miguel Vargas vs Lowder — 0.232 · 90.6 · 11.2% 25.0% 21.2% F B O C+ 61

· CWS Colson Montgomery COOL vs Lowder Edge — 0.229 · 88.9 · 10.6% 16.7% 26.9% F B O C+ 60

· — Tyler Stephenson vs Castillo — 0.163 · 91.2 · 10.8% 22.2% 18.4% F B O C 51

· — Elly De La Cruz COOL vs Castillo Edge — 0.226 · 93.7 · 11.5% 16.7% 18.1% F B O C 59

· — Jj Bleday COOL vs Castillo Edge — 0.235 · 88.7 · 10.0% 0.0% 28.4% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· CWS Edgar Quero vs Lowder Edge — 0.040 · 90.5 · 4.3% 20.0% 7.3% F B O D 32

· — Eugenio Suarez vs Castillo — 0.199 · 88.6 · 10.4% 0.0% 24.5% F B O D 49

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs Lowder Edge — 0.128 · 87.6 · 7.4% 12.5% 7.9% F B O D 41

· CWS Chase Meidroth COOL vs Lowder — 0.130 · 87.8 · 6.5% 10.0% 9.8% F B O D 39

· CWS Braden Montgomery vs Lowder Edge — 0.145 · 89.2 · 5.8% 9.1% 9.0% F B O D 40

· — Matt Mclain COOL vs Castillo — 0.151 · 88.0 · 9.6% 0.0% 15.0% F B O D 44

· — Tj Friedl vs Castillo Edge — 0.082 · 87.5 · 4.9% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 32

· CWS Tristan Peters COOL vs Lowder Edge — 0.148 · 87.0 · 6.5% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 39

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 50.7% BRK 28.0% OFF 20.0% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Munetaka Murakami L Edge

22.8% 18.0% 18.2% 20.6% B 71 —

Neutral · 3

Miguel Vargas R

15.5% 12.1% 12.1% 14.2% C+ 61 —

Colson Montgomery L Edge

12.5% 11.9% 13.2% 12.5% C+ 60 —

Andrew Benintendi L Edge

12.8% 4.6% 5.7% 8.9% C 51 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

125

Sam Antonacci L Edge

8.0% 5.3% 0.0% 6.1% D 41 —

134

Braden Montgomery S Edge

4.3% 4.0% 2.5% 3.7% D 40 —

142

Chase Meidroth R

4.3% 6.1% 4.1% 4.8% D 39 —

144

Tristan Peters L Edge

5.7% 5.4% 0.0% 4.8% D 39 —

175

Edgar Quero S Edge

2.2% 0.0% 3.0% 2.1% D 32 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Lowder's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 7 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 60.7% ← leak BRK 26.1% OFF 13.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Sal Stewart R

17.0% 9.5% 10.0% 13.6% C+ 60 —

Elly De La Cruz S Edge

18.2% 10.3% 5.1% 13.7% C 59 —

Jj Bleday L Edge

13.2% 7.4% 5.7% 10.2% C 54 —

Tyler Stephenson R

16.1% 6.6% 5.9% 12.4% C 51 —

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Eugenio Suarez R

14.2% 5.3% 5.9% 11.5% D 49 —

Matt Mclain R

11.5% 9.5% 0.0% 9.7% D 44 —

173

Tj Friedl L Edge

2.8% 4.0% 0.0% 2.5% D 32 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (60.7% usage) carries Castillo's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Murakami Vargas Montgomery Benintendi Quero Stewart Cruz Bleday Stephenson

Legend

attack side — vs Castillo fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 5

Munetaka Murakami — · 71

Andrew Benintendi — · 51

Sal Stewart — · 60

Miguel Vargas — · 61

Tyler Stephenson — · 51

Stadium conditions

Rate Field

First pitch 7:40p · roof unknown

Park 0.99× Wind unknown — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Neutral · Combined 0.99× Unknown stadium — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Rhett Lowder · RHP 1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.08 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami ✶ 71 B — WARM 3 0.302 94.1 13.6% 38.2%vs RHP 403 18.8% 33.3% 32.1% 27

2 Miguel Vargas 61 C+ — · 13 0.232 90.6 11.2% 16.5%vs RHP 392 20.8% 25.0% 21.2% 33

3 Colson Montgomery 60 C+ — COOL 16 0.229 88.9 10.6% 26.5%vs RHP 399 22.9% 16.7% 26.9% 23

4 Andrew Benintendi 51 C — WARM 45 0.183 88.8 8.9% 17.4%vs RHP 389 14.5% 33.3% 19.4% 21

5 Sam Antonacci 41 D — COOL 125 0.128 87.6 7.4% 14.3%vs RHP 390 10.1% 12.5% 7.9% 32

6 Braden Montgomery 40 D — · 134 0.145 89.2 5.8% 16.7%vs RHP 383 6.5% 9.1% 9.0% 24

7 Chase Meidroth 39 D — COOL 142 0.130 87.8 6.5% 15.6%vs RHP 381 8.1% 10.0% 9.8% 29

8 Tristan Peters 39 D — COOL 144 0.148 87.0 6.5% 9.4%vs RHP 377 7.3% 0.0% 8.3% 20

9 Edgar Quero 32 D — WARM 175 0.040 90.5 4.3% 0.0%vs RHP 389 5.9% 20.0% 7.3% 17

vs Luis Castillo · RHP 1.50 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.38 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Sal Stewart 60 C+ — · 17 0.220 90.4 11.3% 24.4%vs RHP 395 16.5% 25.0% 25.9% 33

2 Elly De La Cruz 59 C — COOL 19 0.226 93.7 11.5% 21.8%vs RHP 396 17.3% 16.7% 18.1% 35

3 Jj Bleday 54 C — COOL 34 0.235 88.7 10.0% 24.6%vs RHP 388 20.0% 0.0% 28.4% 23

4 Tyler Stephenson 51 C — WARM 46 0.163 91.2 10.8% 20.4%vs RHP 392 8.7% 22.2% 18.4% 21

5 Eugenio Suarez 49 D — WARM 54 0.199 88.6 10.4% 28.6%vs RHP 395 0.0% 0.0% 24.5% 20

6 Matt Mclain 44 D — COOL 93 0.151 88.0 9.6% 11.1%vs RHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 15.0% 24

7 Tj Friedl 32 D — WARM 173 0.082 87.5 4.9% 7.3%vs RHP 374 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 4

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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