TheHomeRuns.org — PIT @ MIA

Suppressed air · 0.76×

PIT @ MIA

loanDepot Park · 6:40p · 12 ranked batters

Park 0.84× Wind 10 mph in 84°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-12 ↑

6:40p

-11 ↑

7:40p

-10 ↑

8:40p

-9 ↑

9:40p

-8 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 10:40p window peaks -8

Best of game Brandon Lowe conv 24 · vs Junk ⟷ Jakob Marsee conv 8 · vs Mlodzinski → edge: Brandon Lowe

ATTACK Janson Junk RHP · MIA

leak 89

1.34 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.12 · leakiest side of this game

1 Brandon Lowe +330 C ●●●●○

2 Jake Mangum — D ●●○○○

3 Bryan Reynolds +525 D ●○○○○

FADE Carmen Mlodzinski RHP · PIT

leak 29

0.74 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.49 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jakob Marsee +850 D ●○○○○

2 Javier Sanoja — D ●○○○○

3 Owen Caissie +400 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Brandon Lowe: 12.5% barrels overall vs the BRK leak · 14D pace 23.1% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PIT Brandon Lowe ✶ vs Junk Edge +330 0.232 · 91.1 · 9.7% 23.1% 25.1% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· PIT Jake Mangum HOT vs Junk Edge — 0.088 · 85.7 · 3.8% 16.7% 8.8% F B O D 27

· MIA Jakob Marsee COOL vs Mlodzinski Edge +850 0.106 · 87.1 · 5.1% 11.1% 5.7% F B O D 27

· MIA Javier Sanoja vs Mlodzinski — 0.137 · 86.7 · 4.1% 10.0% 5.3% F B O D 28

· MIA Owen Caissie COOL vs Mlodzinski Edge +400 0.200 · 91.1 · 10.5% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 43

· MIA Heriberto Hernández COOL vs Mlodzinski +475 0.221 · 91.7 · 9.5% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 40

· PIT Bryan Reynolds COOL vs Junk Edge +525 0.174 · 90.6 · 9.2% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 41

· PIT Spencer Horwitz COOL vs Junk Edge +575 0.164 · 86.8 · 7.8% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 37

· MIA Otto Lopez COOL vs Mlodzinski +850 0.151 · 89.1 · 6.8% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 32

· PIT Nick Gonzales COOL vs Junk — 0.093 · 86.3 · 4.6% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 26

· PIT Jared Triolo COOL vs Junk — 0.063 · 87.5 · 4.1% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 23

· MIA Xavier Edwards COOL vs Mlodzinski Edge — 0.106 · 87.0 · 5.3% 0.0% 5.2% F B O D 25

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

BRK 41.3% ← leak FB 40.8% OFF 18.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Brandon Lowe L Edge

8.2% 16.6% 9.1% 12.5% C 53 +330

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

122

Bryan Reynolds S Edge

14.5% 11.2% 7.2% 11.1% D 41 +525

150

Spencer Horwitz L Edge

7.0% 7.8% 10.7% 8.0% D 37 +575

192

Jake Mangum S Edge

0.0% 3.9% 0.0% 1.9% D 27 —

199

Nick Gonzales R

4.9% 2.3% 0.0% 2.8% D 26 —

203

Jared Triolo R

2.8% 2.5% 0.0% 2.2% D 23 —

Read the columns: the breaking family (41.3% usage) carries Junk's damage — BRK is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 48.2% ← leak OFF 26.0% BRK 25.8% Overall Score

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

107

Owen Caissie L Edge

16.7% 18.8% 7.7% 14.7% D 43 +400

128

Heriberto Hernández R

11.5% 16.7% 11.5% 11.9% D 40 +475

174

Otto Lopez R

9.0% 1.6% 4.2% 6.2% D 32 +850

190

Javier Sanoja R

2.6% 0.0% 2.2% 2.2% D 28 —

195

Jakob Marsee L Edge

3.0% 8.1% 2.0% 3.5% D 27 +850

202

Xavier Edwards S Edge

4.5% 2.9% 2.4% 3.8% D 25 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (48.2% usage) carries Mlodzinski's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Lowe

Legend

attack side — vs Junk fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Brandon Lowe +330 · 53

Stadium conditions

loanDepot Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 0.84× Wind 10 mph in 84°F retractable

-12

↑

9 mph · in

87°F

6:40p

-11

↑

8 mph · in

85°F

7:40p

-10

↑

7 mph · in

84°F

8:40p

-9

↑

6 mph · in

83°F

9:40p

-8

↑

5 mph · in

82°F

10:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.76× 84°F, wind 10 mph ESE (in) — modifier: -1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Janson Junk · RHP 1.34 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.12 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Brandon Lowe ✶ 53 C +330 · 37 0.232 91.1 9.7% 26.2%vs RHP 392 16.7% 23.1% 25.1% 26

2 Bryan Reynolds 41 D +525 COOL 122 0.174 90.6 9.2% 18.0%vs RHP 409 12.0% 0.0% 10.2% 34

3 Spencer Horwitz 37 D +575 COOL 150 0.164 86.8 7.8% 16.7%vs RHP 395 10.8% 0.0% 9.4% 20

4 Jake Mangum 27 D — HOT 192 0.088 85.7 3.8% 10.7%vs RHP 393 5.3% 16.7% 8.8% 32

5 Nick Gonzales 26 D — COOL 199 0.093 86.3 4.6% 10.9%vs RHP 397 7.0% 0.0% 6.6% 43

6 Jared Triolo 23 D — COOL 203 0.063 87.5 4.1% 5.3%vs RHP 419 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 16

vs Carmen Mlodzinski · RHP 0.74 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.49 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Owen Caissie 43 D +400 COOL 107 0.200 91.1 10.5% 26.7%vs RHP 398 14.3% 0.0% 11.1% 15

2 Heriberto Hernández 40 D +475 COOL 128 0.221 91.7 9.5% 16.7%vs RHP 411 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 25

3 Otto Lopez 32 D +850 COOL 174 0.151 89.1 6.8% 11.3%vs RHP 402 7.0% 0.0% 6.8% 48

4 Javier Sanoja 28 D — WARM 190 0.137 86.7 4.1% 2.7%vs RHP 383 5.1% 10.0% 5.3% 34

5 Jakob Marsee 27 D +850 COOL 195 0.106 87.1 5.1% 8.2%vs RHP 380 6.4% 11.1% 5.7% 26

6 Xavier Edwards 25 D — COOL 202 0.106 87.0 5.3% 2.9%vs RHP 396 4.3% 0.0% 5.2% 38

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

9 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.