TheHomeRuns.org — CHC @ WSH

Nationals Park is live · 1.30×

CHC @ WSH

Nationals Park · 6:45p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.18× Wind 5 mph out 82°F Roof open

Hourly window

+10 ↑

6:45p

+8 ↑

7:45p

+9 ↑

8:45p

+10 ↑

9:45p

+12 ↑

10:45p

conditions build late — the 10:45p window peaks +12

Best of game Daylen Lile conv 23 · vs Peterson ⟷ Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 28 · vs Proxy → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK David Peterson LHP · NYM

leak 95

0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.13 · leakiest side of this game

1 Daylen Lile — C ●●●●○

2 Cj Abrams — C+ ●●○○○

3 Dylan Crews — C ●○○○○

FADE WSH Bullpen Proxy · WSH

leak 69

1.42 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong — B ●●●●○

2 Ian Happ — C+ ●●●○○

3 Seiya Suzuki — C+ ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: Match 33.7% · 14D pace 23.1%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ vs Proxy — 0.258 · 90.3 · 12.3% 23.1% 33.7% F B O B 73

· — Daylen Lile HOT vs Peterson — 0.173 · 88.4 · 7.5% 25.0% 20.7% F B O C 53

· CHC Ian Happ COOL vs Proxy — 0.203 · 89.3 · 11.6% 15.4% 23.0% F B O C+ 64

· CHC Seiya Suzuki vs Proxy — 0.201 · 88.8 · 9.9% 18.2% 19.3% F B O C+ 61

· — Cj Abrams COOL vs Peterson — 0.256 · 89.8 · 8.5% 0.0% 26.1% F B O C+ 63

· CHC Dansby Swanson COOL vs Proxy — 0.182 · 89.3 · 7.1% 7.7% 14.2% F B O C 53

· — Dylan Crews vs Peterson Edge — 0.147 · 90.7 · 8.3% 8.3% 10.4% F B O C 51

· CHC Michael Busch COOL vs Proxy — 0.146 · 88.2 · 9.3% 7.7% 10.8% F B O C 53

· CHC Michael Conforto COOL vs Proxy — 0.219 · 91.4 · 11.7% 0.0% 17.8% F B O C 59

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs Proxy — 0.103 · 85.9 · 1.2% 16.7% 8.8% F B O D 37

· CHC Alex Bregman HOT vs Proxy — 0.132 · 88.2 · 4.2% 15.4% 9.3% F B O D 45

· CHC Carson Kelly COOL vs Proxy — 0.117 · 87.3 · 5.8% 12.5% 9.5% F B O D 45

· — Jacob Young COOL vs Peterson Edge — 0.150 · 88.3 · 6.5% 9.1% 9.1% F B O D 46

· — Keibert Ruiz COOL vs Peterson Edge — 0.166 · 88.5 · 5.5% 0.0% 12.4% F B O D 46

· — Nasim Nunez COOL vs Peterson Edge — 0.039 · 84.6 · 1.7% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for WSH Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

FB 54.2% ← leak BRK 33.4% OFF 12.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Cj Abrams L

10.8% 9.5% 12.8% 10.6% C+ 63 —

Daylen Lile L

7.6% 12.6% 4.7% 8.3% C 53 —

Dylan Crews R Edge

6.9% 22.2% 10.5% 10.2% C 51 —

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Keibert Ruiz S Edge

5.9% 3.2% 2.4% 4.5% D 46 —

Jacob Young R Edge

7.8% 3.9% 2.9% 6.1% D 46 —

196

Nasim Nunez S Edge

0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% D 27 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (54.2% usage) carries Peterson's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Crow-Armstrong Happ Suzuki Abrams Lile

Legend

attack side — vs Peterson fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Pete Crow-Armstrong — · 73

Daylen Lile — · 53

Stadium conditions

Nationals Park

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 1.18× Wind 5 mph out 82°F open

+10

↑

4 mph · out

82°F

6:45p

↑

3 mph · slight_out

80°F

7:45p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

79°F

8:45p

+10

↑

5 mph · out

79°F

9:45p

+12

↑

6 mph · out

78°F

10:45p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.30× 82°F, wind 5 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs WSH Bullpen Proxy 1.42 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 73 B — WARM 5 0.258 90.3 12.3% 18.6% 395 20.0% 23.1% 33.7% 36

2 Ian Happ 64 C+ — COOL 15 0.203 89.3 11.6% 18.3% 402 17.6% 15.4% 23.0% 29

3 Seiya Suzuki 61 C+ — · 23 0.201 88.8 9.9% 17.9% 405 16.5% 18.2% 19.3% 34

4 Michael Conforto 59 C — COOL 27 0.219 91.4 11.7% 18.4% 399 7.0% 0.0% 17.8% 14

5 Dansby Swanson 53 C — COOL 52 0.182 89.3 7.1% 15.2% 403 11.9% 7.7% 14.2% 33

6 Michael Busch 53 C — COOL 53 0.146 88.2 9.3% 11.2% 401 12.4% 7.7% 10.8% 47

7 Carson Kelly 45 D — COOL 118 0.117 87.3 5.8% 10.1% 413 7.1% 12.5% 9.5% 26

8 Alex Bregman 45 D — HOT 119 0.132 88.2 4.2% 8.4% 387 10.3% 15.4% 9.3% 45

9 Nico Hoerner 37 D — WARM 167 0.103 85.9 1.2% 5.6% 381 5.9% 16.7% 8.8% 41

vs David Peterson · LHP 0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.13 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Cj Abrams 63 C+ — COOL 9 0.256 89.8 8.5% 20.8%vs LHP 396 33.3% 0.0% 26.1% 34

2 Daylen Lile 53 C — HOT 41 0.173 88.4 7.5% 5.0%vs LHP 400 10.5% 25.0% 20.7% 35

3 Dylan Crews 51 C — · 48 0.147 90.7 8.3% 18.2%vs LHP 406 17.9% 8.3% 10.4% 32

4 Keibert Ruiz 46 D — COOL 86 0.166 88.5 5.5% 23.1%vs LHP 377 9.1% 0.0% 12.4% 23

5 Jacob Young 46 D — COOL 87 0.150 88.3 6.5% 8.0%vs LHP 396 8.4% 9.1% 9.1% 27

6 Nasim Nunez 27 D — COOL 196 0.039 84.6 1.7% 6.2%vs LHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 32

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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