TheHomeRuns.org — TEX @ LAA

Angel Stadium is live · 1.20×

TEX @ LAA

Angel Stadium · 10:10p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.86× Wind 10 mph out 76°F Roof open

Hourly window

+6 ↑

7:10p

+6 ↑

8:10p

+5 ↑

9:10p

+3 ↑

10:10p

+2 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at +6

Best of game Mike Trout conv 18 · vs Quantrill ⟷ Joc Pederson conv 27 · vs Klassen → edge: Joc Pederson

ATTACK Cal Quantrill RHP · TEX

leak 34

1.23 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.12 · leakiest side of this game

1 Mike Trout — C ●●●○○

2 Zach Neto — D ●○○○○

3 Nolan Schanuel — D ●○○○○

FADE George Klassen RHP · LAA

leak 3

1.03 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.06 · stingy — thin edge

1 Joc Pederson — C ●●●●○

2 Brandon Nimmo — D ●●●○○

3 Wyatt Langford — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Joc Pederson: 11.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TEX Joc Pederson ✶ vs Klassen Edge — 0.250 · 91.9 · 10.7% 33.3% 19.7% F B O C 58

· LAA Mike Trout COOL vs Quantrill — 0.211 · 90.1 · 11.7% 16.7% 19.8% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· TEX Brandon Nimmo COOL vs Klassen Edge — 0.172 · 92.0 · 10.7% 23.1% 10.9% F B O D 48

· TEX Wyatt Langford COOL vs Klassen — 0.216 · 89.4 · 9.0% 7.7% 11.8% F B O D 48

· LAA Zach Neto COOL vs Quantrill — 0.190 · 89.4 · 9.8% 8.3% 10.0% F B O D 46

· TEX Corey Seager vs Klassen Edge — 0.182 · 91.2 · 12.1% 10.0% 7.9% F B O D 49

· TEX Ezequiel Duran COOL vs Klassen — 0.176 · 88.6 · 8.0% 7.7% 9.8% F B O D 43

· LAA Nolan Schanuel vs Quantrill Edge — 0.115 · 87.6 · 4.6% 8.3% 6.6% F B O D 30

· TEX Jake Burger vs Klassen — 0.178 · 90.0 · 10.5% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 46

· LAA Josh Lowe vs Quantrill Edge — 0.139 · 89.0 · 8.5% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 37

· LAA Vaughn Grissom COOL vs Quantrill — 0.136 · 88.4 · 7.3% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 35

· LAA Oswald Peraza vs Quantrill — 0.126 · 87.6 · 7.6% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 34

· TEX Evan Carter COOL vs Klassen Edge — 0.132 · 87.5 · 7.6% 0.0% 5.2% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 48.8% ← leak BRK 26.1% OFF 25.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Joc Pederson L Edge

14.0% 12.5% 3.8% 11.3% C 58 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Corey Seager L Edge

13.8% 13.2% 15.6% 14.0% D 49 —

Wyatt Langford R

5.0% 12.1% 15.8% 8.1% D 48 —

Brandon Nimmo L Edge

8.7% 18.2% 8.7% 11.2% D 48 —

Jake Burger R

10.0% 12.5% 9.4% 10.8% D 46 —

108

Ezequiel Duran R

7.8% 6.1% 0.0% 6.2% D 43 —

161

Evan Carter L Edge

7.8% 4.8% 0.0% 5.8% D 36 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (48.8% usage) carries Klassen's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 73.8% ← leak OFF 21.5% BRK 4.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Mike Trout R

15.9% 12.5% 23.8% 16.9% C 52 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Zach Neto R

14.4% 10.5% 8.1% 12.0% D 46 —

152

Josh Lowe L Edge

13.0% 6.7% 2.6% 9.0% D 37 —

165

Vaughn Grissom R

7.9% 0.0% 6.5% 6.4% D 35 —

166

Oswald Peraza R

6.3% 11.5% 6.9% 7.2% D 34 —

182

Nolan Schanuel L Edge

2.8% 0.0% 3.8% 2.6% D 30 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (73.8% usage) carries Quantrill's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Pederson Nimmo Trout

Legend

attack side — vs Quantrill fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Joc Pederson — · 58

Stadium conditions

Angel Stadium

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 0.86× Wind 10 mph out 76°F open

↑

10 mph · out

76°F

7:10p · peak

↑

10 mph · out

74°F

8:10p

↑

9 mph · out

73°F

9:10p

↑

7 mph · out

72°F

10:10p

↑

6 mph · out

71°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.20× 76°F, wind 10 mph SW (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs George Klassen · RHP 1.03 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.06 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson ✶ 58 C — WARM 21 0.250 91.9 10.7% 30.9%vs RHP 395 22.9% 33.3% 19.7% 19

2 Corey Seager 49 D — · 62 0.182 91.2 12.1% 21.9%vs RHP 396 16.4% 10.0% 7.9% 30

3 Wyatt Langford 48 D — COOL 67 0.216 89.4 9.0% 20.9%vs RHP 397 16.2% 7.7% 11.8% 29

4 Brandon Nimmo 48 D — COOL 68 0.172 92.0 10.7% 12.9%vs RHP 403 11.0% 23.1% 10.9% 37

5 Jake Burger 46 D — · 82 0.178 90.0 10.5% 23.1%vs RHP 398 15.0% 0.0% 10.0% 30

6 Ezequiel Duran 43 D — COOL 108 0.176 88.6 8.0% 22.4%vs RHP 393 13.0% 7.7% 9.8% 34

7 Evan Carter 36 D — COOL 161 0.132 87.5 7.6% 14.0%vs RHP 374 8.2% 0.0% 5.2% 26

vs Cal Quantrill · RHP 1.23 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.12 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mike Trout 52 C — COOL 43 0.211 90.1 11.7% 24.2%vs RHP 408 16.3% 16.7% 19.8% 24

2 Zach Neto 46 D — COOL 83 0.190 89.4 9.8% 19.0%vs RHP 402 15.9% 8.3% 10.0% 33

3 Josh Lowe 37 D — WARM 152 0.139 89.0 8.5% 15.7%vs RHP 396 9.1% 0.0% 7.7% 11

4 Vaughn Grissom 35 D — COOL 165 0.136 88.4 7.3% 18.4%vs RHP 390 9.4% 0.0% 7.1% 29

5 Oswald Peraza 34 D — WARM 166 0.126 87.6 7.6% 8.3%vs RHP 386 6.0% 0.0% 5.9% 12

6 Nolan Schanuel 30 D — · 182 0.115 87.6 4.6% 9.4%vs RHP 375 6.9% 8.3% 6.6% 38

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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