TheHomeRuns.org — COL @ AZ

Chase Field is live · 1.19×

COL @ AZ

Chase Field · 3:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.91× Wind 4 mph slight_out 98°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+2 ↑

12:40p

+3 ↑

1:40p

+4 ↑

2:40p

+5 ↑

3:40p

+5 ↑

4:40p

conditions build late — the 3:40p window peaks +5

Best of game Hunter Goodman conv 27 · vs Kelly ⟷ Nolan Arenado conv 26 · vs Feltner → edge: Hunter Goodman

ATTACK Merrill Kelly RHP · AZ

leak 92

1.78 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.96 · leakiest side of this game

1 Hunter Goodman — B ●●●●○

2 Mickey Moniak — C+ ●●●○○

3 Willi Castro — D ●●●○○

FADE Ryan Feltner RHP · COL

leak 87

2.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.04 · stingy — thin edge

1 Nolan Arenado — C ●●●●○

2 Ketel Marte — C ●●○○○

3 Corbin Carroll — C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Hunter Goodman: 16.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 20.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· COL Hunter Goodman ✶ vs Kelly — 0.290 · 90.5 · 14.1% 20.0% 33.6% F B O B 70

· AZ Nolan Arenado vs Feltner — 0.191 · 85.1 · 8.7% 30.8% 22.0% F B O C 52

· COL Mickey Moniak vs Kelly Edge — 0.286 · 89.3 · 11.7% 18.2% 21.9% F B O C+ 62

· AZ Ketel Marte COOL vs Feltner Edge — 0.194 · 90.1 · 10.4% 15.4% 14.0% F B O C 53

· AZ Corbin Carroll vs Feltner Edge — 0.225 · 91.6 · 11.3% 15.4% 13.9% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· COL Willi Castro vs Kelly Edge — 0.159 · 87.7 · 10.3% 20.0% 15.4% F B O D 49

· COL Kyle Karros vs Kelly — 0.150 · 89.7 · 9.5% 11.1% 10.1% F B O D 46

· AZ Gabriel Moreno COOL vs Feltner — 0.149 · 89.2 · 8.7% 9.1% 9.3% F B O D 44

· COL Ezequiel Tovar COOL vs Kelly — 0.124 · 87.4 · 8.7% 10.0% 8.2% F B O D 41

· COL Jake Mccarthy COOL vs Kelly Edge — 0.210 · 85.2 · 8.0% 0.0% 16.5% F B O D 48

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo vs Feltner Edge — 0.130 · 87.2 · 6.0% 8.3% 7.4% F B O D 38

· AZ Tim Tawa vs Feltner — 0.153 · 90.0 · 9.0% 0.0% 11.9% F B O D 43

· COL Tj Rumfield COOL vs Kelly Edge — 0.161 · 83.9 · 7.5% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 41

· AZ Ryan Waldschmidt COOL vs Feltner — 0.119 · 88.3 · 9.1% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 40

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas vs Feltner Edge — 0.137 · 87.7 · 6.0% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 37

· COL Troy Johnston COOL vs Kelly Edge — 0.105 · 89.6 · 4.8% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 50.8% ← leak OFF 27.4% BRK 21.8% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Hunter Goodman R

19.1% 9.7% 14.6% 16.4% B 70 —

Neutral · 1

Mickey Moniak L Edge

9.8% 2.2% 22.2% 10.8% C+ 62 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Willi Castro S Edge

11.6% 5.6% 6.1% 8.8% D 49 —

Jake Mccarthy L Edge

6.5% 6.2% 1.4% 5.2% D 48 —

Kyle Karros R

7.7% 11.5% 4.8% 7.4% D 46 —

121

Tj Rumfield L Edge

5.5% 5.6% 1.9% 4.4% D 41 —

124

Ezequiel Tovar R

5.5% 8.0% 6.9% 6.2% D 41 —

168

Troy Johnston L Edge

2.5% 0.0% 2.5% 1.9% D 33 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (50.8% usage) carries Kelly's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

BRK 42.4% ← leak FB 41.1% OFF 16.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Corbin Carroll L Edge

14.6% 10.5% 10.4% 11.8% C 57 —

Ketel Marte S Edge

7.1% 13.9% 3.7% 10.0% C 53 —

Nolan Arenado R

2.1% 10.1% 6.1% 7.1% C 52 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Gabriel Moreno R

7.3% 6.6% 8.1% 7.0% D 44 —

105

Tim Tawa R

8.6% 7.9% 4.8% 7.6% D 43 —

137

Ryan Waldschmidt R

7.7% 9.1% 0.0% 7.7% D 40 —

148

Geraldo Perdomo S Edge

1.8% 4.2% 2.2% 3.3% D 38 —

153

Ildemaro Vargas S Edge

3.1% 4.1% 1.5% 3.3% D 37 —

Read the columns: the breaking family (42.4% usage) carries Feltner's damage — BRK is the leak. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Goodman Moniak Castro Carroll Marte Arenado

Legend

attack side — vs Kelly fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Hunter Goodman — · 70

Nolan Arenado — · 52

Stadium conditions

Chase Field

First pitch 12:40p · roof retractable

Park 0.91× Wind 4 mph slight_out 98°F retractable

↑

6 mph · slight_out

93°F

12:40p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

96°F

1:40p

↑

9 mph · slight_out

98°F

2:40p

↑

11 mph · slight_out

99°F

3:40p · peak

↑

14 mph · slight_out

100°F

4:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.19× 98°F, wind 4 mph SW (slight_out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Merrill Kelly · RHP 1.78 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.96 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman ✶ 70 B — · 4 0.290 90.5 14.1% 40.9%vs RHP 410 24.0% 20.0% 33.6% 27

2 Mickey Moniak 62 C+ — · 11 0.286 89.3 11.7% 25.0%vs RHP 417 17.7% 18.2% 21.9% 32

3 Willi Castro 49 D — WARM 57 0.159 87.7 10.3% 17.2%vs RHP 411 11.1% 20.0% 15.4% 27

4 Jake Mccarthy 48 D — COOL 65 0.210 85.2 8.0% 16.1%vs RHP 416 12.5% 0.0% 16.5% 49

5 Kyle Karros 46 D — · 85 0.150 89.7 9.5% 21.1%vs RHP 417 10.8% 11.1% 10.1% 29

6 Tj Rumfield 41 D — COOL 121 0.161 83.9 7.5% 15.6%vs RHP 410 6.2% 0.0% 10.2% 38

7 Ezequiel Tovar 41 D — COOL 124 0.124 87.4 8.7% 15.2%vs RHP 408 7.7% 10.0% 8.2% 26

8 Troy Johnston 33 D — COOL 168 0.105 89.6 4.8% 7.1%vs RHP 415 1.2% 0.0% 7.3% 15

vs Ryan Feltner · RHP 2.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.04 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 57 C — · 25 0.225 91.6 11.3% 16.4%vs RHP 401 13.9% 15.4% 13.9% 40

2 Ketel Marte 53 C — COOL 40 0.194 90.1 10.4% 13.8%vs RHP 411 15.7% 15.4% 14.0% 33

3 Nolan Arenado 52 C — · 42 0.191 85.1 8.7% 20.7%vs RHP 390 15.3% 30.8% 22.0% 37

4 Gabriel Moreno 44 D — COOL 99 0.149 89.2 8.7% 13.5%vs RHP 400 8.1% 9.1% 9.3% 37

5 Tim Tawa 43 D — · 105 0.153 90.0 9.0% 24.0%vs RHP 401 4.3% 0.0% 11.9% 37

6 Ryan Waldschmidt 40 D — COOL 137 0.119 88.3 9.1% 8.3%vs RHP 419 3.2% 0.0% 7.5% 28

7 Geraldo Perdomo 38 D — WARM 148 0.130 87.2 6.0% 10.7%vs RHP 383 7.6% 8.3% 7.4% 39

8 Ildemaro Vargas 37 D — WARM 153 0.137 87.7 6.0% 8.6%vs RHP 399 4.5% 0.0% 7.5% 22

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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