TheHomeRuns.org — SEA @ NYY

Yankee Stadium is live · 1.16×

SEA @ NYY

Yankee Stadium · 7:05p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 6 mph slight_out 84°F Roof open

Hourly window

+8 ↑

7:05p

+7 ↑

8:05p

+6 ↑

9:05p

+4 ↑

10:05p

+3 ↑

11:05p

best window is early — 7:05p at +8

Best of game Julio Rodríguez conv 16 · vs Warren ⟷ Trent Grisham conv 15 · vs Miller → edge: Ben Rice

ATTACK Will Warren RHP · NYY

leak 87

1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.36 · leakiest side of this game

1 Julio Rodríguez — D ●●○○○

2 Randy Arozarena — D ●●○○○

3 Josh Naylor — D ●●○○○

FADE Bryce Miller RHP · SEA

leak 54

1.49 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.38 · stingy — thin edge

1 Trent Grisham — D ●●○○○

2 Ben Rice — C+ ●●○○○

3 Jose Caballero — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ben Rice: 15.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 8.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYY Ben Rice ✶ vs Miller Edge — 0.287 · 92.0 · 10.3% 8.3% 18.6% F B O C+ 64

· SEA Dominic Canzone COOL vs Warren Edge — 0.238 · 91.7 · 10.0% 0.0% 18.8% F B O C 56

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt COOL vs Miller — 0.203 · 86.6 · 8.4% 0.0% 15.2% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· SEA Julio Rodríguez vs Warren — 0.165 · 89.9 · 8.1% 16.7% 14.5% F B O D 49

· NYY Trent Grisham vs Miller Edge — 0.178 · 90.6 · 8.3% 16.7% 13.3% F B O D 49

· SEA Randy Arozarena vs Warren — 0.165 · 91.0 · 7.7% 16.7% 12.9% F B O D 48

· SEA Josh Naylor vs Warren Edge — 0.108 · 87.8 · 6.0% 10.0% 11.8% F B O D 38

· SEA Colt Emerson vs Warren Edge — 0.149 · 86.8 · 6.1% 8.3% 11.9% F B O D 42

· NYY Jose Caballero vs Miller — 0.149 · 83.9 · 5.3% 0.0% 19.7% F B O D 38

· SEA Cole Young vs Warren Edge — 0.143 · 88.9 · 6.1% 8.3% 10.3% F B O D 42

· SEA Cal Raleigh HOT vs Warren Edge — 0.141 · 88.9 · 9.9% 9.1% 9.4% F B O D 47

· NYY Austin Wells vs Miller Edge — 0.124 · 89.4 · 7.0% 9.1% 8.4% F B O D 41

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon vs Miller Edge — 0.160 · 91.3 · 8.4% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 46

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 63.7% ← leak BRK 24.6% OFF 11.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Dominic Canzone L Edge

16.4% 13.3% 7.8% 13.5% C 56 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Julio Rodríguez R

8.9% 8.2% 9.5% 8.8% D 49 —

Randy Arozarena R

8.4% 7.6% 7.4% 8.0% D 48 —

Cal Raleigh S Edge

11.0% 16.7% 14.6% 13.1% D 47 —

114

Colt Emerson L Edge

5.5% 4.9% 3.8% 5.0% D 42 —

115

Cole Young L Edge

4.4% 9.1% 1.9% 5.0% D 42 —

146

Josh Naylor L Edge

4.4% 8.5% 1.6% 4.8% D 38 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (63.7% usage) carries Warren's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.7% ← leak OFF 24.3% BRK 22.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Ben Rice L Edge

18.5% 13.2% 12.2% 15.7% C+ 64 —

Paul Goldschmidt R

13.9% 9.1% 4.5% 10.4% C 50 —

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Trent Grisham L Edge

11.8% 5.3% 8.2% 10.2% D 49 —

Ryan Mcmahon L Edge

13.0% 12.0% 4.4% 10.6% D 46 —

123

Austin Wells L Edge

9.7% 0.0% 5.9% 7.4% D 41 —

145

Jose Caballero R

— — — — D 38 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.7% usage) carries Miller's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Rodríguez Arozarena Rice Grisham

Legend

attack side — vs Warren fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Yankee Stadium

First pitch 7:05p · roof open

Park 1.05× Wind 6 mph slight_out 84°F open

↑

6 mph · out

81°F

7:05p · peak

↑

5 mph · out

79°F

8:05p

↑

5 mph · out

78°F

9:05p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

77°F

10:05p

↑

3 mph · slight_out

75°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.16× 84°F, wind 6 mph WNW (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Will Warren · RHP 1.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.36 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dominic Canzone 56 C — COOL 26 0.238 91.7 10.0% 25.9%vs RHP 403 15.8% 0.0% 18.8% 33

2 Julio Rodríguez 49 D — · 59 0.165 89.9 8.1% 18.9%vs RHP 406 16.7% 16.7% 14.5% 32

3 Randy Arozarena 48 D — · 69 0.165 91.0 7.7% 23.5%vs RHP 391 13.0% 16.7% 12.9% 38

4 Cal Raleigh 47 D — HOT 76 0.141 88.9 9.9% 12.1%vs RHP 395 12.8% 9.1% 9.4% 24

5 Colt Emerson 42 D — · 114 0.149 86.8 6.1% 26.3%vs RHP 376 9.6% 8.3% 11.9% 24

6 Cole Young 42 D — WARM 115 0.143 88.9 6.1% 17.4%vs RHP 387 11.3% 8.3% 10.3% 41

7 Josh Naylor 38 D — · 146 0.108 87.8 6.0% 11.9%vs RHP 392 7.2% 10.0% 11.8% 30

vs Bryce Miller · RHP 1.49 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.38 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 64 C+ — · 7 0.287 92.0 10.3% 31.5%vs RHP 391 25.0% 8.3% 18.6% 25

2 Paul Goldschmidt 50 C — COOL 50 0.203 86.6 8.4% 18.4%vs RHP 390 15.9% 0.0% 15.2% 19

3 Trent Grisham 49 D — · 61 0.178 90.6 8.3% 17.0%vs RHP 388 11.8% 16.7% 13.3% 35

4 Ryan Mcmahon 46 D — · 77 0.160 91.3 8.4% 21.3%vs RHP 387 16.7% 0.0% 10.9% 24

5 Austin Wells 41 D — WARM 123 0.124 89.4 7.0% 15.4%vs RHP 387 9.8% 9.1% 8.4% 20

6 Jose Caballero 38 D — WARM 145 0.149 83.9 5.3% 22.2%vs RHP 383 0.0% 0.0% 19.7% 14

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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