TheHomeRuns.org — CLE @ DET

Playable air · 1.06×

CLE @ DET

Comerica Park · 6:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.96× Wind 5 mph slight_out 81°F Roof open

Hourly window

+1 ↑

6:40p

+1 ↑

7:40p

+3 ↑

8:40p

+4 ↑

9:40p

+2 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 9:40p window peaks +4

Best of game Dillon Dingler conv 32 · vs Griffin ⟷ Rhys Hoskins conv 32 · vs Valdez → edge: Dillon Dingler

ATTACK Foster Griffin LHP · WSH

leak 87

1.42 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.62 · leakiest side of this game

1 Dillon Dingler +440 C+ ●●●●●

2 Kevin Mcgonigle +550 D ●●●●○

3 Gleyber Torres +600 D ●●○○○

FADE Framber Valdez LHP · DET

leak 65

0.85 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.05 · stingy — thin edge

1 Rhys Hoskins +440 C ●●●●●

2 Steven Kwan — D ●○○○○

3 Angel Martinez +575 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Dillon Dingler: 11.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 36.4% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Dillon Dingler ✶ COOL vs Griffin Edge +440 0.253 · 89.0 · 10.1% 36.4% 28.0% F B O C+ 61

· CLE Rhys Hoskins HOT vs Valdez Edge +440 0.204 · 89.2 · 9.0% 40.0% 23.1% F B O C 52

· — Spencer Torkelson vs Griffin Edge +440 0.195 · 89.5 · 10.8% 9.1% 11.5% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· — Kevin Mcgonigle COOL vs Griffin +550 0.141 · 87.8 · 7.8% 40.0% 12.1% F B O D 44

· — Gleyber Torres COOL vs Griffin Edge +600 0.128 · 86.0 · 8.1% 18.2% 8.5% F B O D 40

· — Riley Greene COOL vs Griffin — 0.177 · 90.5 · 11.4% 10.0% 10.3% F B O D 49

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Valdez — 0.063 · 83.6 · 1.4% 10.0% 5.8% F B O D 22

· CLE Angel Martinez vs Valdez Edge +575 0.194 · 87.9 · 7.3% 0.0% 12.2% F B O D 40

· CLE Chase Delauter vs Valdez +750 0.156 · 91.2 · 6.2% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 37

· CLE Jose Ramirez COOL vs Valdez Edge +525 0.150 · 89.3 · 5.8% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 35

· — Colt Keith COOL vs Griffin — 0.148 · 88.6 · 8.0% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 40

· CLE Travis Bazzana vs Valdez +1000 0.145 · 88.4 · 5.3% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 37

· CLE Brayan Rocchio vs Valdez Edge — 0.118 · 86.4 · 4.7% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 32

· — Zach Mckinstry vs Griffin — 0.109 · 85.6 · 4.7% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 31

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 47.2% ← leak BRK 33.8% OFF 19.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Rhys Hoskins R Edge

11.4% 17.5% 13.3% 13.1% C 52 +440

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

127

Angel Martinez S Edge

8.9% 14.9% 3.3% 8.6% D 40 +575

149

Chase Delauter L

8.2% 5.8% 1.6% 6.3% D 37 +750

156

Travis Bazzana L

4.5% 3.6% 3.6% 4.2% D 37 +1000

162

Jose Ramirez S Edge

— — — — D 35 +525

176

Brayan Rocchio S Edge

4.2% 4.5% 1.1% 3.5% D 32 —

206

Steven Kwan L

0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% D 22 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (47.2% usage) carries Valdez's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 58.8% ← leak BRK 24.6% OFF 16.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Dillon Dingler R Edge

13.1% 9.2% 7.0% 11.4% C+ 61 +440

Spencer Torkelson R Edge

13.6% 11.8% 13.6% 13.2% C 51 +440

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Riley Greene L

15.5% 16.9% 9.1% 14.6% D 49 —

101

Kevin Mcgonigle L

8.1% 6.8% 1.7% 6.8% D 44 +550

138

Gleyber Torres R Edge

9.5% 4.4% 0.0% 7.4% D 40 +600

139

Colt Keith L

6.8% 14.0% 3.3% 7.2% D 40 —

179

Zach Mckinstry L

3.5% 1.7% 0.0% 2.5% D 31 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.8% usage) carries Griffin's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Hoskins Dingler Mcgonigle Torres

Legend

attack side — vs Griffin fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Dillon Dingler +440 · 61

Rhys Hoskins +440 · 52

Stadium conditions

Comerica Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.96× Wind 5 mph slight_out 81°F open

↑

5 mph · slight_out

79°F

6:40p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

77°F

7:40p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

75°F

8:40p

↑

5 mph · out

73°F

9:40p · peak

↑

3 mph · out

71°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.06× 81°F, wind 5 mph W (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Framber Valdez · LHP 0.85 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.05 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rhys Hoskins 52 C +440 HOT 44 0.204 89.2 9.0% 26.1%vs LHP 389 14.8% 40.0% 23.1% 12

2 Angel Martinez 40 D +575 WARM 127 0.194 87.9 7.3% 20.0%vs LHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 12.2% 24

3 Chase Delauter 37 D +750 WARM 149 0.156 91.2 6.2% 13.3%vs LHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 35

4 Travis Bazzana 37 D +1000 · 156 0.145 88.4 5.3% 9.5%vs LHP 396 10.7% 0.0% 7.6% 26

5 Jose Ramirez 35 D +525 COOL 162 0.150 89.3 5.8% 19.2%vs LHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 31

6 Brayan Rocchio 32 D — WARM 176 0.118 86.4 4.7% 10.0%vs LHP 386 7.1% 0.0% 7.2% 33

7 Steven Kwan 22 D — COOL 206 0.063 83.6 1.4% 0.0%vs LHP 372 1.9% 10.0% 5.8% 37

vs Foster Griffin · LHP 1.42 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.62 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dillon Dingler ✶ 61 C+ +440 COOL 14 0.253 89.0 10.1% 20.0%vs LHP 398 20.9% 36.4% 28.0% 40

2 Spencer Torkelson 51 C +440 · 47 0.195 89.5 10.8% 10.0%vs LHP 394 15.7% 9.1% 11.5% 37

3 Riley Greene 49 D — COOL 63 0.177 90.5 11.4% 9.1%vs LHP 399 12.1% 10.0% 10.3% 22

4 Kevin Mcgonigle 44 D +550 COOL 101 0.141 87.8 7.8% 8.6%vs LHP 396 20.0% 40.0% 12.1% 41

5 Gleyber Torres 40 D +600 COOL 138 0.128 86.0 8.1% 8.3%vs LHP 389 9.6% 18.2% 8.5% 36

6 Colt Keith 40 D — COOL 139 0.148 88.6 8.0% 9.4% 389 6.1% 0.0% 8.7% 25

7 Zach Mckinstry 31 D — WARM 179 0.109 85.6 4.7% 0.0%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 6.4% 30

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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