TheHomeRuns.org — BOS @ TOR

Suppressed air · 0.96×

BOS @ TOR

Rogers Centre · 7:07p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.96× Wind 6 mph slight_out 77°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-4 ↑

7:07p

-5 ↑

8:07p

-5 ↑

9:07p

-5 ↑

10:07p

-5 ↑

11:07p

best window is early — 7:07p at -4

Best of game Jesús Sánchez conv 12 · vs Suarez ⟷ Wilyer Abreu conv 32 · vs Soriano → edge: Wilyer Abreu

ATTACK Ranger Suarez LHP · BOS

leak 19

0.53 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.46 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jesús Sánchez — D ●●○○○

2 Nathan Lukes — D ●○○○○

3 Ernie Clement — D ●○○○○

FADE José Soriano RHP · LAA

leak 9

0.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.18 · stingy — thin edge

1 Wilyer Abreu +425 C ●●●●●

2 Ceddanne Rafaela +750 D ●●●●○

3 Jarren Duran +625 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Wilyer Abreu: 12.9% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 41.7% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Wilyer Abreu ✶ vs Soriano Edge +425 0.203 · 90.1 · 10.0% 41.7% 22.7% F B O C 55

· — Willson Contreras vs Soriano +400 0.245 · 90.8 · 10.5% 9.1% 16.2% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· — Ceddanne Rafaela vs Soriano +750 0.177 · 86.7 · 6.5% 30.8% 16.1% F B O D 48

· — Jarren Duran vs Soriano Edge +625 0.153 · 89.5 · 8.8% 23.1% 18.5% F B O D 46

· TOR Jesús Sánchez vs Suarez — 0.166 · 91.0 · 7.8% 14.3% 10.6% F B O D 40

· TOR Nathan Lukes vs Suarez — 0.105 · 86.6 · 2.6% 11.1% 8.0% F B O D 27

· — Masataka Yoshida vs Soriano Edge +750 0.128 · 88.6 · 5.3% 9.1% 8.0% F B O D 36

· — Caleb Durbin COOL vs Soriano — 0.152 · 84.1 · 4.7% 8.3% 8.6% F B O D 35

· — Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Soriano — 0.182 · 88.9 · 8.1% 8.3% 7.8% F B O D 43

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Suarez Edge — 0.126 · 84.8 · 3.6% 8.3% 6.6% F B O D 29

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto COOL vs Suarez Edge +400 0.204 · 90.3 · 8.2% 0.0% 11.7% F B O D 45

· TOR Andres Gimenez COOL vs Suarez — 0.123 · 85.8 · 4.3% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 27

· TOR George Springer COOL vs Suarez Edge +575 0.161 · 88.5 · 6.2% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 36

· TOR Myles Straw COOL vs Suarez Edge — 0.108 · 85.8 · 4.2% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 66.3% ← leak BRK 19.8% OFF 13.9% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Kazuma Okamoto R Edge

14.9% 7.1% 14.3% 12.5% D 45 +400

132

Jesús Sánchez L

10.9% 18.6% 0.0% 11.5% D 40 —

160

George Springer R Edge

7.7% 5.6% 7.7% 7.0% D 36 +575

186

Ernie Clement R Edge

2.6% 2.4% 2.0% 2.5% D 29 —

191

Andres Gimenez L

3.8% 2.2% 5.1% 3.5% D 27 —

193

Nathan Lukes L

0.0% 3.6% 2.4% 1.3% D 27 —

194

Myles Straw R Edge

3.9% 0.0% 7.7% 3.4% D 27 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (66.3% usage) carries Suarez's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 50.3% ← leak BRK 30.9% OFF 18.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Willson Contreras R

12.2% 14.5% 21.9% 14.0% C 55 +400

Wilyer Abreu L Edge

12.0% 16.2% 11.8% 12.9% C 55 +425

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Ceddanne Rafaela R

3.6% 5.4% 12.5% 5.4% D 48 +750

Jarren Duran L Edge

12.3% 7.3% 7.8% 10.0% D 46 +625

104

Andruw Monasterio R

7.9% 8.5% 14.3% 8.6% D 43 —

159

Masataka Yoshida L Edge

4.3% 0.0% 4.7% 3.7% D 36 +750

163

Caleb Durbin R

3.4% 1.2% 3.1% 2.8% D 35 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (50.3% usage) carries Soriano's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Abreu Rafaela Duran

Legend

attack side — vs Suarez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Wilyer Abreu +425 · 55

Jarren Duran +625 · 46

Stadium conditions

Rogers Centre

First pitch 7:07p · roof retractable

Park 0.96× Wind 6 mph slight_out 77°F retractable

-4

↑

5 mph · cross

74°F

7:07p · peak

-5

↑

4 mph · in

73°F

8:07p

-5

↑

4 mph · in

71°F

9:07p

-5

↑

5 mph · in

69°F

10:07p

-5

↑

5 mph · in

67°F

11:07p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.96× 77°F, wind 6 mph SW (slight_out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Ranger Suarez · LHP 0.53 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.46 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto 45 D +400 COOL 88 0.204 90.3 8.2% 19.2%vs LHP 397 17.3% 0.0% 11.7% 31

2 Jesús Sánchez 40 D — WARM 132 0.166 91.0 7.8% 0.0%vs LHP 398 10.9% 14.3% 10.6% 16

3 George Springer 36 D +575 COOL 160 0.161 88.5 6.2% 8.3%vs LHP 393 10.9% 0.0% 7.9% 33

4 Ernie Clement 29 D — COOL 186 0.126 84.8 3.6% 10.3%vs LHP 376 8.0% 8.3% 6.6% 44

5 Andres Gimenez 27 D — COOL 191 0.123 85.8 4.3% 16.7%vs LHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 34

6 Nathan Lukes 27 D — WARM 193 0.105 86.6 2.6% 9.8% 381 6.5% 11.1% 8.0% 40

7 Myles Straw 27 D — COOL 194 0.108 85.8 4.2% 6.1%vs LHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 32

vs José Soriano · RHP 0.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.18 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras 55 C +400 · 28 0.245 90.8 10.5% 30.8%vs RHP 406 19.3% 9.1% 16.2% 19

2 Wilyer Abreu ✶ 55 C +425 WARM 33 0.203 90.1 10.0% 16.5%vs RHP 408 16.5% 41.7% 22.7% 34

3 Ceddanne Rafaela 48 D +750 WARM 71 0.177 86.7 6.5% 17.5%vs RHP 380 13.9% 30.8% 16.1% 48

4 Jarren Duran 46 D +625 · 78 0.153 89.5 8.8% 30.6%vs RHP 399 13.4% 23.1% 18.5% 39

5 Andruw Monasterio 43 D — COOL 104 0.182 88.9 8.1% 2.9%vs RHP 390 14.0% 8.3% 7.8% 39

6 Masataka Yoshida 36 D +750 WARM 159 0.128 88.6 5.3% 10.4%vs RHP 368 10.3% 9.1% 8.0% 35

7 Caleb Durbin 35 D — COOL 163 0.152 84.1 4.7% 21.1%vs RHP 375 9.0% 8.3% 8.6% 41

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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