TheHomeRuns.org — NYM @ ATL

Truist Park is live · 1.39×

NYM @ ATL

Truist Park · 7:15p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.07× Wind 8 mph out 82°F Roof open

Hourly window

+11 ↑

7:15p

+11 ↑

8:15p

+10 ↑

9:15p

+9 ↑

10:15p

+7 ↑

11:15p

best window is early — 7:15p at +11

Best of game Francisco Lindor conv 21 · vs Mahle ⟷ Matt Olson conv 46 · vs Thornton → edge: Matt Olson

ATTACK Tyler Mahle RHP · SF

leak 66

1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.25 · leakiest side of this game

1 Francisco Lindor — C ●●●○○

2 Brett Baty — D ●●●○○

3 Marcus Semien — D ●●○○○

FADE Zac Thornton LHP · NYM

leak 11

0.70 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.56 · stingy — thin edge

1 Matt Olson — B ●●●●●

2 Mike Yastrzemski — D ●●●○○

3 Austin Riley — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Matt Olson: 15.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 64.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATL Matt Olson ✶ vs Thornton — 0.283 · 92.7 · 11.6% 64.3% 27.1% F B O B 73

· — Francisco Lindor vs Mahle Edge — 0.197 · 91.6 · 8.0% 21.4% 21.2% F B O C 53

· ATL Drake Baldwin vs Thornton — 0.181 · 91.6 · 10.8% 0.0% 13.2% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski vs Thornton — 0.154 · 90.5 · 8.1% 22.2% 11.7% F B O D 47

· — Brett Baty vs Mahle Edge — 0.115 · 89.8 · 7.7% 20.0% 13.9% F B O D 44

· ATL Austin Riley HOT vs Thornton Edge — 0.144 · 90.9 · 9.9% 15.4% 15.0% F B O D 49

· ATL Dominic Smith vs Thornton — 0.131 · 87.8 · 7.0% 20.0% 10.0% F B O D 42

· — Marcus Semien COOL vs Mahle — 0.146 · 86.6 · 7.2% 16.7% 12.8% F B O D 46

· ATL Ozzie Albies vs Thornton Edge — 0.172 · 86.8 · 6.0% 15.4% 10.6% F B O D 46

· — Carson Benge vs Mahle Edge — 0.139 · 89.3 · 7.3% 15.4% 9.1% F B O D 45

· — Bo Bichette COOL vs Mahle — 0.114 · 89.2 · 6.5% 7.1% 8.6% F B O D 40

· — Francisco Alvarez vs Mahle — 0.185 · 90.1 · 11.0% 0.0% 15.4% F B O D 49

· — A.J. Ewing vs Mahle Edge — 0.136 · — · 7.3% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 39

· ATL Mauricio Dubon vs Thornton Edge — 0.133 · 86.8 · 5.9% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 65.0% ← leak BRK 29.2% OFF 4.1% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Matt Olson L

17.8% 11.7% 12.8% 15.3% B 73 —

Neutral · 1

Drake Baldwin L

13.9% 20.0% 4.4% 14.0% C 53 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Austin Riley R Edge

12.9% 11.1% 5.6% 11.4% D 49 —

Mike Yastrzemski L

8.0% 7.8% 6.7% 7.8% D 47 —

Ozzie Albies S Edge

6.6% 1.8% 2.9% 4.3% D 46 —

116

Dominic Smith L

5.9% 7.5% 2.6% 5.7% D 42 —

158

Mauricio Dubon R Edge

2.9% 5.8% 5.0% 4.1% D 36 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (65.0% usage) carries Thornton's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 65.4% ← leak OFF 25.5% BRK 8.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Francisco Lindor S Edge

12.1% 7.0% 6.2% 9.9% C 53 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Francisco Alvarez R

17.2% 18.2% 15.7% 16.8% D 49 —

Marcus Semien R

10.0% 7.4% 2.2% 7.2% D 46 —

Carson Benge L Edge

7.4% 5.5% 9.6% 7.6% D 45 —

Brett Baty L Edge

8.1% 4.1% 13.2% 8.4% D 44 —

135

Bo Bichette R

4.5% 0.0% 10.4% 5.9% D 40 —

140

A.J. Ewing L Edge

8.3% 2.6% 9.6% 7.6% D 39 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (65.4% usage) carries Mahle's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Olson Riley Yastrzemski Smith Lindor Semien Baty

Legend

attack side — vs Mahle fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Matt Olson — · 73

Francisco Lindor — · 53

Stadium conditions

Truist Park

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 1.07× Wind 8 mph out 82°F open

+11

↑

10 mph · out

77°F

7:15p · peak

+11

↑

9 mph · out

77°F

8:15p

+10

↑

8 mph · out

77°F

9:15p

↑

6 mph · out

77°F

10:15p

↑

4 mph · out

77°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.39× 82°F, wind 8 mph WNW (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Zac Thornton · LHP 0.70 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.56 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson ✶ 73 B — WARM 2 0.283 92.7 11.6% 24.5%vs LHP 407 25.6% 64.3% 27.1% 35

2 Drake Baldwin 53 C — · 38 0.181 91.6 10.8% 35.0%vs LHP 403 17.0% 0.0% 13.2% 45

3 Austin Riley 49 D — HOT 58 0.144 90.9 9.9% 16.0%vs LHP 405 9.2% 15.4% 15.0% 24

4 Mike Yastrzemski 47 D — WARM 74 0.154 90.5 8.1% 0.0%vs LHP 392 9.2% 22.2% 11.7% 19

5 Ozzie Albies 46 D — · 84 0.172 86.8 6.0% 15.1%vs LHP 386 15.0% 15.4% 10.6% 40

6 Dominic Smith 42 D — WARM 116 0.131 87.8 7.0% 0.0%vs LHP 392 8.3% 20.0% 10.0% 10

7 Mauricio Dubon 36 D — WARM 158 0.133 86.8 5.9% 11.1%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 7.6% 42

vs Tyler Mahle · RHP 1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.25 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Francisco Lindor 53 C — · 36 0.197 91.6 8.0% 17.5%vs RHP 393 12.7% 21.4% 21.2% 38

2 Francisco Alvarez 49 D — WARM 55 0.185 90.1 11.0% 28.2%vs RHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 15.4% 23

3 Marcus Semien 46 D — COOL 80 0.146 86.6 7.2% 17.5%vs RHP 391 12.2% 16.7% 12.8% 34

4 Carson Benge 45 D — WARM 90 0.139 89.3 7.3% 15.2%vs RHP 401 9.5% 15.4% 9.1% 41

5 Brett Baty 44 D — WARM 97 0.115 89.8 7.7% 12.1%vs RHP 396 7.3% 20.0% 13.9% 19

6 Bo Bichette 40 D — COOL 135 0.114 89.2 6.5% 9.0%vs RHP 388 8.5% 7.1% 8.6% 45

7 A.J. Ewing 39 D — WARM 140 0.136 — 7.3% 12.8%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 41

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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