TheHomeRuns.org — HOU @ SF

Neutral air · 1.05×

HOU @ SF

Oracle Park · 3:45p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.87× Wind 9 mph out 76°F Roof open

Hourly window

+4 ↑

12:45p

+7 ↑

1:45p

+8 ↑

2:45p

+9 ↑

3:45p

+10 ↑

4:45p

conditions build late — the 4:45p window peaks +10

Best of game Rafael Devers conv 14 · vs King ⟷ Cam Smith conv 17 · vs Proxy → edge: Yordan Alvarez

ATTACK Bryan King LHP

leak 47

1.29 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.58 · leakiest side of this game

1 Rafael Devers — C ●●○○○

2 Jung Hoo Lee — D ●●○○○

3 Willy Adames — D ●○○○○

FADE SF Bullpen Proxy · SF

leak 40

0.97 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Cam Smith — D ●●●○○

2 Yainer Diaz — D ●●○○○

3 Jeremy Peña — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Yordan Alvarez: Match 13.8%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Rafael Devers vs King — 0.225 · 92.5 · 8.3% 15.4% 13.3% F B O C 50

· HOU Yordan Alvarez ✶ vs Proxy — 0.303 · 94.4 · 17.7% 0.0% 13.8% F B O C+ 61

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· HOU Cam Smith vs Proxy — 0.174 · 89.4 · 11.4% 18.2% 15.4% F B O D 47

· HOU Yainer Diaz vs Proxy — 0.148 · 87.6 · 5.3% 20.0% 9.9% F B O D 36

· HOU Jeremy Peña vs Proxy — 0.186 · 88.3 · 5.4% 16.7% 11.9% F B O D 40

· — Jung Hoo Lee vs King — 0.147 · 86.8 · 3.9% 15.4% 8.9% F B O D 33

· HOU Christian Walker COOL vs Proxy — 0.215 · 89.5 · 9.6% 8.3% 11.6% F B O D 48

· — Willy Adames COOL vs King Edge — 0.189 · 87.3 · 7.3% 7.7% 11.5% F B O D 42

· — Bryce Eldridge COOL vs King — 0.178 · 92.1 · 8.5% 8.3% 8.8% F B O D 44

· HOU Isaac Paredes COOL vs Proxy — 0.164 · 86.3 · 5.5% 9.1% 7.7% F B O D 36

· — Drew Gilbert HOT vs King — 0.126 · 86.1 · 4.3% 10.0% 6.1% F B O D 30

· HOU Jose Altuve COOL vs Proxy — 0.151 · 85.6 · 5.2% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 30

· HOU Christian Vazquez COOL vs Proxy — 0.109 · 85.7 · 1.2% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 23

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for SF Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

FB 70.7% ← leak BRK 28.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Rafael Devers L

12.3% 10.3% 11.0% C 50 —

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

102

Bryce Eldridge L

11.7% 8.1% 11.7% D 44 —

117

Willy Adames R Edge

7.7% 8.5% 8.5% D 42 —

170

Jung Hoo Lee L

2.8% 2.6% 2.7% D 33 —

184

Drew Gilbert L

4.0% 4.3% 3.4% D 30 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (70.7% usage) carries King's damage — FB is the leak. 1 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alvarez Smith Peña Diaz Devers

Legend

attack side — vs King fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Oracle Park

First pitch 12:45p · roof open

Park 0.87× Wind 9 mph out 76°F open

↑

9 mph · out

67°F

12:45p

↑

11 mph · out

70°F

1:45p

↑

12 mph · out

72°F

2:45p

↑

13 mph · out

73°F

3:45p

+10

↑

14 mph · out

73°F

4:45p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.05× 76°F, wind 9 mph WSW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs SF Bullpen Proxy 0.97 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez ✶ 61 C+ — · 22 0.303 94.4 17.7% 23.5% 405 0.0% 0.0% 13.8% 36

2 Christian Walker 48 D — COOL 92 0.215 89.5 9.6% 19.6% 391 17.7% 8.3% 11.6% 37

3 Cam Smith 47 D — WARM 103 0.174 89.4 11.4% 17.6% 408 13.1% 18.2% 15.4% 28

4 Jeremy Peña 40 D — · 157 0.186 88.3 5.4% 19.7% 385 14.5% 16.7% 11.9% 34

5 Yainer Diaz 36 D — · 171 0.148 87.6 5.3% 18.2% 398 10.3% 20.0% 9.9% 32

6 Isaac Paredes 36 D — COOL 172 0.164 86.3 5.5% 9.7% 377 11.4% 9.1% 7.7% 41

7 Jose Altuve 30 D — COOL 197 0.151 85.6 5.2% 15.9% 379 0.0% 0.0% 7.7% 40

8 Christian Vazquez 23 D — COOL 207 0.109 85.7 1.2% 9.1% 377 0.0% 0.0% 7.6% 6

vs Bryan King · LHP 1.29 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.58 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers 50 C — · 51 0.225 92.5 8.3% 12.1%vs LHP 398 17.9% 15.4% 13.3% 34

2 Bryce Eldridge 44 D — COOL 102 0.178 92.1 8.5% 11.8%vs LHP 396 18.9% 8.3% 8.8% 34

3 Willy Adames 42 D — COOL 117 0.189 87.3 7.3% 11.5%vs LHP 387 14.7% 7.7% 11.5% 36

4 Jung Hoo Lee 33 D — WARM 170 0.147 86.8 3.9% 10.0%vs LHP 382 6.4% 15.4% 8.9% 48

5 Drew Gilbert 30 D — HOT 184 0.126 86.1 4.3% 7.8% 398 4.3% 10.0% 6.1% 26

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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