TheHomeRuns.org — BAL @ MIN

Target Field is live · 1.14×

BAL @ MIN

Target Field · 1:40p · 12 ranked batters

Park 0.95× Wind 4 mph cross 86°F Roof open

Hourly window

-2 ↑

12:40p

+0 ↑

1:40p

+2 ↑

2:40p

+2 ↑

3:40p

+2 ↑

4:40p

the 2:40p window peaks +2

Best of game Pete Alonso conv 28 · vs Matthews ⟷ Royce Lewis conv 20 · vs Baz → edge: Pete Alonso

ATTACK Zebby Matthews RHP · MIN

leak 98

1.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.03 · leakiest side of this game

1 Pete Alonso — C+ ●●●●○

2 Coby Mayo — C ●●○○○

3 Colton Cowser — D ●●○○○

FADE Shane Baz RHP · BAL

leak 14

0.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.54 · stingy — thin edge

1 Royce Lewis — D ●●●○○

2 Josh Bell — D ●●●○○

3 Trevor Larnach — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Alonso: 13.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BAL Pete Alonso ✶ vs Matthews — 0.218 · 94.1 · 12.7% 25.0% 30.1% F B O C+ 63

· MIN Kody Clemens COOL vs Baz Edge — 0.234 · 92.4 · 8.8% 16.7% 14.5% F B O C 54

· BAL Coby Mayo vs Matthews — 0.223 · 92.4 · 11.5% 11.1% 15.1% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· MIN Royce Lewis vs Baz — 0.187 · 90.2 · 9.2% 23.1% 17.2% F B O D 48

· MIN Josh Bell vs Baz Edge — 0.174 · 89.9 · 8.2% 25.0% 14.6% F B O D 44

· MIN Trevor Larnach vs Baz Edge — 0.165 · 87.3 · 7.2% 22.2% 13.2% F B O D 40

· MIN Brooks Lee vs Baz Edge — 0.177 · 87.7 · 5.1% 16.7% 10.8% F B O D 40

· MIN Luke Keaschall vs Baz — 0.096 · 84.6 · 4.6% 16.7% 7.5% F B O D 29

· BAL Colton Cowser vs Matthews Edge — 0.127 · 87.2 · 11.1% 12.5% 10.8% F B O D 46

· BAL Gunnar Henderson HOT vs Matthews Edge — 0.170 · 89.6 · 9.1% 8.3% 10.7% F B O D 48

· BAL Leody Taveras vs Matthews Edge — 0.133 · 87.6 · 7.4% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 38

· MIN Victor Caratini COOL vs Baz Edge — 0.110 · 89.5 · 6.6% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 52.5% ← leak BRK 34.3% OFF 13.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Pete Alonso R

15.3% 9.8% 16.2% 13.8% C+ 63 —

Coby Mayo R

10.0% 11.7% 16.0% 11.4% C 55 —

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Gunnar Henderson L Edge

7.7% 5.8% 7.2% 7.1% D 48 —

Colton Cowser L Edge

15.6% 10.5% 2.3% 10.7% D 46 —

147

Leody Taveras S Edge

5.3% 7.8% 0.0% 4.7% D 38 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.5% usage) carries Matthews's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 58.8% ← leak BRK 32.6% OFF 8.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Kody Clemens L Edge

8.9% 19.4% 10.4% 11.5% C 54 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Royce Lewis R

15.6% 7.9% 8.3% 12.6% D 48 —

Josh Bell S Edge

10.5% 12.9% 5.6% 9.9% D 44 —

129

Trevor Larnach L Edge

7.7% 9.1% 5.7% 7.8% D 40 —

131

Brooks Lee S Edge

7.1% 0.0% 1.2% 3.8% D 40 —

180

Victor Caratini S Edge

5.4% 11.8% 6.1% 6.5% D 30 —

185

Luke Keaschall R

4.3% 2.2% 0.0% 3.2% D 29 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.8% usage) carries Baz's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alonso Mayo Clemens Lewis Bell Larnach Lee

Legend

attack side — vs Matthews fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Pete Alonso — · 63

Stadium conditions

Target Field

First pitch 12:40p · roof open

Park 0.95× Wind 4 mph cross 86°F open

-2

↑

3 mph · cross

80°F

12:40p

↑

3 mph · slight_out

81°F

1:40p

↑

3 mph · out

83°F

2:40p · peak

↑

2 mph · out

85°F

3:40p

↑

2 mph · out

85°F

4:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.14× 86°F, wind 4 mph ENE (cross) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Zebby Matthews · RHP 1.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.03 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso ✶ 63 C+ — WARM 8 0.218 94.1 12.7% 27.1%vs RHP 401 19.3% 25.0% 30.1% 32

2 Coby Mayo 55 C — WARM 29 0.223 92.4 11.5% 11.8%vs RHP 407 15.7% 11.1% 15.1% 24

3 Gunnar Henderson 48 D — HOT 70 0.170 89.6 9.1% 16.2%vs RHP 390 15.4% 8.3% 10.7% 31

4 Colton Cowser 46 D — · 81 0.127 87.2 11.1% 18.8%vs RHP 419 13.1% 12.5% 10.8% 16

5 Leody Taveras 38 D — · 147 0.133 87.6 7.4% 14.0%vs RHP 409 3.7% 0.0% 8.1% 24

vs Shane Baz · RHP 0.67 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.54 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kody Clemens 54 C — COOL 35 0.234 92.4 8.8% 19.0%vs RHP 391 17.3% 16.7% 14.5% 36

2 Royce Lewis 48 D — WARM 66 0.187 90.2 9.2% 18.0%vs RHP 400 16.9% 23.1% 17.2% 37

3 Josh Bell 44 D — WARM 96 0.174 89.9 8.2% 19.0%vs RHP 405 11.8% 25.0% 14.6% 40

4 Trevor Larnach 40 D — · 129 0.165 87.3 7.2% 16.1%vs RHP 397 9.7% 22.2% 13.2% 27

5 Brooks Lee 40 D — · 131 0.177 87.7 5.1% 20.0%vs RHP 371 14.7% 16.7% 10.8% 37

6 Victor Caratini 30 D — COOL 180 0.110 89.5 6.6% 16.7%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 14

7 Luke Keaschall 29 D — WARM 185 0.096 84.6 4.6% 9.2%vs RHP 373 5.9% 16.7% 7.5% 35

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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