TheHomeRuns.org — PHI @ STL

Busch Stadium is live · 1.23×

PHI @ STL

Busch Stadium · 2:15p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.82× Wind 9 mph out 95°F Roof open

Hourly window

+7 ↑

1:15p

+7 ↑

2:15p

+8 ↑

3:15p

+7 ↑

4:15p

+5 ↑

5:15p

the 3:15p window peaks +8

Best of game Bryce Harper conv 25 · vs Leahy ⟷ Alec Burleson conv 18 · vs Wheeler → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Kyle Leahy RHP · STL

leak 87

0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.11 · leakiest side of this game

1 Bryce Harper +450 C ●●●●○

2 Kyle Schwarber +220 C+ ●●●○○

3 Trea Turner +650 D ●●●○○

FADE Zack Wheeler RHP · PHI

leak 87

1.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.35 · stingy — thin edge

1 Alec Burleson +450 D ●●●○○

2 Jordan Walker +500 D ●●○○○

3 Nathan Church +900 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: Match 29.7% · 14D pace 8.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PHI Bryce Harper vs Leahy Edge +450 0.244 · 90.2 · 10.9% 23.1% 27.9% F B O C 55

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ vs Leahy Edge +220 0.288 · 93.1 · 13.4% 8.3% 29.7% F B O C+ 62

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· STL Alec Burleson vs Wheeler Edge +450 0.196 · 91.8 · 8.5% 16.7% 19.6% F B O D 44

· PHI Trea Turner COOL vs Leahy +650 0.152 · 88.5 · 8.2% 25.0% 10.9% F B O D 40

· STL Jordan Walker COOL vs Wheeler +500 0.205 · 92.7 · 9.1% 8.3% 13.1% F B O D 44

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Wheeler Edge +900 0.123 · 86.1 · 6.6% 8.3% 7.4% F B O D 30

· PHI Brandon Marsh COOL vs Leahy Edge +800 0.163 · 89.7 · 9.3% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 39

· STL Ivan Herrera vs Wheeler +750 0.144 · 89.5 · 5.9% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 28

· PHI Bryson Stott vs Leahy Edge +700 0.154 · 89.7 · 8.2% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 35

· STL Jj Wetherholt vs Wheeler Edge +425 0.137 · 89.7 · 6.8% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 31

· PHI J.T. Realmuto vs Leahy +575 0.130 · — · 7.0% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 28

· STL Masyn Winn vs Wheeler +1000 0.083 · 88.2 · 4.5% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 22

· STL José Fermín vs Wheeler — 0.118 · 86.8 · 3.6% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 25

· PHI Alec Bohm vs Leahy — 0.132 · 90.5 · 7.2% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 33

· PHI Justin Crawford HOT vs Leahy Edge — 0.090 · 87.0 · 3.9% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 23

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

BRK 46.2% FB 40.2% OFF 13.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Kyle Schwarber L Edge

15.4% 16.3% 28.6% 17.4% C+ 62 +220

Bryce Harper L Edge

14.8% 11.5% 6.2% 11.6% C 55 +450

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

130

Trea Turner R

4.8% 8.3% 2.5% 6.5% D 40 +650

143

Brandon Marsh L Edge

13.8% 7.4% 2.1% 8.4% D 39 +800

164

Bryson Stott L Edge

4.2% 8.4% 5.1% 6.5% D 35 +700

169

Alec Bohm R

4.9% 4.5% 8.8% 5.0% D 33 —

188

J.T. Realmuto R

7.3% 3.9% 5.0% 4.8% D 28 +575

204

Justin Crawford L Edge

1.3% 2.2% 0.0% 1.5% D 23 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Leahy's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 61.3% ← leak BRK 22.8% OFF 15.9% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Alec Burleson L Edge

12.0% 11.9% 10.0% 11.6% D 44 +450

Jordan Walker R

13.5% 11.8% 17.1% 13.3% D 44 +500

177

Jj Wetherholt L Edge

10.2% 4.3% 2.0% 7.5% D 31 +425

181

Nathan Church L Edge

8.6% 6.5% 4.7% 6.9% D 30 +900

187

Ivan Herrera R

5.9% 4.8% 6.7% 5.6% D 28 +750

201

José Fermín R

2.5% 2.3% 0.0% 2.1% D 25 —

205

Masyn Winn R

3.3% 2.0% 6.1% 3.2% D 22 +1000

Read the columns: the fastball family (61.3% usage) carries Wheeler's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Schwarber Harper Turner Burleson

Legend

attack side — vs Leahy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Bryce Harper +450 · 55

Stadium conditions

Busch Stadium

First pitch 1:15p · roof open

Park 0.82× Wind 9 mph out 95°F open

↑

10 mph · out

90°F

1:15p

↑

10 mph · out

92°F

2:15p

↑

11 mph · out

94°F

3:15p · peak

↑

10 mph · out

95°F

4:15p

↑

8 mph · out

95°F

5:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.23× 95°F, wind 9 mph WSW (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Kyle Leahy · RHP 0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.11 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 62 C+ +220 · 10 0.288 93.1 13.4% 43.4%vs RHP 404 22.5% 8.3% 29.7% 22

2 Bryce Harper 55 C +450 · 30 0.244 90.2 10.9% 36.2%vs RHP 403 19.8% 23.1% 27.9% 31

3 Trea Turner 40 D +650 COOL 130 0.152 88.5 8.2% 21.5%vs RHP 392 14.2% 25.0% 10.9% 45

4 Brandon Marsh 39 D +800 COOL 143 0.163 89.7 9.3% 19.7%vs RHP 393 11.9% 0.0% 9.3% 42

5 Bryson Stott 35 D +700 WARM 164 0.154 89.7 8.2% 9.3%vs RHP 389 7.2% 0.0% 7.6% 36

6 Alec Bohm 33 D — · 169 0.132 90.5 7.2% 14.6%vs RHP 396 10.8% 0.0% 6.4% 43

7 J.T. Realmuto 28 D +575 WARM 188 0.130 — 7.0% 18.9%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% 29

8 Justin Crawford 23 D — HOT 204 0.090 87.0 3.9% 4.7%vs RHP 382 2.3% 0.0% 6.0% 35

vs Zack Wheeler · RHP 1.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.35 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Alec Burleson 44 D +450 · 95 0.196 91.8 8.5% 22.2%vs RHP 404 14.9% 16.7% 19.6% 32

2 Jordan Walker 44 D +500 COOL 98 0.205 92.7 9.1% 27.4%vs RHP 408 16.8% 8.3% 13.1% 35

3 Jj Wetherholt 31 D +425 · 177 0.137 89.7 6.8% 16.7%vs RHP 391 16.7% 0.0% 7.6% 38

4 Nathan Church 30 D +900 COOL 181 0.123 86.1 6.6% 18.4%vs RHP 384 8.5% 8.3% 7.4% 35

5 Ivan Herrera 28 D +750 WARM 187 0.144 89.5 5.9% 19.1%vs RHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% 45

6 José Fermín 25 D — WARM 201 0.118 86.8 3.6% 8.0%vs RHP 388 5.8% 0.0% 6.5% 33

7 Masyn Winn 22 D +1000 · 205 0.083 88.2 4.5% 9.1%vs RHP 390 3.5% 0.0% 6.6% 31

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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