TheHomeRuns.org — MIL @ SD

Playable air · 1.09×

MIL @ SD

Petco Park · 4:10p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.91× Wind 10 mph slight_out 82°F Roof open

Hourly window

-2 ↑

1:10p

-2 ↑

2:10p

-2 ↑

3:10p

-1 ↑

4:10p

-1 ↑

5:10p

conditions build late — the 4:10p window peaks -1

Best of game Jackson Chourio conv 28 · vs Ray ⟷ Jackson Merrill conv 23 · vs May → edge: Jackson Chourio

ATTACK Robbie Ray LHP · SF

leak 11

1.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.21 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jackson Chourio +350 C ●●●●○

2 Jake Bauers — C ●●●●○

3 Christian Yelich — D ●○○○○

FADE Dustin May RHP · STL

leak 7

0.64 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.48 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jackson Merrill +460 D ●●●●○

2 Gavin Sheets +575 D ●●○○○

3 Ty France +550 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jackson Chourio: 13.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 30.8% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Jackson Chourio ✶ vs Ray Edge +350 0.202 · 92.2 · 10.7% 30.8% 24.8% F B O C 55

· — Jake Bauers vs Ray — 0.235 · 92.8 · 10.7% 25.0% 21.0% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· — Jackson Merrill vs May Edge +460 0.174 · 90.3 · 8.9% 28.6% 17.0% F B O D 46

· — Gavin Sheets vs May Edge +575 0.182 · 87.5 · 7.0% 7.1% 13.9% F B O D 39

· — Ty France COOL vs May +550 0.234 · 92.2 · 8.6% 7.1% 13.3% F B O D 47

· — Christian Yelich COOL vs Ray — 0.144 · 88.7 · 8.6% 9.1% 7.6% F B O D 40

· — William Contreras vs Ray Edge +440 0.123 · 89.8 · 7.7% 9.1% 6.6% F B O D 37

· — Brice Turang COOL vs Ray — 0.182 · 90.6 · 8.0% 7.7% 7.8% F B O D 43

· — Manny Machado vs May +475 0.205 · 90.8 · 8.6% 0.0% 11.5% F B O D 45

· — Garrett Mitchell COOL vs Ray — 0.155 · 92.9 · 10.4% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 43

· — Jake Cronenworth COOL vs May Edge +800 0.066 · 87.5 · 5.3% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 25

· — Xander Bogaerts vs May +850 0.097 · 88.4 · 6.1% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 28

· — David Hamilton COOL vs Ray +950 0.090 · 87.1 · 5.5% 0.0% 5.6% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 47.0% ← leak BRK 35.5% OFF 17.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jake Bauers L

14.4% 13.4% 14.7% 14.2% C 57 —

Jackson Chourio R Edge

14.5% 15.4% 3.4% 13.5% C 55 +350

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

109

Garrett Mitchell L

16.1% 10.9% 6.7% 13.3% D 43 —

110

Brice Turang L

9.7% 8.8% 1.7% 7.9% D 43 —

136

Christian Yelich L

8.1% 10.0% 12.5% 9.1% D 40 —

154

William Contreras R Edge

8.0% 8.1% 0.0% 7.3% D 37 +440

183

David Hamilton L

3.2% 7.9% 0.0% 3.8% D 30 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (47.0% usage) carries Ray's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 67.0% ← leak BRK 26.0% OFF 7.1% Overall Score

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Ty France R

11.0% 11.4% 10.0% 11.0% D 47 +550

Jackson Merrill L Edge

14.0% 11.3% 6.8% 11.7% D 46 +460

Manny Machado R

12.8% 6.5% 9.5% 10.6% D 45 +475

141

Gavin Sheets L Edge

10.3% 4.2% 1.7% 7.1% D 39 +575

189

Xander Bogaerts R

7.0% 2.4% 3.4% 5.4% D 28 +850

200

Jake Cronenworth L Edge

4.5% 2.9% 3.6% 4.0% D 25 +800

Read the columns: the fastball family (67.0% usage) carries May's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Bauers Chourio Merrill

Legend

attack side — vs Ray fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Jackson Chourio +350 · 55

Jake Bauers — · 57

Stadium conditions

Petco Park

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 0.91× Wind 10 mph slight_out 82°F open

-2

↑

10 mph · slight_out

78°F

1:10p

-2

↑

10 mph · slight_out

78°F

2:10p

-2

↑

9 mph · slight_out

79°F

3:10p

-1

↑

9 mph · slight_out

80°F

4:10p · peak

-1

↑

8 mph · slight_out

80°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.09× 82°F, wind 10 mph W (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Robbie Ray · LHP 1.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.21 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers 57 C — · 24 0.235 92.8 10.7% 20.0%vs LHP 401 20.0% 25.0% 21.0% 29

2 Jackson Chourio ✶ 55 C +350 WARM 31 0.202 92.2 10.7% 41.7%vs LHP 401 17.5% 30.8% 24.8% 34

3 Garrett Mitchell 43 D — COOL 109 0.155 92.9 10.4% 19.0% 415 7.2% 0.0% 8.1% 26

4 Brice Turang 43 D — COOL 110 0.182 90.6 8.0% 5.9%vs LHP 407 11.2% 7.7% 7.8% 36

5 Christian Yelich 40 D — COOL 136 0.144 88.7 8.6% 20.0%vs LHP 404 7.5% 9.1% 7.6% 28

6 William Contreras 37 D +440 WARM 154 0.123 89.8 7.7% 8.7%vs LHP 417 9.3% 9.1% 6.6% 33

7 David Hamilton 30 D +950 COOL 183 0.090 87.1 5.5% 5.1% 383 3.8% 0.0% 5.6% 27

vs Dustin May · RHP 0.64 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.48 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ty France 47 D +550 COOL 72 0.234 92.2 8.6% 28.9%vs RHP 394 16.9% 7.1% 13.3% 40

2 Jackson Merrill 46 D +460 WARM 79 0.174 90.3 8.9% 20.3%vs RHP 411 15.9% 28.6% 17.0% 43

3 Manny Machado 45 D +475 WARM 89 0.205 90.8 8.6% 27.1%vs RHP 397 18.3% 0.0% 11.5% 37

4 Gavin Sheets 39 D +575 WARM 141 0.182 87.5 7.0% 30.2%vs RHP 397 10.4% 7.1% 13.9% 17

5 Xander Bogaerts 28 D +850 WARM 189 0.097 88.4 6.1% 14.5%vs RHP 396 7.1% 0.0% 6.3% 34

6 Jake Cronenworth 25 D +800 COOL 200 0.066 87.5 5.3% 10.3%vs RHP 389 1.4% 0.0% 6.6% 40

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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