TheHomeRuns.org — TB @ ATH

Sutter Health Park is live · 1.33×

TB @ ATH

Sutter Health Park · 3:05p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.21× Wind 4 mph out 84°F Roof open

Hourly window

+12 ↑

12:05p

+12 ↑

1:05p

+13 ↑

2:05p

+16 ↑

3:05p

+18 ↑

4:05p

conditions build late — the 4:05p window peaks +18

Best of game Tyler Soderstrom conv 21 · vs Rasmussen ⟷ Junior Caminero conv 39 · vs Perkins → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Drew Rasmussen RHP · TB

leak 85

0.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Tyler Soderstrom — C ●●●○○

2 Lawrence Butler — D ●●●○○

3 Henry Bolte — D ●●○○○

FADE Jack Perkins RHP · ATH

leak 74

1.75 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.71 · stingy — thin edge

1 Junior Caminero — B ●●●●●

2 Richie Palacios — D ●●○○○

3 Cedric Mullins — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: 13.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 38.5%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TB Junior Caminero ✶ vs Perkins — 0.270 · 93.0 · 11.3% 38.5% 40.5% F B O B 75

· ATH Tyler Soderstrom vs Rasmussen Edge — 0.229 · 90.7 · 8.0% 15.4% 25.8% F B O C 58

· TB Jonathan Aranda vs Perkins Edge — 0.148 · 90.8 · 9.6% 8.3% 12.7% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Rasmussen Edge — 0.114 · 89.3 · 6.8% 23.1% 16.8% F B O D 43

· ATH Henry Bolte vs Rasmussen — 0.097 · 90.8 · 7.3% 15.4% 10.8% F B O D 42

· TB Richie Palacios vs Perkins Edge — 0.117 · 86.2 · 6.2% 11.1% 12.8% F B O D 44

· TB Cedric Mullins COOL vs Perkins Edge — 0.151 · 88.0 · 5.9% 9.1% 13.5% F B O D 49

· TB Taylor Walls COOL vs Perkins Edge — 0.064 · 85.4 · 4.7% 8.3% 11.3% F B O D 37

· TB Yandy Diaz vs Perkins — 0.161 · 90.9 · 7.9% 0.0% 17.1% F B O D 48

· ATH Jonah Heim vs Rasmussen Edge — 0.190 · 87.5 · 7.0% 0.0% 13.2% F B O D 47

· ATH Carlos Cortes COOL vs Rasmussen Edge — 0.148 · 89.8 · 7.0% 0.0% 11.8% F B O D 43

· TB Nick Fortes COOL vs Perkins — 0.105 · 85.6 · 4.6% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 40

· ATH Jeff Mcneil COOL vs Rasmussen Edge — 0.077 · 86.2 · 2.7% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 31

· ATH Jacob Wilson vs Rasmussen — 0.125 · 84.1 · 4.2% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 37

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Perkins Edge — 0.057 · 84.0 · — 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 26

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 49.6% ← leak BRK 30.9% OFF 19.5% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Junior Caminero R

16.8% 11.7% 7.7% 13.7% B 75 —

Neutral · 1

Jonathan Aranda L Edge

9.9% 14.1% 5.2% 10.0% C 53 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Cedric Mullins L Edge

3.0% 3.3% 8.3% 3.8% D 49 —

Yandy Diaz R

5.7% 10.3% 4.3% 7.0% D 48 —

Richie Palacios L Edge

5.5% 2.0% 3.4% 4.2% D 44 —

133

Nick Fortes R

2.9% 1.8% 0.0% 2.3% D 40 —

155

Taylor Walls S Edge

3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 2.4% D 37 —

198

Chandler Simpson L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 26 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (49.6% usage) carries Perkins's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 81.1% ← leak OFF 12.1% BRK 6.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Tyler Soderstrom L Edge

9.5% 0.0% 15.6% 9.6% C 58 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Jonah Heim S Edge

7.8% 10.9% 4.1% 7.6% D 47 —

106

Carlos Cortes L Edge

7.7% 8.2% 4.3% 7.0% D 43 —

111

Lawrence Butler L Edge

6.6% 3.9% 8.7% 6.4% D 43 —

113

Henry Bolte R

8.8% 4.8% 6.8% 7.8% D 42 —

151

Jacob Wilson R

4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% D 37 —

178

Jeff Mcneil L Edge

0.6% 1.7% 1.8% 1.1% D 31 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (81.1% usage) carries Rasmussen's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caminero Soderstrom Butler Bolte

Legend

attack side — vs Rasmussen fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Junior Caminero — · 75

Stadium conditions

Sutter Health Park

First pitch 12:05p · roof open

Park 1.21× Wind 4 mph out 84°F open

+12

↑

6 mph · out

72°F

12:05p

+12

↑

6 mph · out

76°F

1:05p

+13

↑

7 mph · out

81°F

2:05p

+16

↑

9 mph · out

84°F

3:05p

+18

↑

11 mph · out

87°F

4:05p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.33× 84°F, wind 4 mph SW (out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jack Perkins · RHP 1.75 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.71 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 75 B — WARM 1 0.270 93.0 11.3% 40.6%vs RHP 412 27.6% 38.5% 40.5% 35

2 Jonathan Aranda 53 C — · 39 0.148 90.8 9.6% 17.2%vs RHP 386 11.7% 8.3% 12.7% 42

3 Cedric Mullins 49 D — COOL 60 0.151 88.0 5.9% 20.3%vs RHP 389 12.8% 9.1% 13.5% 26

4 Yandy Diaz 48 D — WARM 64 0.161 90.9 7.9% 20.4%vs RHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 17.1% 46

5 Richie Palacios 44 D — WARM 94 0.117 86.2 6.2% 13.9%vs RHP 398 4.7% 11.1% 12.8% 17

6 Nick Fortes 40 D — COOL 133 0.105 85.6 4.6% 14.3%vs RHP 396 4.5% 0.0% 9.8% 15

7 Taylor Walls 37 D — COOL 155 0.064 85.4 4.7% 0.0%vs RHP 0 1.0% 8.3% 11.3% 30

8 Chandler Simpson 26 D — COOL 198 0.057 84.0 — 2.9%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 49

vs Drew Rasmussen · RHP 0.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Tyler Soderstrom 58 C — WARM 20 0.229 90.7 8.0% 19.6%vs RHP 404 16.2% 15.4% 25.8% 30

2 Jonah Heim 47 D — WARM 73 0.190 87.5 7.0% 6.7%vs RHP 414 10.0% 0.0% 13.2% 41

3 Carlos Cortes 43 D — COOL 106 0.148 89.8 7.0% 15.9%vs RHP 403 4.9% 0.0% 11.8% 11

4 Lawrence Butler 43 D — WARM 111 0.114 89.3 6.8% 18.4%vs RHP 407 6.0% 23.1% 16.8% 39

5 Henry Bolte 42 D — WARM 113 0.097 90.8 7.3% 5.0%vs RHP 423 10.3% 15.4% 10.8% 29

6 Jacob Wilson 37 D — · 151 0.125 84.1 4.2% 15.2%vs RHP 386 6.7% 0.0% 9.1% 38

7 Jeff Mcneil 31 D — COOL 178 0.077 86.2 2.7% 8.7%vs RHP 377 2.9% 0.0% 9.4% 31

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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