TheHomeRuns.org — KC @ LAD

Dodger Stadium is live · 1.30×

KC @ LAD

Dodger Stadium · 10:10p · 12 ranked batters

Park 1.08× Wind 7 mph out 75°F Roof open

Hourly window

+10 ↑

7:10p

+8 ↑

8:10p

+8 ↑

9:10p

+7 ↑

10:10p

+6 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at +10

Best of game Jac Caglianone conv 31 · vs Lauer ⟷ Shohei Ohtani conv 20 · vs IV → edge: Jac Caglianone

ATTACK Eric Lauer LHP · LAD

leak 95

2.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.72 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jac Caglianone — C+ ●●●●●

2 Carter Jensen — C+ ●●●○○

3 Michael Massey — C ●●○○○

FADE Daniel Lynch IV LHP · CHC

leak 3

0.38 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.83 · stingy — thin edge

1 Shohei Ohtani — C+ ●●●○○

2 Andy Pages — D ●●○○○

3 Kyle Tucker — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jac Caglianone: 14.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 30.8%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· KC Jac Caglianone ✶ COOL vs Lauer — 0.221 · 93.0 · 12.6% 30.8% 32.1% F B O C+ 69

· — Shohei Ohtani COOL vs IV — 0.250 · 93.3 · 9.7% 15.4% 25.2% F B O C+ 61

· KC Carter Jensen vs Lauer — 0.189 · 90.6 · 10.4% 16.7% 20.2% F B O C+ 60

· KC Michael Massey COOL vs Lauer — 0.161 · 89.7 · 8.0% 8.3% 14.9% F B O C 50

· — Max Muncy COOL vs IV — 0.237 · 90.4 · 8.8% 6.7% 13.6% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· — Andy Pages vs IV Edge — 0.186 · 89.1 · 6.6% 15.4% 11.7% F B O D 47

· — Kyle Tucker COOL vs IV — 0.144 · 89.0 · 6.0% 16.7% 7.3% F B O D 41

· — Mookie Betts COOL vs IV Edge — 0.160 · 90.5 · 6.4% 8.3% 8.4% F B O D 43

· — Teoscar Hernandez vs IV Edge — 0.153 · 89.2 · 7.2% 0.0% 16.6% F B O D 41

· KC Salvador Perez COOL vs Lauer Edge — 0.155 · 88.8 · 10.3% 0.0% 10.7% F B O D 49

· — Freddie Freeman COOL vs IV — 0.168 · 89.9 · 7.2% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 44

· KC Isaac Collins COOL vs Lauer Edge — 0.127 · 88.5 · 7.7% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 45

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 63.7% ← leak BRK 20.5% OFF 15.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Jac Caglianone L

13.7% 18.1% 11.9% 14.8% C+ 69 —

Carter Jensen L

10.2% 9.4% 10.0% 9.8% C+ 60 —

Michael Massey L

7.4% 5.6% 1.9% 5.9% C 50 —

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

Salvador Perez R Edge

13.1% 6.6% 7.7% 9.6% D 49 —

Isaac Collins S Edge

6.0% 9.7% 2.4% 5.9% D 45 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (63.7% usage) carries Lauer's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 44.7% ← leak BRK 30.3% OFF 25.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Shohei Ohtani L

20.1% 10.4% 15.7% 16.3% C+ 61 —

Max Muncy L

14.0% 8.6% 5.9% 11.0% C 55 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Andy Pages R Edge

7.3% 7.9% 8.6% 7.6% D 47 —

100

Freddie Freeman L

9.3% 9.0% 8.8% 9.1% D 44 —

112

Mookie Betts R Edge

8.7% 3.2% 6.2% 7.2% D 43 —

120

Teoscar Hernandez R Edge

8.6% 12.2% 6.9% 9.1% D 41 —

126

Kyle Tucker L

9.4% 3.2% 1.4% 6.4% D 41 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (44.7% usage) carries IV's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caglianone Jensen Ohtani Pages

Legend

attack side — vs Lauer fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Jac Caglianone — · 69

Stadium conditions

Dodger Stadium

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 1.08× Wind 7 mph out 75°F open

+10

↑

7 mph · out

74°F

7:10p · peak

↑

6 mph · out

71°F

8:10p

↑

6 mph · out

71°F

9:10p

↑

5 mph · out

70°F

10:10p

↑

4 mph · out

69°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.30× 75°F, wind 7 mph SW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Eric Lauer · LHP 2.19 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.72 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jac Caglianone ✶ 69 C+ — COOL 6 0.221 93.0 12.6% 26.3%vs LHP 418 15.1% 30.8% 32.1% 46

2 Carter Jensen 60 C+ — · 18 0.189 90.6 10.4% 11.1%vs LHP 394 14.9% 16.7% 20.2% 27

3 Michael Massey 50 C — COOL 49 0.161 89.7 8.0% 33.3%vs LHP 401 6.2% 8.3% 14.9% 38

4 Salvador Perez 49 D — COOL 56 0.155 88.8 10.3% 14.7%vs LHP 405 0.0% 0.0% 10.7% 40

5 Isaac Collins 45 D — COOL 91 0.127 88.5 7.7% 8.7%vs LHP 394 5.9% 0.0% 8.3% 32

vs Daniel Lynch IV · LHP 0.38 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.83 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shohei Ohtani 61 C+ — COOL 12 0.250 93.3 9.7% 32.4%vs LHP 403 19.1% 15.4% 25.2% 34

2 Max Muncy 55 C — COOL 32 0.237 90.4 8.8% 25.9%vs LHP 411 18.2% 6.7% 13.6% 31

3 Andy Pages 47 D — · 75 0.186 89.1 6.6% 17.1%vs LHP 392 13.7% 15.4% 11.7% 41

4 Freddie Freeman 44 D — COOL 100 0.168 89.9 7.2% 14.3%vs LHP 398 11.2% 0.0% 8.4% 42

5 Mookie Betts 43 D — COOL 112 0.160 90.5 6.4% 5.4%vs LHP 389 10.4% 8.3% 8.4% 42

6 Teoscar Hernandez 41 D — · 120 0.153 89.2 7.2% 19.1%vs LHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 16.6% 32

7 Kyle Tucker 41 D — COOL 126 0.144 89.0 6.0% 6.7%vs LHP 392 8.0% 16.7% 7.3% 35

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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