TheHomeRuns.org — CIN @ CWS

Neutral air · 0.99×

CIN @ CWS

Rate Field · 7:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.99× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Best of game Munetaka Murakami conv 31 · vs Lodolo ⟷ Jj Bleday conv 63 · vs Burke → edge: Munetaka Murakami

ATTACK Nick Lodolo LHP · CIN

leak 64

1.30 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.45 · leakiest side of this game

1 Munetaka Murakami +350 B ●●●●●

2 Andrew Benintendi — C ●●●●○

3 Colson Montgomery +425 C+ ●●●○○

FADE Sean Burke RHP · CWS

leak 56

1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.15 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jj Bleday +425 C ●●●●●

2 Sal Stewart +390 C ●●●●●

3 Tyler Stephenson +500 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Munetaka Murakami: 20.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CIN Jj Bleday vs Burke Edge +425 0.235 · 88.7 · 9.1% 100.0% 26.9% F B O C 53

· CIN Sal Stewart vs Burke +390 0.220 · 90.4 · 10.3% 38.5% 24.8% F B O C 57

· CWS Munetaka Murakami ✶ vs Lodolo +350 0.302 · 94.1 · 12.7% 33.3% 29.4% F B O B 70

· CWS Andrew Benintendi vs Lodolo — 0.183 · 88.8 · 8.3% 28.6% 18.2% F B O C 51

· CWS Colson Montgomery vs Lodolo +425 0.229 · 88.9 · 9.8% 16.7% 26.4% F B O C+ 60

· CWS Miguel Vargas COOL vs Lodolo Edge +370 0.232 · 90.6 · 10.4% 16.7% 21.8% F B O C+ 60

· CIN Elly De La Cruz COOL vs Burke Edge +400 0.226 · 93.7 · 10.4% 15.4% 17.2% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· CIN Tyler Stephenson vs Burke +500 0.163 · 91.2 · 9.8% 20.0% 17.5% F B O D 46

· CWS Chase Meidroth vs Lodolo Edge +750 0.130 · 87.8 · 6.0% 18.2% 15.5% F B O D 42

· CIN Eugenio Suarez vs Burke +400 0.199 · 88.6 · 9.5% 0.0% 23.4% F B O D 44

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs Lodolo — 0.128 · 87.6 · 6.9% 12.5% 6.1% F B O D 41

· CWS Braden Montgomery vs Lodolo Edge +850 0.145 · 89.2 · 5.4% 9.1% 9.0% F B O D 40

· CIN Matt Mclain vs Burke +700 0.151 · 88.0 · 8.7% 0.0% 14.3% F B O D 40

· CWS Edgar Quero COOL vs Lodolo Edge +750 0.040 · 90.5 · 4.0% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 31

· CIN Tj Friedl COOL vs Burke Edge — 0.082 · 87.5 · 4.4% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 29

· CWS Tristan Peters COOL vs Lodolo — 0.148 · 87.0 · 6.0% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 40

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 60.6% ← leak BRK 36.8% OFF 2.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Sal Stewart R

17.1% 9.6% 10.0% 13.7% C 57 +390

Elly De La Cruz S Edge

18.3% 10.3% 5.3% 13.8% C 55 +400

Jj Bleday L Edge

13.4% 7.4% 5.7% 10.3% C 53 +425

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Tyler Stephenson R

16.1% 6.6% 5.9% 12.4% D 46 +500

Eugenio Suarez R

14.3% 5.3% 6.2% 11.7% D 44 +400

128

Matt Mclain R

11.6% 9.5% 0.0% 9.8% D 40 +700

187

Tj Friedl L Edge

2.8% 4.0% 0.0% 2.5% D 29 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (60.6% usage) carries Burke's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 52.3% ← leak BRK 24.0% OFF 23.7% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Munetaka Murakami L

22.2% 18.0% 18.2% 20.2% B 70 +350

Neutral · 3

Colson Montgomery L

12.5% 11.9% 13.2% 12.5% C+ 60 +425

Miguel Vargas R Edge

15.5% 12.1% 12.1% 14.2% C+ 60 +370

Andrew Benintendi L

12.8% 4.6% 5.7% 8.9% C 51 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

107

Chase Meidroth R Edge

4.3% 6.1% 4.1% 4.8% D 42 +750

124

Sam Antonacci L

8.0% 5.3% 0.0% 6.1% D 41 —

131

Braden Montgomery S Edge

4.3% 4.0% 2.5% 3.7% D 40 +850

134

Tristan Peters L

5.7% 5.4% 0.0% 4.8% D 40 —

179

Edgar Quero S Edge

2.2% 0.0% 3.0% 2.1% D 31 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.3% usage) carries Lodolo's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Stewart Cruz Bleday Stephenson Murakami Montgomery Vargas Benintendi Meidroth

Legend

attack side — vs Lodolo fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Jj Bleday +425 · 53

Sal Stewart +390 · 57

Munetaka Murakami +350 · 70

Andrew Benintendi — · 51

Stadium conditions

Rate Field

First pitch 7:40p · roof unknown

Park 0.99× Wind unknown — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Neutral · Combined 0.99× Unknown stadium — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Sean Burke · RHP 1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.15 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Sal Stewart 57 C +390 · 24 0.220 90.4 10.3% 24.4%vs RHP 395 16.7% 38.5% 24.8% 32

2 Elly De La Cruz 55 C +400 COOL 29 0.226 93.7 10.4% 21.8%vs RHP 396 17.5% 15.4% 17.2% 35

3 Jj Bleday 53 C +425 WARM 32 0.235 88.7 9.1% 24.6%vs RHP 388 20.0% 100.0% 26.9% 27

4 Tyler Stephenson 46 D +500 WARM 74 0.163 91.2 9.8% 20.4%vs RHP 392 8.8% 20.0% 17.5% 21

5 Eugenio Suarez 44 D +400 WARM 86 0.199 88.6 9.5% 28.6%vs RHP 395 0.0% 0.0% 23.4% 18

6 Matt Mclain 40 D +700 WARM 128 0.151 88.0 8.7% 11.1%vs RHP 398 0.0% 0.0% 14.3% 20

7 Tj Friedl 29 D — COOL 187 0.082 87.5 4.4% 7.3%vs RHP 374 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 8

vs Nick Lodolo · LHP 1.30 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.45 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami ✶ 70 B +350 · 3 0.302 94.1 12.7% 29.4%vs LHP 403 19.0% 33.3% 29.4% 26

2 Colson Montgomery 60 C+ +425 · 14 0.229 88.9 9.8% 29.6%vs LHP 399 23.2% 16.7% 26.4% 25

3 Miguel Vargas 60 C+ +370 COOL 17 0.232 90.6 10.4% 25.0%vs LHP 392 20.0% 16.7% 21.8% 32

4 Andrew Benintendi 51 C — · 44 0.183 88.8 8.3% 13.3% 389 14.5% 28.6% 18.2% 23

5 Chase Meidroth 42 D +750 WARM 107 0.130 87.8 6.0% 20.0%vs LHP 381 8.1% 18.2% 15.5% 33

6 Sam Antonacci 41 D — COOL 124 0.128 87.6 6.9% 0.0%vs LHP 390 10.3% 12.5% 6.1% 32

7 Braden Montgomery 40 D +850 · 131 0.145 89.2 5.4% 11.1%vs LHP 383 6.7% 9.1% 9.0% 24

8 Tristan Peters 40 D — COOL 134 0.148 87.0 6.0% 0.0%vs LHP 377 7.3% 0.0% 6.9% 21

9 Edgar Quero 31 D +750 COOL 179 0.040 90.5 4.0% 9.5%vs LHP 389 4.0% 0.0% 8.0% 15

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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