TheHomeRuns.org — SEA @ NYY

Yankee Stadium is live · 1.26×

SEA @ NYY

Yankee Stadium · 7:05p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 9 mph slight_out 79°F Roof open

Hourly window

+9 ↑

7:05p

+8 ↑

8:05p

+7 ↑

9:05p

+6 ↑

10:05p

+5 ↑

11:05p

best window is early — 7:05p at +9

Best of game Julio Rodríguez conv 24 · vs Weathers ⟷ Trent Grisham conv 15 · vs Woo → edge: Ben Rice

ATTACK Ryan Weathers LHP · NYY

leak 78

1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.69 · leakiest side of this game

1 Julio Rodríguez +390 C ●●●●○

2 Cal Raleigh +290 D ●●●○○

3 Dominic Canzone +390 C ●●○○○

FADE Bryan Woo RHP · SEA

leak 47

0.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.37 · stingy — thin edge

1 Trent Grisham +320 D ●●○○○

2 Ben Rice +280 C+ ●●○○○

3 Austin Wells +425 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ben Rice: 15.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 8.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SEA Julio Rodríguez vs Weathers Edge +390 0.165 · 89.9 · 8.7% 25.0% 23.6% F B O C 52

· SEA Dominic Canzone vs Weathers +390 0.238 · 91.7 · 10.7% 8.3% 23.6% F B O C 58

· NYY Ben Rice ✶ vs Woo Edge +280 0.287 · 92.0 · 10.4% 8.3% 18.4% F B O C+ 62

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· SEA Cal Raleigh HOT vs Weathers Edge +290 0.141 · 88.9 · 10.6% 18.2% 18.9% F B O D 49

· NYY Trent Grisham COOL vs Woo Edge +320 0.178 · 90.6 · 8.5% 16.7% 13.6% F B O D 48

· SEA Randy Arozarena vs Weathers Edge +425 0.165 · 91.0 · 8.3% 8.3% 12.6% F B O D 47

· SEA Colt Emerson vs Weathers +750 0.149 · 86.8 · 6.6% 8.3% 10.9% F B O D 42

· SEA Josh Naylor vs Weathers +625 0.108 · 87.8 · 6.4% 9.1% 10.1% F B O D 38

· SEA Cole Young COOL vs Weathers +750 0.143 · 88.9 · 6.6% 8.3% 9.2% F B O D 42

· NYY Austin Wells vs Woo Edge +425 0.124 · 89.4 · 7.1% 9.1% 8.3% F B O D 40

· NYY Jose Caballero vs Woo — 0.149 · 83.9 · 5.4% 0.0% 16.6% F B O D 36

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt COOL vs Woo — 0.203 · 86.6 · 8.5% 0.0% 12.8% F B O D 48

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon vs Woo Edge +425 0.160 · 91.3 · 8.5% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 44

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 42.6% ← leak BRK 32.4% OFF 24.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Dominic Canzone L

16.5% 13.6% 7.9% 13.7% C 58 +390

Julio Rodríguez R Edge

9.0% 8.2% 9.5% 8.8% C 52 +390

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Cal Raleigh S Edge

11.2% 14.9% 14.6% 12.8% D 49 +290

Randy Arozarena R Edge

8.5% 7.7% 7.7% 8.1% D 47 +425

110

Colt Emerson L

5.6% 4.9% 3.8% 5.1% D 42 +750

112

Cole Young L

4.4% 9.1% 1.9% 5.1% D 42 +750

142

Josh Naylor L

4.4% 8.5% 1.7% 4.9% D 38 +625

Read the columns: the fastball family (42.6% usage) carries Weathers's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 65.1% ← leak BRK 28.4% OFF 6.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Ben Rice L Edge

18.5% 12.5% 13.5% 15.8% C+ 62 +280

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Trent Grisham L Edge

11.8% 8.2% 5.3% 10.2% D 48 +320

Paul Goldschmidt R

13.9% 4.5% 9.1% 10.4% D 48 —

Ryan Mcmahon L Edge

13.0% 4.4% 12.0% 10.6% D 44 +425

132

Austin Wells L Edge

9.7% 5.9% 0.0% 7.4% D 40 +425

155

Jose Caballero R

— — — — D 36 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (65.1% usage) carries Woo's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Canzone Rodríguez Raleigh Rice Grisham

Legend

attack side — vs Weathers fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Julio Rodríguez +390 · 52

Stadium conditions

Yankee Stadium

First pitch 7:05p · roof open

Park 1.05× Wind 9 mph slight_out 79°F open

↑

9 mph · slight_out

79°F

7:05p · peak

↑

8 mph · slight_out

78°F

8:05p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

76°F

9:05p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

75°F

10:05p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

73°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.26× 79°F, wind 9 mph WNW (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Ryan Weathers · LHP 1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.69 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dominic Canzone 58 C +390 · 19 0.238 91.7 10.7% 40.0%vs LHP 403 16.0% 8.3% 23.6% 35

2 Julio Rodríguez 52 C +390 · 39 0.165 89.9 8.7% 25.7%vs LHP 406 16.9% 25.0% 23.6% 34

3 Cal Raleigh 49 D +290 HOT 60 0.141 88.9 10.6% 20.0%vs LHP 395 12.9% 18.2% 18.9% 23

4 Randy Arozarena 47 D +425 · 68 0.165 91.0 8.3% 16.7%vs LHP 391 12.1% 8.3% 12.6% 38

5 Colt Emerson 42 D +750 WARM 110 0.149 86.8 6.6% 23.1%vs LHP 376 9.8% 8.3% 10.9% 23

6 Cole Young 42 D +750 COOL 112 0.143 88.9 6.6% 12.9%vs LHP 387 11.4% 8.3% 9.2% 41

7 Josh Naylor 38 D +625 · 142 0.108 87.8 6.4% 11.5%vs LHP 392 7.2% 9.1% 10.1% 33

vs Bryan Woo · RHP 0.92 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.37 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 62 C+ +280 · 9 0.287 92.0 10.4% 31.5%vs RHP 391 25.2% 8.3% 18.4% 26

2 Trent Grisham 48 D +320 COOL 62 0.178 90.6 8.5% 17.0%vs RHP 388 12.0% 16.7% 13.6% 34

3 Paul Goldschmidt 48 D — COOL 63 0.203 86.6 8.5% 18.4%vs RHP 390 15.9% 0.0% 12.8% 21

4 Ryan Mcmahon 44 D +425 · 88 0.160 91.3 8.5% 21.3%vs RHP 387 16.7% 0.0% 10.8% 22

5 Austin Wells 40 D +425 WARM 132 0.124 89.4 7.1% 15.4%vs RHP 387 9.9% 9.1% 8.3% 20

6 Jose Caballero 36 D — WARM 155 0.149 83.9 5.4% 22.2%vs RHP 383 0.0% 0.0% 16.6% 14

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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