TheHomeRuns.org — MIL @ SD

Suppressed air · 0.99×

MIL @ SD

Petco Park · 9:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.90× Wind 8 mph cross 79°F Roof open

Hourly window

-3 ↑

6:40p

-3 ↑

7:40p

-4 ↑

8:40p

-4 ↑

9:40p

-5 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at -3

Best of game Jackson Merrill conv 17 · vs Harrison ⟷ Jackson Chourio conv 28 · vs Buehler → edge: Jackson Chourio

ATTACK Kyle Harrison LHP · MIL

leak 83

1.03 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.08 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jackson Merrill +575 D ●●●○○

2 Gavin Sheets — D ●○○○○

3 Ty France +500 D ●○○○○

FADE Walker Buehler RHP · SD

leak 78

1.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.31 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jackson Chourio +425 C ●●●●○

2 Jake Bauers +390 C ●●●●○

3 Brice Turang +700 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jackson Chourio: Match 23.6% · 14D pace 33.3% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIL Jackson Chourio ✶ vs Buehler +425 0.204 · 92.2 · 10.9% 33.3% 23.6% F B O C 58

· MIL Jake Bauers vs Buehler Edge +390 0.235 · 92.8 · 10.9% 27.3% 27.4% F B O C 58

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· SD Jackson Merrill vs Harrison +575 0.168 · 90.3 · 8.7% 23.1% 11.7% F B O D 42

· MIL Brice Turang COOL vs Buehler Edge +700 0.184 · 90.6 · 8.2% 8.3% 11.8% F B O D 44

· MIL William Contreras COOL vs Buehler +525 0.124 · 89.8 · 7.8% 10.0% 8.7% F B O D 37

· SD Gavin Sheets vs Harrison — 0.182 · 87.5 · 6.8% 7.7% 8.1% F B O D 37

· SD Ty France COOL vs Harrison Edge +500 0.226 · 92.2 · 8.4% 0.0% 13.7% F B O D 44

· SD Manny Machado vs Harrison Edge +400 0.207 · 90.8 · 8.4% 0.0% 12.1% F B O D 44

· MIL Joey Ortiz COOL vs Buehler — 0.116 · 87.9 · 5.7% 0.0% 10.1% F B O D 32

· MIL Garrett Mitchell COOL vs Buehler Edge +575 0.157 · 92.9 · 10.5% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 42

· MIL Christian Yelich COOL vs Buehler Edge +750 0.136 · 88.7 · 8.8% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 37

· SD Xander Bogaerts vs Harrison Edge +750 0.097 · 88.4 · 5.9% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 27

· SD Jake Cronenworth COOL vs Harrison — 0.067 · 87.5 · 5.2% 0.0% 4.9% F B O D 23

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 61.8% BRK 27.8% OFF 10.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jake Bauers L Edge

14.4% 13.4% 14.7% 14.2% C 58 +390

Jackson Chourio R

14.5% 15.4% 3.4% 13.5% C 58 +425

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Brice Turang L Edge

9.7% 8.8% 1.7% 7.9% D 44 +700

111

Garrett Mitchell L Edge

16.1% 10.9% 6.7% 13.3% D 42 +575

146

William Contreras R

8.0% 8.1% 0.0% 7.3% D 37 +525

151

Christian Yelich L Edge

8.1% 10.0% 12.5% 9.1% D 37 +750

166

Joey Ortiz R

3.3% 5.9% 0.0% 3.9% D 32 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Buehler's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 60.0% ← leak BRK 30.1% OFF 9.9% Overall Score

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Ty France R Edge

11.2% 11.4% 6.9% 10.7% D 44 +500

Manny Machado R Edge

12.9% 6.6% 9.5% 10.7% D 44 +400

108

Jackson Merrill L

14.1% 11.3% 5.6% 11.5% D 42 +575

148

Gavin Sheets L

10.3% 4.2% 1.7% 7.1% D 37 —

193

Xander Bogaerts R Edge

7.0% 2.4% 3.4% 5.4% D 27 +750

203

Jake Cronenworth L

4.6% 2.9% 3.6% 4.1% D 23 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (60.0% usage) carries Harrison's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Bauers Chourio Merrill

Legend

attack side — vs Harrison fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Jackson Chourio +425 · 58

Jake Bauers +390 · 58

Stadium conditions

Petco Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.90× Wind 8 mph cross 79°F open

-3

↑

8 mph · cross

79°F

6:40p · peak

-3

↑

7 mph · cross

76°F

7:40p

-4

↑

6 mph · cross

74°F

8:40p

-4

↑

6 mph · cross

74°F

9:40p

-5

↑

5 mph · cross

73°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.99× 79°F, wind 8 mph W (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Walker Buehler · RHP 1.18 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.31 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers 58 C +390 · 18 0.235 92.8 10.9% 33.3%vs RHP 401 20.4% 27.3% 27.4% 23

2 Jackson Chourio ✶ 58 C +425 WARM 21 0.204 92.2 10.9% 20.3%vs RHP 401 17.9% 33.3% 23.6% 34

3 Brice Turang 44 D +700 COOL 93 0.184 90.6 8.2% 26.2%vs RHP 407 11.4% 8.3% 11.8% 35

4 Garrett Mitchell 42 D +575 COOL 111 0.157 92.9 10.5% 24.2%vs RHP 415 7.4% 0.0% 9.9% 27

5 William Contreras 37 D +525 COOL 146 0.124 89.8 7.8% 17.1%vs RHP 417 9.4% 10.0% 8.7% 33

6 Christian Yelich 37 D +750 COOL 151 0.136 88.7 8.8% 14.3%vs RHP 404 6.4% 0.0% 7.6% 27

7 Joey Ortiz 32 D — COOL 166 0.116 87.9 5.7% 12.1%vs RHP 395 5.3% 0.0% 10.1% 7

vs Kyle Harrison · LHP 1.03 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.08 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ty France 44 D +500 COOL 89 0.226 92.2 8.4% 18.8%vs LHP 394 15.9% 0.0% 13.7% 37

2 Manny Machado 44 D +400 WARM 91 0.207 90.8 8.4% 16.0%vs LHP 397 18.6% 0.0% 12.1% 34

3 Jackson Merrill 42 D +575 WARM 108 0.168 90.3 8.7% 12.0%vs LHP 411 15.3% 23.1% 11.7% 41

4 Gavin Sheets 37 D — WARM 148 0.182 87.5 6.8% 0.0%vs LHP 397 10.6% 7.7% 8.1% 17

5 Xander Bogaerts 27 D +750 WARM 193 0.097 88.4 5.9% 5.6%vs LHP 396 7.3% 0.0% 6.5% 34

6 Jake Cronenworth 23 D — COOL 203 0.067 87.5 5.2% 0.0%vs LHP 389 1.4% 0.0% 4.9% 39

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

10 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.