TheHomeRuns.org — CLE @ DET

Suppressed air · 0.96×

CLE @ DET

Comerica Park · 6:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.96× Wind 5 mph cross 76°F Roof open

Hourly window

-4 ↑

6:40p

-2 ↑

7:40p

+0 ↑

8:40p

+1 ↑

9:40p

+2 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 10:40p window peaks +2

Best of game Rhys Hoskins conv 30 · vs Anderson ⟷ Dillon Dingler conv 33 · vs Bibee → edge: Dillon Dingler

ATTACK Drew Anderson RHP · DET

leak 97

1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.37 · leakiest side of this game

1 Rhys Hoskins — C ●●●●●

2 Steven Kwan — D ●○○○○

3 Angel Martinez — D ●○○○○

FADE Tanner Bibee RHP · CLE

leak 56

1.52 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.49 · stingy — thin edge

1 Dillon Dingler +400 C+ ●●●●●

2 Kevin Mcgonigle +525 D ●●●●○

3 Gleyber Torres +700 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Dillon Dingler: 11.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 36.4% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· DET Dillon Dingler ✶ COOL vs Bibee +400 0.253 · 89.0 · 9.9% 36.4% 29.3% F B O C+ 62

· CLE Rhys Hoskins HOT vs Anderson — 0.204 · 89.2 · 10.1% 33.3% 26.4% F B O C 53

· DET Riley Greene COOL vs Bibee Edge +390 0.177 · 90.5 · 11.3% 10.0% 12.4% F B O C 51

· DET Spencer Torkelson COOL vs Bibee +400 0.195 · 89.5 · 10.7% 9.1% 12.6% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle COOL vs Bibee Edge +525 0.141 · 87.8 · 7.7% 40.0% 12.3% F B O D 44

· DET Gleyber Torres COOL vs Bibee +700 0.128 · 86.0 · 8.0% 27.3% 12.7% F B O D 43

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Anderson Edge — 0.063 · 83.6 · 1.5% 9.1% 6.3% F B O D 22

· CLE Angel Martinez vs Anderson Edge — 0.194 · 87.9 · 8.2% 0.0% 13.1% F B O D 41

· CLE Chase Delauter COOL vs Anderson Edge +525 0.156 · 91.2 · 7.0% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 39

· DET Colt Keith COOL vs Bibee Edge +700 0.148 · 88.6 · 7.9% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 41

· CLE Travis Bazzana vs Anderson Edge +700 0.145 · 88.4 · 6.0% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 37

· CLE Jose Ramirez COOL vs Anderson Edge +475 0.150 · 89.3 · 6.5% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 35

· DET Zach Mckinstry vs Bibee Edge +950 0.109 · 85.6 · 4.7% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 32

· CLE Brayan Rocchio vs Anderson Edge +850 0.118 · 86.4 · 5.2% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 40.6% OFF 30.7% BRK 27.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Rhys Hoskins R

11.4% 13.3% 17.5% 13.1% C 53 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

118

Angel Martinez S Edge

8.9% 3.3% 14.9% 8.6% D 41 —

138

Chase Delauter L Edge

8.3% 1.6% 5.8% 6.3% D 39 +525

153

Travis Bazzana L Edge

4.5% 3.6% 3.6% 4.2% D 37 +700

159

Jose Ramirez S Edge

— — — — D 35 +475

173

Brayan Rocchio S Edge

4.2% 1.1% 4.5% 3.5% D 32 +850

205

Steven Kwan L Edge

0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% D 22 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Anderson's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 6 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 70.2% ← leak BRK 15.5% OFF 14.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Dillon Dingler R

13.2% 9.5% 7.0% 11.5% C+ 62 +400

Spencer Torkelson R

13.9% 11.9% 13.6% 13.4% C 52 +400

Riley Greene L Edge

15.6% 16.9% 9.1% 14.7% C 51 +390

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

100

Kevin Mcgonigle L Edge

8.2% 6.9% 1.7% 6.9% D 44 +525

104

Gleyber Torres R

9.6% 4.5% 0.0% 7.5% D 43 +700

125

Colt Keith L Edge

6.8% 14.0% 3.4% 7.3% D 41 +700

172

Zach Mckinstry L Edge

3.5% 1.7% 0.0% 2.6% D 32 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (70.2% usage) carries Bibee's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Hoskins Dingler Mcgonigle Torres

Legend

attack side — vs Anderson fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Dillon Dingler +400 · 62

Rhys Hoskins — · 53

Stadium conditions

Comerica Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.96× Wind 5 mph cross 76°F open

-4

↑

5 mph · cross

76°F

6:40p

-2

↑

4 mph · cross

74°F

7:40p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

74°F

8:40p

↑

3 mph · slight_out

73°F

9:40p

↑

3 mph · out

73°F

10:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.96× 76°F, wind 5 mph SSW (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Drew Anderson · RHP 1.21 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.37 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rhys Hoskins 53 C — HOT 36 0.204 89.2 10.1% 22.6%vs RHP 389 14.8% 33.3% 26.4% 12

2 Angel Martinez 41 D — WARM 118 0.194 87.9 8.2% 27.8%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 13.1% 23

3 Chase Delauter 39 D +525 COOL 138 0.156 91.2 7.0% 24.5%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 37

4 Travis Bazzana 37 D +700 WARM 153 0.145 88.4 6.0% 18.4%vs RHP 396 10.8% 0.0% 8.8% 26

5 Jose Ramirez 35 D +475 COOL 159 0.150 89.3 6.5% 10.8%vs RHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 8.2% 36

6 Brayan Rocchio 32 D +850 WARM 173 0.118 86.4 5.2% 11.5%vs RHP 386 7.1% 0.0% 7.2% 38

7 Steven Kwan 22 D — COOL 205 0.063 83.6 1.5% 3.2%vs RHP 372 1.9% 9.1% 6.3% 38

vs Tanner Bibee · RHP 1.52 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.49 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dillon Dingler ✶ 62 C+ +400 COOL 10 0.253 89.0 9.9% 33.3%vs RHP 398 21.1% 36.4% 29.3% 39

2 Spencer Torkelson 52 C +400 COOL 42 0.195 89.5 10.7% 23.9%vs RHP 394 15.8% 9.1% 12.6% 39

3 Riley Greene 51 C +390 COOL 48 0.177 90.5 11.3% 17.7%vs RHP 399 12.2% 10.0% 12.4% 24

4 Kevin Mcgonigle 44 D +525 COOL 100 0.141 87.8 7.7% 9.1%vs RHP 396 20.0% 40.0% 12.3% 43

5 Gleyber Torres 43 D +700 COOL 104 0.128 86.0 8.0% 16.2%vs RHP 389 9.7% 27.3% 12.7% 37

6 Colt Keith 41 D +700 COOL 125 0.148 88.6 7.9% 12.3%vs RHP 389 6.1% 0.0% 9.6% 24

7 Zach Mckinstry 32 D +950 WARM 172 0.109 85.6 4.7% 6.7%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 32

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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