TheHomeRuns.org — NYM @ ATL

Truist Park is live · 1.28×

NYM @ ATL

Truist Park · 7:15p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.07× Wind 9 mph slight_out 80°F Roof open

Hourly window

+8 ↑

7:15p

+8 ↑

8:15p

+7 ↑

9:15p

+7 ↑

10:15p

+6 ↑

11:15p

best window is early — 7:15p at +8

Best of game Matt Olson conv 48 · vs McLean ⟷ Francisco Lindor conv 16 · vs Pérez → edge: Matt Olson

ATTACK Nolan McLean RHP · NYM

leak 82

0.97 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.26 · leakiest side of this game

1 Matt Olson +330 B ●●●●●

2 Mike Yastrzemski +575 D ●●●○○

3 Austin Riley +525 D ●●●○○

FADE Martín Pérez LHP · ATL

leak 78

0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.26 · stingy — thin edge

1 Francisco Lindor +390 C ●●○○○

2 Marcus Semien +575 D ●●○○○

3 Carson Benge +750 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Matt Olson: 15.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 61.5% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATL Matt Olson ✶ vs McLean Edge +330 0.286 · 92.7 · 10.5% 61.5% 35.0% F B O B 72

· NYM Francisco Lindor vs Pérez Edge +390 0.184 · 91.6 · 7.5% 15.4% 17.0% F B O C 50

· ATL Drake Baldwin COOL vs McLean Edge +425 0.180 · 91.6 · 9.8% 0.0% 14.3% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski HOT vs McLean Edge +575 0.155 · 90.5 · 7.3% 22.2% 18.5% F B O D 46

· ATL Austin Riley HOT vs McLean +525 0.145 · 90.9 · 9.0% 16.7% 17.7% F B O D 47

· ATL Dominic Smith vs McLean Edge — 0.131 · 87.8 · 6.3% 16.7% 15.2% F B O D 41

· NYM Marcus Semien COOL vs Pérez Edge +575 0.148 · 86.6 · 6.7% 18.2% 13.5% F B O D 46

· NYM Carson Benge vs Pérez +750 0.140 · 89.3 · 6.9% 16.7% 11.6% F B O D 45

· ATL Ozzie Albies vs McLean Edge +575 0.173 · 86.8 · 5.5% 8.3% 11.6% F B O D 44

· NYM Brett Baty vs Pérez — 0.107 · 89.8 · 7.2% 10.0% 9.0% F B O D 41

· NYM Bo Bichette COOL vs Pérez Edge +575 0.115 · 89.2 · 6.1% 7.7% 9.4% F B O D 40

· NYM Francisco Alvarez vs Pérez Edge +500 0.188 · 90.1 · 10.3% 0.0% 14.3% F B O D 48

· NYM A.J. Ewing vs Pérez +850 0.135 · — · 6.9% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 38

· ATL Mauricio Dubon vs McLean — 0.136 · 86.8 · 5.4% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 35

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 62.2% ← leak OFF 30.2% BRK 7.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Francisco Lindor S Edge

10.9% 7.3% 6.5% 9.3% C 50 +390

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Francisco Alvarez R Edge

17.8% 14.3% 15.9% 16.7% D 48 +500

Marcus Semien R Edge

10.2% 7.4% 2.2% 7.3% D 46 +575

Carson Benge L

7.5% 5.5% 9.9% 7.8% D 45 +750

122

Brett Baty L

8.3% 4.1% 12.0% 8.2% D 41 —

130

Bo Bichette R Edge

4.6% 0.0% 10.7% 6.1% D 40 +575

139

A.J. Ewing L

8.4% 2.7% 9.6% 7.7% D 38 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (62.2% usage) carries Pérez's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 63.1% ← leak BRK 30.3% OFF 6.5% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Matt Olson L Edge

17.4% 11.9% 12.8% 15.2% B 72 +330

Neutral · 1

Drake Baldwin L Edge

14.2% 19.2% 4.5% 14.0% C 51 +425

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Austin Riley R

13.2% 11.1% 5.6% 11.6% D 47 +525

Mike Yastrzemski L Edge

8.1% 7.8% 6.7% 7.8% D 46 +575

Ozzie Albies S Edge

6.6% 1.8% 3.0% 4.4% D 44 +575

119

Dominic Smith L Edge

5.9% 7.5% 2.6% 5.7% D 41 —

158

Mauricio Dubon R

3.0% 5.9% 5.0% 4.1% D 35 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (63.1% usage) carries McLean's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Lindor Semien Benge Olson Riley Yastrzemski Smith

Legend

attack side — vs McLean fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Matt Olson +330 · 72

Mike Yastrzemski +575 · 46

Stadium conditions

Truist Park

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 1.07× Wind 9 mph slight_out 80°F open

↑

9 mph · slight_out

80°F

7:15p · peak

↑

8 mph · slight_out

77°F

8:15p

↑

7 mph · slight_out

77°F

9:15p

↑

6 mph · out

76°F

10:15p

↑

5 mph · out

76°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.28× 80°F, wind 9 mph W (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Martín Pérez · LHP 0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.26 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Francisco Lindor 50 C +390 · 50 0.184 91.6 7.5% 16.7%vs LHP 393 11.7% 15.4% 17.0% 30

2 Francisco Alvarez 48 D +500 WARM 61 0.188 90.1 10.3% 20.0%vs LHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 14.3% 19

3 Marcus Semien 46 D +575 COOL 77 0.148 86.6 6.7% 13.0%vs LHP 391 12.5% 18.2% 13.5% 29

4 Carson Benge 45 D +750 · 84 0.140 89.3 6.9% 15.8%vs LHP 401 9.7% 16.7% 11.6% 35

5 Brett Baty 41 D — WARM 122 0.107 89.8 7.2% 0.0%vs LHP 396 6.5% 10.0% 9.0% 16

6 Bo Bichette 40 D +575 COOL 130 0.115 89.2 6.1% 20.0%vs LHP 388 8.7% 7.7% 9.4% 39

7 A.J. Ewing 38 D +850 WARM 139 0.135 — 6.9% 16.7%vs LHP — 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 36

vs Nolan McLean · RHP 0.97 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.26 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson ✶ 72 B +330 WARM 2 0.286 92.7 10.5% 34.3%vs RHP 407 25.2% 61.5% 35.0% 30

2 Drake Baldwin 51 C +425 COOL 46 0.180 91.6 9.8% 27.7%vs RHP 403 17.3% 0.0% 14.3% 39

3 Austin Riley 47 D +525 HOT 67 0.145 90.9 9.0% 18.5%vs RHP 405 9.4% 16.7% 17.7% 20

4 Mike Yastrzemski 46 D +575 HOT 73 0.155 90.5 7.3% 17.5%vs RHP 392 9.3% 22.2% 18.5% 17

5 Ozzie Albies 44 D +575 · 94 0.173 86.8 5.5% 13.4%vs RHP 386 14.4% 8.3% 11.6% 35

6 Dominic Smith 41 D — WARM 119 0.131 87.8 6.3% 15.4%vs RHP 392 8.3% 16.7% 15.2% 10

7 Mauricio Dubon 35 D — WARM 158 0.136 86.8 5.4% 11.5%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 34

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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