TheHomeRuns.org — PHI @ STL

Playable air · 1.08×

PHI @ STL

Busch Stadium · 7:45p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.83× Wind 6 mph out 92°F Roof open

Hourly window

+3 ↑

6:45p

+3 ↑

7:45p

+2 ↑

8:45p

+1 ↑

9:45p

+0 ↑

10:45p

best window is early — 6:45p at +3

Best of game Alec Burleson conv 16 · vs Sánchez ⟷ Bryce Harper conv 26 · vs Pallante → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Cristopher Sánchez LHP · PHI

leak 89

0.79 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.26 · leakiest side of this game

1 Alec Burleson +850 D ●●○○○

2 Jordan Walker +425 D ●●○○○

3 Nathan Church — D ●○○○○

FADE Andre Pallante RHP · STL

leak 75

0.73 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.05 · stingy — thin edge

1 Bryce Harper +475 C ●●●●○

2 Kyle Schwarber +280 C ●●●○○

3 Trea Turner +625 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: 17.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 10.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PHI Bryce Harper vs Pallante Edge +475 0.246 · 90.2 · 8.2% 25.0% 26.9% F B O C 52

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ COOL vs Pallante Edge +280 0.287 · 93.1 · 10.0% 10.0% 28.5% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· PHI Trea Turner COOL vs Pallante +625 0.152 · 88.5 · 6.1% 25.0% 10.5% F B O D 37

· STL Alec Burleson vs Sánchez +850 0.195 · 91.8 · 9.6% 18.2% 13.3% F B O D 43

· STL Jordan Walker COOL vs Sánchez Edge +425 0.207 · 92.7 · 10.2% 9.1% 14.7% F B O D 45

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Sánchez — 0.125 · 86.1 · 7.4% 8.3% 6.0% F B O D 30

· PHI Brandon Marsh COOL vs Pallante Edge +700 0.165 · 89.7 · 7.0% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 36

· STL Ivan Herrera vs Sánchez Edge +750 0.141 · 89.5 · 6.7% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 28

· PHI Bryson Stott vs Pallante Edge +750 0.156 · 89.7 · 6.1% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 33

· STL José Fermín vs Sánchez Edge — 0.119 · 86.8 · 4.0% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 24

· PHI J.T. Realmuto vs Pallante +750 0.130 · — · 5.2% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 25

· PHI Alec Bohm COOL vs Pallante +750 0.132 · 90.5 · 5.4% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 31

· STL Jj Wetherholt COOL vs Sánchez +950 0.138 · 89.7 · 7.6% 0.0% 5.8% F B O D 31

· PHI Justin Crawford vs Pallante Edge — 0.088 · 87.0 · 2.9% 0.0% 5.8% F B O D 21

· STL Masyn Winn vs Sánchez Edge +850 0.081 · 88.2 · 5.0% 0.0% 5.6% F B O D 21

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 49.9% ← leak BRK 47.3% OFF 2.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Kyle Schwarber L Edge

16.3% 15.4% 28.6% 17.4% C 57 +280

Bryce Harper L Edge

11.5% 14.8% 6.2% 11.6% C 52 +475

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

145

Trea Turner R

8.3% 4.8% 2.5% 6.5% D 37 +625

156

Brandon Marsh L Edge

7.4% 13.8% 2.1% 8.4% D 36 +700

164

Bryson Stott L Edge

8.4% 4.2% 5.1% 6.5% D 33 +750

181

Alec Bohm R

4.5% 4.9% 8.8% 5.0% D 31 +750

199

J.T. Realmuto R

3.9% 7.3% 5.0% 4.8% D 25 +750

206

Justin Crawford L Edge

2.2% 1.3% 0.0% 1.5% D 21 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (49.9% usage) carries Pallante's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 43.1% ← leak OFF 37.5% BRK 19.4% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Jordan Walker R Edge

13.6% 17.1% 11.8% 13.4% D 45 +425

102

Alec Burleson L

12.2% 10.1% 11.9% 11.7% D 43 +850

176

Jj Wetherholt L

10.2% 2.0% 4.3% 7.5% D 31 +950

185

Nathan Church L

8.6% 5.0% 6.5% 7.0% D 30 —

188

Ivan Herrera R Edge

5.9% 6.7% 5.0% 5.7% D 28 +750

201

José Fermín R Edge

2.5% 0.0% 2.3% 2.1% D 24 —

207

Masyn Winn R Edge

3.3% 6.1% 2.1% 3.2% D 21 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (43.1% usage) carries Sánchez's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Schwarber Harper Turner Burleson

Legend

attack side — vs Sánchez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Bryce Harper +475 · 52

Stadium conditions

Busch Stadium

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 0.83× Wind 6 mph out 92°F open

↑

6 mph · out

92°F

6:45p · peak

↑

6 mph · out

90°F

7:45p

↑

5 mph · out

89°F

8:45p

↑

5 mph · out

87°F

9:45p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

85°F

10:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.08× 92°F, wind 6 mph WSW (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Andre Pallante · RHP 0.73 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.05 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 57 C +280 COOL 23 0.287 93.1 10.0% 43.4%vs RHP 404 22.9% 10.0% 28.5% 17

2 Bryce Harper 52 C +475 · 38 0.246 90.2 8.2% 36.2%vs RHP 403 20.2% 25.0% 26.9% 31

3 Trea Turner 37 D +625 COOL 145 0.152 88.5 6.1% 21.5%vs RHP 392 14.3% 25.0% 10.5% 47

4 Brandon Marsh 36 D +700 COOL 156 0.165 89.7 7.0% 19.7%vs RHP 393 12.1% 0.0% 9.1% 40

5 Bryson Stott 33 D +750 WARM 164 0.156 89.7 6.1% 9.3%vs RHP 389 7.3% 0.0% 7.4% 34

6 Alec Bohm 31 D +750 COOL 181 0.132 90.5 5.4% 14.6%vs RHP 396 10.9% 0.0% 6.5% 42

7 J.T. Realmuto 25 D +750 WARM 199 0.130 — 5.2% 18.9%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 6.8% 26

8 Justin Crawford 21 D — WARM 206 0.088 87.0 2.9% 4.7%vs RHP 382 2.4% 0.0% 5.8% 32

vs Cristopher Sánchez · LHP 0.79 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.26 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 45 D +425 COOL 81 0.207 92.7 10.2% 38.9%vs LHP 408 17.1% 9.1% 14.7% 35

2 Alec Burleson 43 D +850 WARM 102 0.195 91.8 9.6% 9.4%vs LHP 404 15.2% 18.2% 13.3% 30

3 Jj Wetherholt 31 D +950 COOL 176 0.138 89.7 7.6% 11.6%vs LHP 391 16.7% 0.0% 5.8% 35

4 Nathan Church 30 D — COOL 185 0.125 86.1 7.4% 18.2%vs LHP 384 8.6% 8.3% 6.0% 35

5 Ivan Herrera 28 D +750 WARM 188 0.141 89.5 6.7% 26.1%vs LHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 41

6 José Fermín 24 D — WARM 201 0.119 86.8 4.0% 13.0%vs LHP 388 6.0% 0.0% 7.0% 32

7 Masyn Winn 21 D +850 · 207 0.081 88.2 5.0% 0.0%vs LHP 390 3.6% 0.0% 5.6% 30

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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