TheHomeRuns.org — KC @ LAD

Dodger Stadium is live · 1.41×

KC @ LAD

Dodger Stadium · 10:10p · 12 ranked batters

Park 1.08× Wind 7 mph out 79°F Roof open

Hourly window

+10 ↑

7:10p

+9 ↑

8:10p

+8 ↑

9:10p

+7 ↑

10:10p

+6 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at +10

Best of game Jac Caglianone conv 27 · vs Proxy ⟷ Shohei Ohtani conv 27 · vs Wacha → edge: Jac Caglianone

ATTACK LAD Bullpen Proxy · LAD

leak 64

1.28 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jac Caglianone +500 C+ ●●●●○

2 Carter Jensen +575 C ●●●○○

3 Michael Massey +750 D ●○○○○

FADE Michael Wacha RHP · KC

leak 26

1.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.18 · stingy — thin edge

1 Shohei Ohtani +198 C+ ●●●●○

2 Max Muncy +280 C+ ●●●○○

3 Andy Pages +400 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jac Caglianone: Match 28.9% · 14D pace 25.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· KC Jac Caglianone ✶ COOL vs Proxy +500 0.216 · 93.0 · 14.5% 25.0% 28.9% F B O C+ 66

· LAD Shohei Ohtani COOL vs Wacha Edge +198 0.250 · 93.3 · 10.5% 25.0% 28.5% F B O C+ 66

· KC Carter Jensen vs Proxy +575 0.191 · 90.6 · 9.9% 18.2% 21.9% F B O C 57

· LAD Max Muncy COOL vs Wacha Edge +280 0.237 · 90.4 · 9.5% 14.3% 23.1% F B O C+ 60

· LAD Andy Pages COOL vs Wacha +400 0.187 · 89.1 · 7.1% 16.7% 15.0% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 7 long shots

· LAD Kyle Tucker COOL vs Wacha Edge +475 0.144 · 89.0 · 6.6% 18.2% 10.5% F B O D 44

· KC Michael Massey COOL vs Proxy +750 0.163 · 89.7 · 5.9% 9.1% 10.4% F B O D 44

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez vs Wacha +400 0.154 · 89.2 · 7.8% 0.0% 19.2% F B O D 44

· LAD Mookie Betts COOL vs Wacha +425 0.158 · 90.5 · 7.0% 0.0% 11.4% F B O D 45

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Wacha Edge +400 0.171 · 89.9 · 7.8% 0.0% 10.7% F B O D 47

· KC Salvador Perez COOL vs Proxy +425 0.156 · 88.8 · 9.7% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 45

· KC Isaac Collins vs Proxy +850 0.128 · 88.5 · 5.5% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 39

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for LAD Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

FB 57.4% ← leak OFF 23.9% BRK 18.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Shohei Ohtani L Edge

20.3% 16.0% 10.4% 16.4% C+ 66 +198

Max Muncy L Edge

14.5% 5.9% 8.6% 11.2% C+ 60 +280

Andy Pages R

7.4% 8.8% 7.9% 7.7% C 51 +400

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Freddie Freeman L Edge

9.4% 8.9% 9.1% 9.2% D 47 +400

Mookie Betts R

8.9% 6.2% 3.2% 7.3% D 45 +425

Teoscar Hernandez R

8.7% 7.1% 12.2% 9.2% D 44 +400

Kyle Tucker L Edge

9.7% 1.4% 3.2% 6.5% D 44 +475

Read the columns: the fastball family (57.4% usage) carries Wacha's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caglianone Jensen Ohtani Muncy Pages Tucker

Legend

attack side — vs Proxy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Jac Caglianone +500 · 66

Shohei Ohtani +198 · 66

Stadium conditions

Dodger Stadium

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 1.08× Wind 7 mph out 79°F open

+10

↑

7 mph · out

79°F

7:10p · peak

↑

6 mph · out

75°F

8:10p

↑

5 mph · out

74°F

9:10p

↑

4 mph · out

72°F

10:10p

↑

4 mph · out

71°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.41× 79°F, wind 7 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs LAD Bullpen Proxy 1.28 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jac Caglianone ✶ 66 C+ +500 COOL 8 0.216 93.0 14.5% 26.3% 418 14.4% 25.0% 28.9% 41

2 Carter Jensen 57 C +575 · 31 0.191 90.6 9.9% 13.6% 394 15.2% 18.2% 21.9% 24

3 Salvador Perez 45 D +425 COOL 115 0.156 88.8 9.7% 12.6% 405 0.0% 0.0% 10.5% 36

4 Michael Massey 44 D +750 COOL 126 0.163 89.7 5.9% 9.4% 401 6.3% 9.1% 10.4% 38

5 Isaac Collins 39 D +850 · 157 0.128 88.5 5.5% 6.5% 394 6.1% 0.0% 8.0% 29

vs Michael Wacha · RHP 1.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.18 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shohei Ohtani 66 C+ +198 COOL 5 0.250 93.3 10.5% 23.8%vs RHP 403 19.5% 25.0% 28.5% 31

2 Max Muncy 60 C+ +280 COOL 16 0.237 90.4 9.5% 25.3%vs RHP 411 18.5% 14.3% 23.1% 29

3 Andy Pages 51 C +400 COOL 45 0.187 89.1 7.1% 20.6%vs RHP 392 13.9% 16.7% 15.0% 38

4 Freddie Freeman 47 D +400 COOL 69 0.171 89.9 7.8% 15.9%vs RHP 398 11.4% 0.0% 10.7% 42

5 Mookie Betts 45 D +425 COOL 85 0.158 90.5 7.0% 17.2%vs RHP 389 9.3% 0.0% 11.4% 40

6 Teoscar Hernandez 44 D +400 · 87 0.154 89.2 7.8% 18.8%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 19.2% 32

7 Kyle Tucker 44 D +475 COOL 97 0.144 89.0 6.6% 12.3%vs RHP 392 8.2% 18.2% 10.5% 33

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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