TheHomeRuns.org — TB @ ATH

Sutter Health Park is live · 1.93×

TB @ ATH

Sutter Health Park · 9:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.21× Wind 13 mph out 85°F Roof open

Hourly window

+19 ↑

6:40p

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7:40p

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best window is early — 6:40p at +19

Best of game Junior Caminero conv 35 · vs Barnett ⟷ Tyler Soderstrom conv 21 · vs Martinez → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Mason Barnett RHP · ATH

leak 95

2.14 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.23 · leakiest side of this game

1 Junior Caminero +225 B ●●●●●

2 Richie Palacios +750 D ●●○○○

3 Cedric Mullins +370 C ●●○○○

FADE Nick Martinez RHP · TB

leak 56

1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.45 · stingy — thin edge

1 Tyler Soderstrom +320 C+ ●●●○○

2 Henry Bolte +575 D ●●○○○

3 Lawrence Butler +390 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: Match 45.3% · 14D pace 25.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TB Junior Caminero ✶ vs Barnett +225 0.266 · 93.0 · 11.2% 25.0% 45.3% F B O B 75

· ATH Tyler Soderstrom vs Martinez Edge +320 0.229 · 90.7 · 8.3% 16.7% 24.6% F B O C+ 60

· TB Cedric Mullins COOL vs Barnett Edge +370 0.151 · 88.0 · 5.8% 10.0% 13.4% F B O C 50

· TB Jonathan Aranda vs Barnett Edge +350 0.150 · 90.8 · 9.5% 9.1% 12.8% F B O C 55

· ATH Jonah Heim vs Martinez Edge +400 0.194 · 87.5 · 7.3% 0.0% 12.4% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· ATH Henry Bolte vs Martinez +575 0.099 · 90.8 · 7.6% 16.7% 12.2% F B O D 46

· ATH Lawrence Butler HOT vs Martinez Edge +390 0.116 · 89.3 · 7.1% 16.7% 11.8% F B O D 45

· TB Richie Palacios vs Barnett Edge +750 0.117 · 86.2 · 6.2% 12.5% 15.4% F B O D 46

· TB Yandy Diaz vs Barnett +425 0.153 · 90.9 · 7.9% 0.0% 13.8% F B O D 49

· ATH Carlos Cortes COOL vs Martinez Edge +425 0.149 · 89.8 · 7.2% 0.0% 13.7% F B O D 46

· TB Nick Fortes COOL vs Barnett — 0.107 · 85.6 · 4.6% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 42

· ATH Jacob Wilson vs Martinez +850 0.124 · 84.1 · 4.4% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 40

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Barnett Edge — 0.059 · 84.0 · — 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 28

· ATH Jeff Mcneil COOL vs Martinez Edge +525 0.078 · 86.2 · 2.8% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 33

· TB Taylor Walls COOL vs Barnett Edge +750 0.065 · 85.4 · 4.7% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 37

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

BRK 49.7% FB 44.9% OFF 5.3% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Junior Caminero R

11.1% 17.0% 7.8% 13.7% B 75 +225

Neutral · 2

Jonathan Aranda L Edge

14.3% 10.3% 5.2% 10.2% C 55 +350

Cedric Mullins L Edge

3.3% 3.0% 8.3% 3.8% C 50 +370

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Yandy Diaz R

10.3% 5.4% 4.4% 6.9% D 49 +425

Richie Palacios L Edge

2.0% 5.5% 3.4% 4.2% D 46 +750

109

Nick Fortes R

1.8% 3.0% 0.0% 2.3% D 42 —

147

Taylor Walls S Edge

0.0% 3.5% 0.0% 2.5% D 37 +750

189

Chandler Simpson L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 28 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Barnett's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 63.2% ← leak OFF 27.4% BRK 9.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Tyler Soderstrom L Edge

9.2% 0.0% 15.6% 9.5% C+ 60 +320

Jonah Heim S Edge

8.1% 9.3% 4.1% 7.3% C 50 +400

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Carlos Cortes L Edge

7.8% 8.5% 4.3% 7.1% D 46 +425

Henry Bolte R

9.3% 4.8% 6.8% 8.0% D 46 +575

Lawrence Butler L Edge

6.8% 4.0% 8.9% 6.6% D 45 +390

137

Jacob Wilson R

4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 2.6% D 40 +850

163

Jeff Mcneil L Edge

0.6% 1.7% 1.8% 1.1% D 33 +525

Read the columns: the fastball family (63.2% usage) carries Martinez's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caminero Palacios Soderstrom Bolte Butler

Legend

attack side — vs Barnett fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Junior Caminero +225 · 75

Stadium conditions

Sutter Health Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.21× Wind 13 mph out 85°F open

+19

↑

13 mph · out

85°F

6:40p · peak

+17

↑

12 mph · out

80°F

7:40p

+17

↑

12 mph · out

76°F

8:40p

+16

↑

11 mph · out

73°F

9:40p

+15

↑

11 mph · out

69°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.93× 85°F, wind 13 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +6 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Mason Barnett · RHP 2.14 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.23 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 75 B +225 WARM 1 0.266 93.0 11.2% 40.6%vs RHP 412 26.3% 25.0% 45.3% 32

2 Jonathan Aranda 55 C +350 · 30 0.150 90.8 9.5% 17.2%vs RHP 386 11.9% 9.1% 12.8% 38

3 Cedric Mullins 50 C +370 COOL 53 0.151 88.0 5.8% 20.3%vs RHP 389 13.0% 10.0% 13.4% 24

4 Yandy Diaz 49 D +425 WARM 58 0.153 90.9 7.9% 20.4%vs RHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 13.8% 38

5 Richie Palacios 46 D +750 WARM 75 0.117 86.2 6.2% 13.9%vs RHP 398 4.8% 12.5% 15.4% 14

6 Nick Fortes 42 D — COOL 109 0.107 85.6 4.6% 14.3%vs RHP 396 4.7% 0.0% 10.9% 14

7 Taylor Walls 37 D +750 COOL 147 0.065 85.4 4.7% 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% 23

8 Chandler Simpson 28 D — COOL 189 0.059 84.0 — 2.9%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 43

vs Nick Martinez · RHP 1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.45 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Tyler Soderstrom 60 C+ +320 WARM 15 0.229 90.7 8.3% 19.6%vs RHP 404 16.5% 16.7% 24.6% 29

2 Jonah Heim 50 C +400 · 54 0.194 87.5 7.3% 6.7%vs RHP 414 10.5% 0.0% 12.4% 37

3 Carlos Cortes 46 D +425 COOL 76 0.149 89.8 7.2% 15.9%vs RHP 403 5.0% 0.0% 13.7% 6

4 Henry Bolte 46 D +575 WARM 78 0.099 90.8 7.6% 5.0%vs RHP 423 10.8% 16.7% 12.2% 27

5 Lawrence Butler 45 D +390 HOT 83 0.116 89.3 7.1% 18.4%vs RHP 407 5.1% 16.7% 11.8% 34

6 Jacob Wilson 40 D +850 · 137 0.124 84.1 4.4% 15.2%vs RHP 386 6.9% 0.0% 9.6% 34

7 Jeff Mcneil 33 D +525 COOL 163 0.078 86.2 2.8% 8.7%vs RHP 377 3.0% 0.0% 8.7% 23

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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