TheHomeRuns.org — COL @ AZ

Chase Field is live · 1.19×

COL @ AZ

Chase Field · 9:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.92× Wind 11 mph cross 100°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-5 ↑

6:40p

-8 ↑

7:40p

-4 ↑

8:40p

+1 ↑

9:40p

+4 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 10:40p window peaks +4

Best of game Nolan Arenado conv 22 · vs Sugano ⟷ Mickey Moniak conv 28 · vs Bratt → edge: Hunter Goodman

ATTACK Tomoyuki Sugano RHP · COL

leak 91

1.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.81 · leakiest side of this game

1 Nolan Arenado +500 C ●●●○○

2 Corbin Carroll +330 C ●●○○○

3 Ketel Marte +350 C ●●○○○

FADE Mitch Bratt LHP · AZ

leak 34

1.32 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.21 · stingy — thin edge

1 Mickey Moniak — C+ ●●●●○

2 Hunter Goodman +330 C+ ●●●●○

3 Willi Castro +575 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Hunter Goodman: 16.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 22.2% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· COL Mickey Moniak vs Bratt — 0.288 · 89.3 · 9.2% 30.0% 26.7% F B O C+ 60

· COL Hunter Goodman ✶ COOL vs Bratt Edge +330 0.292 · 90.5 · 11.0% 22.2% 26.6% F B O C+ 64

· AZ Nolan Arenado vs Sugano +500 0.184 · 85.1 · 9.6% 25.0% 19.1% F B O C 51

· AZ Corbin Carroll vs Sugano Edge +330 0.224 · 91.6 · 12.4% 8.3% 14.1% F B O C 57

· AZ Ketel Marte COOL vs Sugano Edge +350 0.194 · 90.1 · 11.4% 8.3% 11.8% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· COL Willi Castro vs Bratt Edge +575 0.160 · 87.7 · 8.1% 25.0% 13.7% F B O D 45

· COL Jake Mccarthy COOL vs Bratt +750 0.212 · 85.2 · 6.2% 0.0% 20.2% F B O D 45

· AZ Gabriel Moreno COOL vs Sugano +700 0.141 · 89.2 · 9.6% 10.0% 7.9% F B O D 43

· COL Ezequiel Tovar vs Bratt Edge +700 0.124 · 87.4 · 6.8% 10.0% 6.2% F B O D 37

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo vs Sugano Edge +750 0.131 · 87.2 · 6.6% 8.3% 7.6% F B O D 38

· COL Tj Rumfield COOL vs Bratt +750 0.163 · 83.9 · 5.9% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 38

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas HOT vs Sugano Edge — 0.138 · 87.7 · 6.6% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 37

· COL Troy Johnston COOL vs Bratt — 0.107 · 89.6 · 3.8% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 30

· COL Kyle Karros COOL vs Bratt Edge +750 0.152 · 89.7 · 7.4% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 40

· AZ Ryan Waldschmidt COOL vs Sugano +700 0.122 · 88.3 · 10.0% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 40

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 49.6% ← leak BRK 38.1% OFF 8.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Hunter Goodman R Edge

18.7% 14.9% 9.7% 16.3% C+ 64 +330

Mickey Moniak L

9.9% 22.7% 2.2% 11.0% C+ 60 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Jake Mccarthy L

6.5% 1.4% 6.2% 5.2% D 45 +750

Willi Castro S Edge

11.6% 6.1% 5.6% 8.8% D 45 +575

135

Kyle Karros R Edge

7.2% 4.8% 11.5% 7.1% D 40 +750

141

Tj Rumfield L

5.5% 1.9% 5.6% 4.4% D 38 +750

152

Ezequiel Tovar R Edge

5.5% 6.9% 8.0% 6.2% D 37 +700

183

Troy Johnston L

2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 1.9% D 30 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (49.6% usage) carries Bratt's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 51.6% ← leak BRK 26.9% OFF 21.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Corbin Carroll L Edge

10.5% 14.6% 10.4% 11.8% C 57 +330

Ketel Marte S Edge

13.9% 7.1% 3.7% 10.0% C 53 +350

Nolan Arenado R

10.1% 2.1% 6.1% 7.1% C 51 +500

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

103

Gabriel Moreno R

6.6% 7.3% 8.1% 7.0% D 43 +700

136

Ryan Waldschmidt R

9.1% 7.7% 0.0% 7.7% D 40 +700

143

Geraldo Perdomo S Edge

4.2% 1.8% 2.2% 3.3% D 38 +750

150

Ildemaro Vargas S Edge

4.1% 3.1% 1.5% 3.3% D 37 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.6% usage) carries Sugano's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Goodman Moniak Castro Arenado

Legend

attack side — vs Sugano fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Mickey Moniak — · 60

Hunter Goodman +330 · 64

Nolan Arenado +500 · 51

Stadium conditions

Chase Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 0.92× Wind 11 mph cross 100°F retractable

-5

↑

11 mph · cross

100°F

6:40p

-8

↑

10 mph · in

99°F

7:40p

-4

↑

8 mph · cross

97°F

8:40p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

95°F

9:40p

↑

5 mph · out

93°F

10:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.19× 100°F, wind 11 mph WNW (cross) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Mitch Bratt · LHP 1.32 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.21 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman ✶ 64 C+ +330 COOL 6 0.292 90.5 11.0% 32.0%vs LHP 410 24.5% 22.2% 26.6% 22

2 Mickey Moniak 60 C+ — · 13 0.288 89.3 9.2% 18.2%vs LHP 417 18.2% 30.0% 26.7% 30

3 Jake Mccarthy 45 D +750 COOL 80 0.212 85.2 6.2% 30.8%vs LHP 416 13.3% 0.0% 20.2% 47

4 Willi Castro 45 D +575 WARM 82 0.160 87.7 8.1% 12.0%vs LHP 411 11.4% 25.0% 13.7% 25

5 Kyle Karros 40 D +750 COOL 135 0.152 89.7 7.4% 4.3%vs LHP 417 9.9% 0.0% 6.8% 24

6 Tj Rumfield 38 D +750 COOL 141 0.163 83.9 5.9% 8.0%vs LHP 410 6.7% 0.0% 9.1% 37

7 Ezequiel Tovar 37 D +700 · 152 0.124 87.4 6.8% 7.1%vs LHP 408 7.8% 10.0% 6.2% 25

8 Troy Johnston 30 D — COOL 183 0.107 89.6 3.8% 4.8%vs LHP 415 1.2% 0.0% 6.9% 16

vs Tomoyuki Sugano · RHP 1.87 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.81 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 57 C +330 · 25 0.224 91.6 12.4% 16.4%vs RHP 401 13.1% 8.3% 14.1% 37

2 Ketel Marte 53 C +350 COOL 35 0.194 90.1 11.4% 13.8%vs RHP 411 15.0% 8.3% 11.8% 31

3 Nolan Arenado 51 C +500 · 43 0.184 85.1 9.6% 20.7%vs RHP 390 14.7% 25.0% 19.1% 32

4 Gabriel Moreno 43 D +700 COOL 103 0.141 89.2 9.6% 13.5%vs RHP 400 8.3% 10.0% 7.9% 36

5 Ryan Waldschmidt 40 D +700 COOL 136 0.122 88.3 10.0% 8.3%vs RHP 419 3.4% 0.0% 6.8% 26

6 Geraldo Perdomo 38 D +750 WARM 143 0.131 87.2 6.6% 10.7%vs RHP 383 7.7% 8.3% 7.6% 41

7 Ildemaro Vargas 37 D — HOT 150 0.138 87.7 6.6% 8.6%vs RHP 399 4.7% 0.0% 7.8% 19

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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