TheHomeRuns.org — BAL @ MIN

Target Field is live · 1.13×

BAL @ MIN

Target Field · 7:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind 6 mph slight_out 85°F Roof open

Hourly window

+4 ↑

6:40p

+2 ↑

7:40p

+0 ↑

8:40p

-2 ↑

9:40p

-3 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +4

Best of game Royce Lewis conv 23 · vs Young ⟷ Pete Alonso conv 21 · vs Ober → edge: Pete Alonso

ATTACK Brandon Young RHP · BAL

leak 53

1.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.21 · leakiest side of this game

1 Royce Lewis +350 C ●●●●○

2 Trevor Larnach +500 D ●●●○○

3 Brooks Lee +625 D ●●○○○

FADE Bailey Ober RHP · MIN

leak 34

1.36 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.24 · stingy — thin edge

1 Pete Alonso +280 C ●●●○○

2 Coby Mayo +350 C ●●○○○

3 Colton Cowser +500 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Alonso: 13.8% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 18.2%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIN Royce Lewis vs Young +350 0.190 · 90.2 · 9.1% 27.3% 19.1% F B O C 50

· BAL Pete Alonso ✶ vs Ober +280 0.220 · 94.1 · 11.4% 18.2% 23.4% F B O C 58

· MIN Kody Clemens COOL vs Young Edge +370 0.234 · 92.4 · 8.7% 16.7% 14.8% F B O C 52

· BAL Coby Mayo vs Ober +350 0.224 · 92.4 · 10.4% 12.5% 12.4% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· MIN Trevor Larnach vs Young Edge +500 0.165 · 87.3 · 7.1% 22.2% 15.9% F B O D 42

· MIN Brooks Lee vs Young Edge +625 0.176 · 87.7 · 5.0% 18.2% 13.3% F B O D 41

· MIN Josh Bell vs Young Edge +400 0.169 · 89.9 · 8.1% 18.2% 11.6% F B O D 44

· MIN Luke Keaschall vs Young +850 0.097 · 84.6 · 4.6% 18.2% 7.8% F B O D 31

· BAL Colton Cowser vs Ober Edge +500 0.128 · 87.2 · 10.1% 12.5% 12.0% F B O D 44

· BAL Gunnar Henderson vs Ober Edge +320 0.170 · 89.6 · 8.2% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 44

· BAL Leody Taveras vs Ober Edge +525 0.127 · 87.6 · 6.7% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 35

· MIN Victor Caratini COOL vs Young Edge — 0.110 · 89.5 · 6.5% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 31

· MIN Austin Martin COOL vs Young — 0.077 · 86.9 · 3.9% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 26

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 35.3% ← leak OFF 35.1% BRK 29.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Pete Alonso R

15.3% 16.2% 9.8% 13.8% C 58 +280

Coby Mayo R

10.0% 16.0% 11.7% 11.4% C 53 +350

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Colton Cowser L Edge

15.6% 2.3% 10.5% 10.7% D 44 +500

Gunnar Henderson L Edge

7.8% 7.2% 5.9% 7.1% D 44 +320

160

Leody Taveras S Edge

5.3% 0.0% 7.8% 4.7% D 35 +525

Read the columns: the fastball family (35.3% usage) carries Ober's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.1% ← leak BRK 26.9% OFF 20.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Kody Clemens L Edge

8.9% 19.4% 10.4% 11.5% C 52 +370

Royce Lewis R

15.6% 7.9% 8.3% 12.6% C 50 +350

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Josh Bell S Edge

10.5% 12.9% 5.6% 9.9% D 44 +400

106

Trevor Larnach L Edge

7.7% 9.1% 5.7% 7.8% D 42 +500

120

Brooks Lee S Edge

7.1% 0.0% 1.2% 3.8% D 41 +625

175

Victor Caratini S Edge

5.4% 11.8% 6.2% 6.6% D 31 —

180

Luke Keaschall R

4.3% 2.2% 0.0% 3.2% D 31 +850

197

Austin Martin R

3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 2.3% D 26 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.1% usage) carries Young's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alonso Clemens Lewis Bell Larnach Lee

Legend

attack side — vs Young fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Royce Lewis +350 · 50

Stadium conditions

Target Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.94× Wind 6 mph slight_out 85°F open

↑

6 mph · slight_out

85°F

6:40p · peak

↑

5 mph · slight_out

83°F

7:40p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

81°F

8:40p

-2

↑

5 mph · cross

79°F

9:40p

-3

↑

5 mph · cross

77°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.13× 85°F, wind 6 mph N (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Bailey Ober · RHP 1.36 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.24 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso ✶ 58 C +280 WARM 20 0.220 94.1 11.4% 27.1%vs RHP 401 18.8% 18.2% 23.4% 27

2 Coby Mayo 53 C +350 WARM 34 0.224 92.4 10.4% 11.8%vs RHP 407 16.1% 12.5% 12.4% 19

3 Colton Cowser 44 D +500 WARM 92 0.128 87.2 10.1% 18.8%vs RHP 419 13.3% 12.5% 12.0% 14

4 Gunnar Henderson 44 D +320 WARM 98 0.170 89.6 8.2% 16.2%vs RHP 390 14.8% 0.0% 10.5% 27

5 Leody Taveras 35 D +525 · 160 0.127 87.6 6.7% 14.0%vs RHP 409 3.7% 0.0% 7.8% 23

vs Brandon Young · RHP 1.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.21 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kody Clemens 52 C +370 COOL 41 0.234 92.4 8.7% 19.0%vs RHP 391 17.6% 16.7% 14.8% 38

2 Royce Lewis 50 C +350 WARM 49 0.190 90.2 9.1% 18.0%vs RHP 400 17.3% 27.3% 19.1% 33

3 Josh Bell 44 D +400 · 95 0.169 89.9 8.1% 19.0%vs RHP 405 11.0% 18.2% 11.6% 35

4 Trevor Larnach 42 D +500 · 106 0.165 87.3 7.1% 16.1%vs RHP 397 9.8% 22.2% 15.9% 24

5 Brooks Lee 41 D +625 · 120 0.176 87.7 5.0% 20.0%vs RHP 371 15.0% 18.2% 13.3% 32

6 Victor Caratini 31 D — COOL 175 0.110 89.5 6.5% 16.7%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 17

7 Luke Keaschall 31 D +850 WARM 180 0.097 84.6 4.6% 9.2%vs RHP 373 6.0% 18.2% 7.8% 36

8 Austin Martin 26 D — COOL 197 0.077 86.9 3.9% 3.9%vs RHP 392 1.6% 0.0% 6.3% 21

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

10 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.