TheHomeRuns.org — BOS @ TOR

Playable air · 1.07×

BOS @ TOR

Rogers Centre · 7:07p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.97× Wind 6 mph cross 79°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-2 ↑

7:07p

-5 ↑

8:07p

-6 ↑

9:07p

-6 ↑

10:07p

-6 ↑

11:07p

best window is early — 7:07p at -2

Best of game Jesús Sánchez conv 15 · vs Sandoval ⟷ Wilyer Abreu conv 29 · vs Cease → edge: Wilyer Abreu

ATTACK Patrick Sandoval LHP · BOS

leak 25

1.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.14 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jesús Sánchez — D ●●○○○

2 Nathan Lukes — D ●○○○○

3 George Springer +525 D ●○○○○

FADE Dylan Cease RHP · TOR

leak 4

0.50 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.33 · stingy — thin edge

1 Wilyer Abreu +475 D ●●●●○

2 Jarren Duran +575 D ●●●○○

3 Ceddanne Rafaela +850 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Wilyer Abreu: 12.9% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 36.4% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BOS Willson Contreras vs Cease +500 0.246 · 90.8 · 8.5% 10.0% 19.7% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· BOS Wilyer Abreu ✶ vs Cease Edge +475 0.204 · 90.1 · 8.0% 36.4% 21.3% F B O D 49

· BOS Jarren Duran COOL vs Cease Edge +575 0.151 · 89.5 · 7.1% 25.0% 18.5% F B O D 42

· BOS Ceddanne Rafaela vs Cease +850 0.179 · 86.7 · 5.2% 25.0% 15.5% F B O D 40

· TOR Jesús Sánchez vs Sandoval — 0.168 · 91.0 · 8.0% 16.7% 12.6% F B O D 44

· TOR Nathan Lukes vs Sandoval — 0.106 · 86.6 · 2.7% 11.1% 8.3% F B O D 31

· TOR George Springer vs Sandoval Edge +525 0.162 · 88.5 · 6.3% 10.0% 8.1% F B O D 41

· BOS Masataka Yoshida vs Cease Edge +850 0.128 · 88.6 · 4.3% 10.0% 7.5% F B O D 32

· BOS Caleb Durbin COOL vs Cease +1000 0.155 · 84.1 · 3.7% 9.1% 8.3% F B O D 32

· BOS Andruw Monasterio vs Cease +750 0.183 · 88.9 · 6.6% 8.3% 7.5% F B O D 40

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Sandoval Edge +950 0.126 · 84.8 · 3.7% 8.3% 6.8% F B O D 32

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto COOL vs Sandoval Edge +425 0.204 · 90.3 · 8.3% 0.0% 11.9% F B O D 48

· TOR Andres Gimenez COOL vs Sandoval — 0.125 · 85.8 · 4.4% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 30

· TOR Myles Straw COOL vs Sandoval Edge +950 0.109 · 85.8 · 4.3% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 45.0% ← leak BRK 43.6% OFF 11.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Willson Contreras R

12.3% 14.5% 21.9% 14.0% C 52 +500

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Wilyer Abreu L Edge

12.0% 16.2% 11.8% 12.9% D 49 +475

105

Jarren Duran L Edge

12.3% 7.4% 7.9% 10.1% D 42 +575

129

Ceddanne Rafaela R

3.6% 5.6% 12.5% 5.5% D 40 +850

133

Andruw Monasterio R

7.9% 8.5% 14.3% 8.6% D 40 +750

167

Caleb Durbin R

3.4% 1.3% 3.1% 2.8% D 32 +1000

169

Masataka Yoshida L Edge

4.3% 0.0% 4.7% 3.7% D 32 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (45.0% usage) carries Cease's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 41.7% ← leak BRK 29.6% OFF 23.4% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Kazuma Okamoto R Edge

14.9% 7.2% 15.0% 12.6% D 48 +425

Jesús Sánchez L

11.0% 19.0% 0.0% 11.7% D 44 —

123

George Springer R Edge

7.9% 5.7% 7.7% 7.1% D 41 +525

170

Ernie Clement R Edge

2.6% 2.4% 2.0% 2.5% D 32 +950

177

Nathan Lukes L

0.0% 3.7% 2.4% 1.3% D 31 —

182

Andres Gimenez L

3.8% 2.3% 5.1% 3.5% D 30 —

184

Myles Straw R Edge

3.9% 0.0% 7.7% 3.4% D 30 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (41.7% usage) carries Sandoval's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Contreras Abreu Duran Rafaela Sánchez

Legend

attack side — vs Sandoval fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Wilyer Abreu +475 · 49

Jarren Duran +575 · 42

Stadium conditions

Rogers Centre

First pitch 7:07p · roof retractable

Park 0.97× Wind 6 mph cross 79°F retractable

-2

↑

6 mph · cross

79°F

7:07p · peak

-5

↑

6 mph · in

78°F

8:07p

-6

↑

6 mph · in

75°F

9:07p

-6

↑

5 mph · in

72°F

10:07p

-6

↑

5 mph · in

70°F

11:07p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.07× 79°F, wind 6 mph NE (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Dylan Cease · RHP 0.50 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.33 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras 52 C +500 WARM 40 0.246 90.8 8.5% 30.8%vs RHP 406 19.6% 10.0% 19.7% 15

2 Wilyer Abreu ✶ 49 D +475 WARM 59 0.204 90.1 8.0% 16.5%vs RHP 408 15.9% 36.4% 21.3% 34

3 Jarren Duran 42 D +575 COOL 105 0.151 89.5 7.1% 30.6%vs RHP 399 13.6% 25.0% 18.5% 35

4 Ceddanne Rafaela 40 D +850 WARM 129 0.179 86.7 5.2% 17.5%vs RHP 380 13.3% 25.0% 15.5% 41

5 Andruw Monasterio 40 D +750 · 133 0.183 88.9 6.6% 2.9%vs RHP 390 14.3% 8.3% 7.5% 37

6 Caleb Durbin 32 D +1000 COOL 167 0.155 84.1 3.7% 21.1%vs RHP 375 9.2% 9.1% 8.3% 40

7 Masataka Yoshida 32 D +850 WARM 169 0.128 88.6 4.3% 10.4%vs RHP 368 10.7% 10.0% 7.5% 31

vs Patrick Sandoval · LHP 1.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.14 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto 48 D +425 COOL 64 0.204 90.3 8.3% 19.2%vs LHP 397 17.5% 0.0% 11.9% 33

2 Jesús Sánchez 44 D — WARM 90 0.168 91.0 8.0% 0.0%vs LHP 398 11.1% 16.7% 12.6% 14

3 George Springer 41 D +525 · 123 0.162 88.5 6.3% 8.3%vs LHP 393 11.1% 10.0% 8.1% 30

4 Ernie Clement 32 D +950 COOL 170 0.126 84.8 3.7% 10.3%vs LHP 376 8.0% 8.3% 6.8% 42

5 Nathan Lukes 31 D — WARM 177 0.106 86.6 2.7% 10.2% 381 6.5% 11.1% 8.3% 37

6 Andres Gimenez 30 D — COOL 182 0.125 85.8 4.4% 16.7%vs LHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 33

7 Myles Straw 30 D +950 COOL 184 0.109 85.8 4.3% 6.1%vs LHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 29

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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