TheHomeRuns.org — PIT @ MIA

Suppressed air · 0.84×

PIT @ MIA

loanDepot Park · 6:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.84× Wind 13 mph in 89°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-15 ↑

6:40p

-15 ↑

7:40p

-15 ↑

8:40p

-13 ↑

9:40p

-10 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 10:40p window peaks -10

Best of game Kyle Stowers conv 23 · vs Skenes ⟷ Brandon Lowe conv 26 · vs Pérez → edge: Brandon Lowe

ATTACK Paul Skenes RHP · PIT

leak 54

0.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.02 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kyle Stowers — D ●●●●○

2 Javier Sanoja — D ●○○○○

3 Jakob Marsee +850 D ●○○○○

FADE Eury Pérez RHP · MIA

leak 17

1.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.07 · stingy — thin edge

1 Brandon Lowe +425 C ●●●●○

2 Jake Mangum — D ●●○○○

3 Bryan Reynolds +525 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Brandon Lowe: 12.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 30.8% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PIT Brandon Lowe ✶ vs Pérez Edge +425 0.232 · 91.1 · 11.0% 30.8% 21.1% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· MIA Kyle Stowers vs Skenes Edge — 0.220 · 92.1 · 9.0% 25.0% 20.7% F B O D 46

· PIT Jake Mangum HOT vs Pérez Edge — 0.088 · 85.7 · 4.3% 16.7% 6.5% F B O D 26

· MIA Javier Sanoja vs Skenes — 0.137 · 86.7 · 4.0% 11.1% 6.3% F B O D 26

· MIA Jakob Marsee COOL vs Skenes Edge +850 0.106 · 87.1 · 5.0% 11.1% 5.9% F B O D 25

· PIT Bryan Reynolds COOL vs Pérez Edge +525 0.174 · 90.6 · 10.4% 7.7% 8.5% F B O D 42

· MIA Heriberto Hernández COOL vs Skenes +575 0.221 · 91.7 · 9.2% 0.0% 12.8% F B O D 38

· MIA Owen Caissie COOL vs Skenes Edge +575 0.200 · 91.1 · 10.3% 0.0% 11.5% F B O D 41

· MIA Otto Lopez COOL vs Skenes +850 0.151 · 89.1 · 6.7% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 31

· PIT Spencer Horwitz COOL vs Pérez Edge +575 0.164 · 86.8 · 8.8% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 37

· PIT Nick Gonzales COOL vs Pérez +950 0.093 · 86.3 · 5.2% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 26

· PIT Jared Triolo COOL vs Pérez — 0.063 · 87.5 · 4.6% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 22

· MIA Xavier Edwards COOL vs Skenes Edge +950 0.106 · 87.0 · 5.2% 0.0% 5.4% F B O D 24

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 55.4% ← leak BRK 35.3% OFF 9.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Brandon Lowe L Edge

16.6% 8.2% 9.1% 12.5% C 53 +425

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

113

Bryan Reynolds S Edge

11.2% 14.5% 7.2% 11.1% D 42 +525

149

Spencer Horwitz L Edge

7.8% 7.0% 10.7% 8.0% D 37 +575

194

Nick Gonzales R

2.3% 4.9% 0.0% 2.8% D 26 +950

195

Jake Mangum S Edge

3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% D 26 —

204

Jared Triolo R

2.5% 2.8% 0.0% 2.2% D 22 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (55.4% usage) carries Pérez's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 52.0% ← leak OFF 24.2% BRK 23.1% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Kyle Stowers L Edge

10.1% 7.5% 17.5% 11.5% D 46 —

121

Owen Caissie L Edge

16.9% 20.0% 7.9% 15.1% D 41 +575

140

Heriberto Hernández R

11.7% 16.7% 11.5% 12.1% D 38 +575

178

Otto Lopez R

9.1% 1.6% 4.3% 6.2% D 31 +850

196

Javier Sanoja R

2.6% 0.0% 2.3% 2.2% D 26 —

200

Jakob Marsee L Edge

3.1% 8.1% 2.0% 3.5% D 25 +850

202

Xavier Edwards S Edge

4.5% 2.9% 2.4% 3.8% D 24 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.0% usage) carries Skenes's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Lowe Stowers

Legend

attack side — vs Skenes fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Brandon Lowe +425 · 53

Kyle Stowers — · 46

Stadium conditions

loanDepot Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 0.84× Wind 13 mph in 89°F retractable

-15

↑

13 mph · in

89°F

6:40p

-15

↑

14 mph · in

87°F

7:40p

-15

↑

12 mph · in

86°F

8:40p

-13

↑

10 mph · in

85°F

9:40p

-10

↑

7 mph · in

84°F

10:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.84× 89°F, wind 13 mph ESE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Eury Pérez · RHP 1.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.07 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Brandon Lowe ✶ 53 C +425 WARM 33 0.232 91.1 11.0% 26.2%vs RHP 392 16.8% 30.8% 21.1% 30

2 Bryan Reynolds 42 D +525 COOL 113 0.174 90.6 10.4% 18.0%vs RHP 409 12.1% 7.7% 8.5% 34

3 Spencer Horwitz 37 D +575 COOL 149 0.164 86.8 8.8% 16.7%vs RHP 395 11.0% 0.0% 7.9% 17

4 Nick Gonzales 26 D +950 COOL 194 0.093 86.3 5.2% 10.9%vs RHP 397 7.1% 0.0% 7.1% 46

5 Jake Mangum 26 D — HOT 195 0.088 85.7 4.3% 10.7%vs RHP 393 5.3% 16.7% 6.5% 36

6 Jared Triolo 22 D — COOL 204 0.063 87.5 4.6% 5.3%vs RHP 419 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% 17

vs Paul Skenes · RHP 0.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.02 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Stowers 46 D — WARM 72 0.220 92.1 9.0% 23.4%vs RHP 396 13.5% 25.0% 20.7% 32

2 Owen Caissie 41 D +575 COOL 121 0.200 91.1 10.3% 26.7%vs RHP 398 14.5% 0.0% 11.5% 14

3 Heriberto Hernández 38 D +575 COOL 140 0.221 91.7 9.2% 16.7%vs RHP 411 0.0% 0.0% 12.8% 25

4 Otto Lopez 31 D +850 COOL 178 0.151 89.1 6.7% 11.3%vs RHP 402 7.0% 0.0% 8.1% 48

5 Javier Sanoja 26 D — WARM 196 0.137 86.7 4.0% 2.7%vs RHP 383 5.2% 11.1% 6.3% 32

6 Jakob Marsee 25 D +850 COOL 200 0.106 87.1 5.0% 8.2%vs RHP 380 6.5% 11.1% 5.9% 26

7 Xavier Edwards 24 D +950 COOL 202 0.106 87.0 5.2% 2.9%vs RHP 396 4.4% 0.0% 5.4% 37

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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