TheHomeRuns.org — TEX @ LAA

Angel Stadium is live · 1.29×

TEX @ LAA

Angel Stadium · 9:38p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.86× Wind 11 mph out 82°F Roof open

Hourly window

+8 ↑

6:38p

+7 ↑

7:38p

+5 ↑

8:38p

+4 ↑

9:38p

+3 ↑

10:38p

best window is early — 6:38p at +8

Best of game Joc Pederson conv 27 · vs Johnson ⟷ Mike Trout conv 9 · vs Bradford → edge: Joc Pederson

ATTACK Ryan Johnson RHP · LAA

leak 89

2.34 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.26 · leakiest side of this game

1 Joc Pederson +225 C+ ●●●●○

2 Brandon Nimmo +330 C ●●●○○

3 Corey Seager +265 C ●●○○○

FADE Cody Bradford LHP

leak 3

0.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -2.54 · stingy — thin edge

1 Mike Trout +290 D ●○○○○

2 Zach Neto +320 D ●○○○○

3 Nolan Schanuel — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Joc Pederson: 11.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TEX Joc Pederson ✶ vs Johnson Edge +225 0.252 · 91.9 · 10.7% 25.0% 28.4% F B O C+ 60

· TEX Brandon Nimmo COOL vs Johnson Edge +330 0.173 · 92.0 · 10.7% 25.0% 16.2% F B O C 50

· TEX Corey Seager vs Johnson Edge +265 0.186 · 91.2 · 12.2% 12.5% 11.6% F B O C 51

· TEX Wyatt Langford COOL vs Johnson +330 0.218 · 89.4 · 9.1% 8.3% 13.8% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· TEX Ezequiel Duran COOL vs Johnson +700 0.178 · 88.6 · 8.0% 8.3% 11.4% F B O D 44

· — Mike Trout COOL vs Bradford Edge +290 0.203 · 90.1 · 11.5% 9.1% 8.5% F B O D 47

· — Zach Neto COOL vs Bradford Edge +320 0.193 · 89.4 · 9.6% 9.1% 7.9% F B O D 44

· — Nolan Schanuel vs Bradford — 0.117 · 87.6 · 4.5% 9.1% 5.4% F B O D 28

· TEX Jake Burger vs Johnson +330 0.179 · 90.0 · 10.5% 0.0% 11.6% F B O D 48

· TEX Evan Carter COOL vs Johnson Edge +525 0.133 · 87.5 · 7.7% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 38

· — Oswald Peraza vs Bradford Edge +575 0.127 · 87.6 · 7.5% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 32

· — Josh Lowe vs Bradford — 0.140 · 89.0 · 8.3% 0.0% 5.4% F B O D 34

· — Vaughn Grissom COOL vs Bradford Edge +750 0.138 · 88.4 · 7.1% 0.0% 4.2% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 57.5% ← leak OFF 25.3% BRK 16.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Joc Pederson L Edge

14.2% 3.8% 12.5% 11.3% C+ 60 +225

Corey Seager L Edge

14.1% 16.1% 13.9% 14.5% C 51 +265

Brandon Nimmo L Edge

8.8% 8.7% 18.4% 11.3% C 50 +330

Wyatt Langford R

5.1% 15.8% 12.3% 8.2% C 50 +330

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Jake Burger R

10.1% 9.7% 12.9% 11.0% D 48 +330

Ezequiel Duran R

7.9% 0.0% 6.1% 6.3% D 44 +700

144

Evan Carter L Edge

7.9% 0.0% 4.8% 5.8% D 38 +525

Read the columns: the fastball family (57.5% usage) carries Johnson's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 46.8% OFF 35.5% Overall Score

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Mike Trout R Edge

15.9% 12.5% 16.9% D 47 +290

Zach Neto R Edge

14.4% 10.5% 12.0% D 44 +320

161

Josh Lowe L

13.0% 6.7% 9.0% D 34 —

168

Oswald Peraza R Edge

6.4% 12.0% 7.3% D 32 +575

171

Vaughn Grissom R Edge

8.0% 0.0% 6.5% D 32 +750

190

Nolan Schanuel L

2.8% 0.0% 2.6% D 28 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Bradford's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Pederson Nimmo

Legend

attack side — vs Johnson fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Joc Pederson +225 · 60

Stadium conditions

Angel Stadium

First pitch 6:38p · roof open

Park 0.86× Wind 11 mph out 82°F open

↑

11 mph · out

82°F

6:38p · peak

↑

10 mph · out

78°F

7:38p

↑

9 mph · out

76°F

8:38p

↑

8 mph · out

75°F

9:38p

↑

7 mph · out

73°F

10:38p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.29× 82°F, wind 11 mph SW (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Ryan Johnson · RHP 2.34 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.26 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson ✶ 60 C+ +225 · 12 0.252 91.9 10.7% 30.9%vs RHP 395 22.2% 25.0% 28.4% 19

2 Corey Seager 51 C +265 · 47 0.186 91.2 12.2% 21.9%vs RHP 396 16.9% 12.5% 11.6% 22

3 Brandon Nimmo 50 C +330 COOL 51 0.173 92.0 10.7% 12.9%vs RHP 403 11.2% 25.0% 16.2% 33

4 Wyatt Langford 50 C +330 COOL 52 0.218 89.4 9.1% 20.9%vs RHP 397 16.7% 8.3% 13.8% 28

5 Jake Burger 48 D +330 · 65 0.179 90.0 10.5% 23.1%vs RHP 398 15.2% 0.0% 11.6% 27

6 Ezequiel Duran 44 D +700 COOL 96 0.178 88.6 8.0% 22.4%vs RHP 393 13.3% 8.3% 11.4% 32

7 Evan Carter 38 D +525 COOL 144 0.133 87.5 7.7% 14.0%vs RHP 374 8.5% 0.0% 7.5% 24

vs Cody Bradford · LHP 0.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -2.54 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mike Trout 47 D +290 COOL 70 0.203 90.1 11.5% 19.1%vs LHP 408 15.6% 9.1% 8.5% 23

2 Zach Neto 44 D +320 COOL 99 0.193 89.4 9.6% 16.7%vs LHP 402 16.2% 9.1% 7.9% 29

3 Josh Lowe 34 D — · 161 0.140 89.0 8.3% 12.3% 396 9.3% 0.0% 5.4% 10

4 Oswald Peraza 32 D +575 WARM 168 0.127 87.6 7.5% 26.3%vs LHP 386 6.1% 0.0% 7.5% 7

5 Vaughn Grissom 32 D +750 COOL 171 0.138 88.4 7.1% 0.0%vs LHP 390 9.8% 0.0% 4.2% 26

6 Nolan Schanuel 28 D — WARM 190 0.117 87.6 4.5% 16.7%vs LHP 375 7.1% 9.1% 5.4% 36

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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