TheHomeRuns.org — HOU @ SF

Oracle Park is live · 1.20×

HOU @ SF

Oracle Park · 9:45p · 13 ranked batters

Park 0.86× Wind 12 mph out 69°F Roof open

Hourly window

+7 ↑

6:45p

+6 ↑

7:45p

+4 ↑

8:45p

+2 ↑

9:45p

+1 ↑

10:45p

best window is early — 6:45p at +7

Best of game Rafael Devers conv 17 · vs Brown ⟷ Yainer Diaz conv 17 · vs Proxy → edge: Yordan Alvarez

ATTACK Hunter Brown RHP · HOU

leak 90

1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.50 · leakiest side of this game

1 Rafael Devers +500 C ●●●○○

2 Bryce Eldridge +625 D ●●○○○

3 Willy Adames +525 D ●●○○○

FADE SF Bullpen Proxy · SF

leak 41

0.97 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Yainer Diaz +750 D ●●●○○

2 Christian Walker +475 D ●●●○○

3 Jeremy Peña +625 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Yordan Alvarez: Match 13.6%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SF Rafael Devers vs Brown Edge +500 0.226 · 92.5 · 8.8% 16.7% 17.4% F B O C 50

· HOU Yordan Alvarez ✶ COOL vs Proxy +350 0.304 · 94.4 · 17.7% 0.0% 13.6% F B O C+ 61

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· HOU Yainer Diaz vs Proxy +750 0.148 · 87.6 · 5.3% 22.2% 10.8% F B O D 36

· HOU Christian Walker vs Proxy +475 0.216 · 89.5 · 9.6% 18.2% 14.5% F B O D 49

· HOU Jeremy Peña vs Proxy +625 0.190 · 88.3 · 5.4% 18.2% 13.6% F B O D 40

· HOU Cam Smith vs Proxy +575 0.167 · 89.4 · 11.4% 10.0% 14.4% F B O D 45

· SF Bryce Eldridge COOL vs Brown Edge +625 0.177 · 92.1 · 9.0% 9.1% 11.1% F B O D 44

· SF Willy Adames COOL vs Brown +525 0.191 · 87.3 · 7.7% 8.3% 11.3% F B O D 42

· HOU Isaac Paredes COOL vs Proxy +575 0.164 · 86.3 · 5.5% 10.0% 7.6% F B O D 35

· SF Jung Hoo Lee vs Brown Edge — 0.142 · 86.8 · 4.1% 8.3% 7.9% F B O D 30

· HOU Jose Altuve COOL vs Proxy +625 0.152 · 85.6 · 5.2% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 29

· HOU Christian Vazquez COOL vs Proxy — 0.111 · 85.7 · 1.2% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 23

· SF Drew Gilbert vs Brown Edge — 0.115 · 86.1 · 4.6% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for SF Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

FB 62.5% ← leak BRK 28.3% OFF 9.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Rafael Devers L Edge

12.4% 10.3% 8.1% 11.0% C 50 +500

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

101

Bryce Eldridge L Edge

11.9% 5.7% 16.1% 11.4% D 44 +625

114

Willy Adames R

7.7% 8.6% 13.8% 8.6% D 42 +525

186

Jung Hoo Lee L Edge

2.4% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% D 30 —

192

Drew Gilbert L Edge

3.2% 4.5% 0.0% 3.0% D 28 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (62.5% usage) carries Brown's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alvarez Walker Peña Diaz Devers

Legend

attack side — vs Brown fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Oracle Park

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 0.86× Wind 12 mph out 69°F open

↑

12 mph · out

69°F

6:45p · peak

↑

11 mph · out

66°F

7:45p

↑

10 mph · out

64°F

8:45p

↑

9 mph · out

62°F

9:45p

↑

9 mph · out

60°F

10:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.20× 69°F, wind 12 mph WSW (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs SF Bullpen Proxy 0.97 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez ✶ 61 C+ +350 COOL 22 0.304 94.4 17.7% 23.8% 405 0.0% 0.0% 13.6% 32

2 Christian Walker 49 D +475 WARM 79 0.216 89.5 9.6% 19.8% 391 18.0% 18.2% 14.5% 32

3 Cam Smith 45 D +575 · 116 0.167 89.4 11.4% 16.5% 408 12.4% 10.0% 14.4% 24

4 Jeremy Peña 40 D +625 · 154 0.190 88.3 5.4% 19.7% 385 15.0% 18.2% 13.6% 30

5 Yainer Diaz 36 D +750 WARM 165 0.148 87.6 5.3% 18.2% 398 10.5% 22.2% 10.8% 29

6 Isaac Paredes 35 D +575 COOL 174 0.164 86.3 5.5% 9.9% 377 11.6% 10.0% 7.6% 36

7 Jose Altuve 29 D +625 COOL 198 0.152 85.6 5.2% 16.5% 379 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 39

8 Christian Vazquez 23 D — COOL 208 0.111 85.7 1.2% 9.3% 377 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 5

vs Hunter Brown · RHP 1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.50 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers 50 C +500 · 55 0.226 92.5 8.8% 27.0%vs RHP 398 18.3% 16.7% 17.4% 35

2 Bryce Eldridge 44 D +625 COOL 101 0.177 92.1 9.0% 21.4%vs RHP 396 17.6% 9.1% 11.1% 29

3 Willy Adames 42 D +525 COOL 114 0.191 87.3 7.7% 20.5%vs RHP 387 14.9% 8.3% 11.3% 33

4 Jung Hoo Lee 30 D — · 186 0.142 86.8 4.1% 12.3%vs RHP 382 5.6% 8.3% 7.9% 42

5 Drew Gilbert 28 D — WARM 192 0.115 86.1 4.6% 10.8%vs RHP 398 2.9% 0.0% 7.1% 21

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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