TheHomeRuns.org — CHC @ WSH

Nationals Park is live · 1.30×

CHC @ WSH

Nationals Park · 6:45p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.18× Wind 4 mph out 83°F Roof open

Hourly window

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6:45p

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7:45p

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8:45p

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9:45p

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10:45p

the 6:45p window peaks +10

Best of game Daylen Lile conv 23 · vs Imanaga ⟷ Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 25 · vs Proxy → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK Shota Imanaga LHP · CHC

leak 93

1.71 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.63 · leakiest side of this game

1 Daylen Lile +525 C ●●●○○

2 Cj Abrams +500 C+ ●●○○○

3 Dylan Crews +400 C ●●○○○

FADE WSH Bullpen Proxy · WSH

leak 69

1.42 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong +320 B ●●●●○

2 Ian Happ +390 C+ ●●●○○

3 Nico Hoerner +950 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: Match 33.8% · 14D pace 15.4%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ HOT vs Proxy +320 0.258 · 90.3 · 12.3% 15.4% 33.8% F B O B 72

· WSH Daylen Lile vs Imanaga +525 0.173 · 88.4 · 8.7% 25.0% 20.1% F B O C 56

· CHC Ian Happ COOL vs Proxy +390 0.203 · 89.3 · 11.6% 15.4% 23.1% F B O C+ 64

· CHC Seiya Suzuki vs Proxy +390 0.201 · 88.8 · 9.9% 9.1% 16.3% F B O C+ 60

· CHC Dansby Swanson COOL vs Proxy +525 0.182 · 89.3 · 7.1% 7.7% 14.2% F B O C 53

· WSH Cj Abrams COOL vs Imanaga +500 0.256 · 89.8 · 9.8% 0.0% 21.3% F B O C+ 64

· WSH Dylan Crews vs Imanaga Edge +400 0.147 · 90.7 · 9.7% 8.3% 11.7% F B O C 53

· CHC Michael Busch COOL vs Proxy +350 0.146 · 88.2 · 9.3% 7.7% 10.8% F B O C 53

· CHC Michael Conforto COOL vs Proxy +475 0.219 · 91.4 · 11.7% 0.0% 17.8% F B O C 59

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs Proxy +950 0.103 · 85.9 · 1.2% 16.7% 8.9% F B O D 37

· CHC Carson Kelly COOL vs Proxy +700 0.117 · 87.3 · 5.8% 12.5% 9.5% F B O D 45

· CHC Alex Bregman vs Proxy +700 0.132 · 88.2 · 4.2% 7.7% 9.3% F B O D 44

· WSH Keibert Ruiz COOL vs Imanaga Edge — 0.166 · 88.5 · 6.4% 0.0% 14.0% F B O D 48

· WSH Jacob Young COOL vs Imanaga Edge +850 0.150 · 88.3 · 7.5% 0.0% 10.3% F B O D 47

· WSH Nasim Nunez COOL vs Imanaga Edge +950 0.039 · 84.6 · 1.9% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 28

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for WSH Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

FB 47.7% ← leak OFF 32.5% BRK 19.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Cj Abrams L

10.9% 12.8% 9.6% 10.7% C+ 64 +500

Daylen Lile L

8.2% 4.7% 11.8% 8.4% C 56 +525

Dylan Crews R Edge

7.0% 10.5% 22.9% 10.4% C 53 +400

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Keibert Ruiz S Edge

5.9% 2.4% 3.3% 4.5% D 48 —

Jacob Young R Edge

8.0% 2.9% 4.0% 6.2% D 47 +850

191

Nasim Nunez S Edge

0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% D 28 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (47.7% usage) carries Imanaga's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Crow-Armstrong Happ Lile

Legend

attack side — vs Imanaga fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Daylen Lile +525 · 56

Stadium conditions

Nationals Park

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 1.18× Wind 4 mph out 83°F open

+10

↑

4 mph · out

83°F

6:45p · peak

+10

↑

4 mph · out

81°F

7:45p

+10

↑

4 mph · out

79°F

8:45p

↑

4 mph · out

77°F

9:45p

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5 mph · out

75°F

10:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.30× 83°F, wind 4 mph SW (out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs WSH Bullpen Proxy 1.42 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 72 B +320 HOT 4 0.258 90.3 12.3% 18.6% 395 19.3% 15.4% 33.8% 34

2 Ian Happ 64 C+ +390 COOL 11 0.203 89.3 11.6% 18.3% 402 17.8% 15.4% 23.1% 29

3 Seiya Suzuki 60 C+ +390 · 26 0.201 88.8 9.9% 17.9% 405 15.6% 9.1% 16.3% 33

4 Michael Conforto 59 C +475 COOL 28 0.219 91.4 11.7% 18.4% 399 7.1% 0.0% 17.8% 15

5 Dansby Swanson 53 C +525 COOL 56 0.182 89.3 7.1% 15.2% 403 12.0% 7.7% 14.2% 32

6 Michael Busch 53 C +350 COOL 57 0.146 88.2 9.3% 11.2% 401 12.5% 7.7% 10.8% 48

7 Carson Kelly 45 D +700 COOL 117 0.117 87.3 5.8% 10.1% 413 7.2% 12.5% 9.5% 25

8 Alex Bregman 44 D +700 WARM 127 0.132 88.2 4.2% 8.4% 387 9.5% 7.7% 9.3% 46

9 Nico Hoerner 37 D +950 WARM 162 0.103 85.9 1.2% 5.6% 381 6.0% 16.7% 8.9% 40

vs Shota Imanaga · LHP 1.71 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.63 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Cj Abrams 64 C+ +500 COOL 7 0.256 89.8 9.8% 20.8%vs LHP 396 33.3% 0.0% 21.3% 34

2 Daylen Lile 56 C +525 WARM 27 0.173 88.4 8.7% 5.0%vs LHP 400 10.6% 25.0% 20.1% 33

3 Dylan Crews 53 C +400 · 37 0.147 90.7 9.7% 18.2%vs LHP 406 16.4% 8.3% 11.7% 31

4 Keibert Ruiz 48 D — COOL 66 0.166 88.5 6.4% 23.1%vs LHP 377 9.1% 0.0% 14.0% 26

5 Jacob Young 47 D +850 COOL 71 0.150 88.3 7.5% 8.0%vs LHP 396 7.3% 0.0% 10.3% 25

6 Nasim Nunez 28 D +950 COOL 191 0.039 84.6 1.9% 6.2%vs LHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 33

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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