TheHomeRuns.org — CHC @ KC

Kauffman Stadium is live · 1.89×

CHC @ KC

Kauffman Stadium · 2:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.99× Wind 16 mph out 96°F Roof open

Hourly window

+16 ↑

1:10p

+16 ↑

2:10p

+16 ↑

3:10p

+16 ↑

4:10p

+14 ↑

5:10p

best window is early — 1:10p at +16

Best of game Jac Caglianone conv 24 · vs Boyd ⟷ Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 19 · vs Dobnak → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK Matthew Boyd LHP · CHC

leak 34

1.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.07 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jac Caglianone +400 C ●●●●○

2 Carter Jensen +500 C ●●●○○

3 Michael Massey — D ●●○○○

FADE Randy Dobnak RHP · KC

leak 8

0.60 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.27 · stingy — thin edge

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong +280 C ●●●○○

2 Nico Hoerner +950 D ●●○○○

3 Seiya Suzuki +350 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: Match 24.3% · 14D pace 14.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· KC Jac Caglianone COOL vs Boyd +400 0.200 · 92.9 · 11.4% 25.0% 22.6% F B O C 56

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ vs Dobnak Edge +280 0.260 · 90.4 · 8.5% 14.3% 24.3% F B O C 59

· KC Carter Jensen vs Boyd +500 0.192 · 90.7 · 9.7% 18.2% 17.6% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs Dobnak +950 0.102 · 85.9 · 2.7% 23.1% 8.7% F B O D 32

· CHC Seiya Suzuki vs Dobnak +350 0.203 · 88.9 · 7.7% 15.4% 12.4% F B O D 49

· CHC Alex Bregman vs Dobnak +525 0.135 · 88.2 · 5.1% 15.4% 7.6% F B O D 38

· KC Michael Massey vs Boyd — 0.161 · 89.9 · 7.6% 10.0% 12.8% F B O D 42

· CHC Ian Happ COOL vs Dobnak Edge +400 0.191 · 89.2 · 8.3% 7.1% 11.2% F B O D 49

· CHC Dansby Swanson COOL vs Dobnak +475 0.187 · 89.6 · 6.6% 7.1% 10.6% F B O D 45

· CHC Carson Kelly COOL vs Dobnak +625 0.114 · 87.3 · 5.9% 10.0% 6.5% F B O D 36

· CHC Michael Busch COOL vs Dobnak Edge +400 0.147 · 88.3 · 7.5% 7.1% 7.8% F B O D 42

· CHC Michael Conforto COOL vs Dobnak Edge — 0.220 · 91.5 · 8.2% 0.0% 11.9% F B O D 47

· KC Salvador Perez COOL vs Boyd Edge +330 0.158 · 88.9 · 9.7% 0.0% 10.3% F B O D 41

· KC Isaac Collins COOL vs Boyd Edge +700 0.129 · 88.4 · 7.3% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 37

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 48.7% BRK 27.2% OFF 21.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Pete Crow-Armstrong L Edge

10.8% 13.3% 14.3% 12.2% C 59 +280

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Seiya Suzuki R

11.0% 9.4% 9.1% 10.2% D 49 +350

Ian Happ S Edge

14.6% 15.6% 1.5% 11.5% D 49 +400

Michael Conforto L Edge

9.7% 17.6% 13.6% 11.7% D 47 —

Dansby Swanson R

7.0% 6.6% 12.1% 7.4% D 45 +475

105

Michael Busch L Edge

12.8% 4.2% 2.3% 9.4% D 42 +400

132

Alex Bregman R

2.9% 7.2% 6.2% 4.4% D 38 +525

147

Carson Kelly R

6.8% 4.3% 5.9% 6.0% D 36 +625

173

Nico Hoerner R

1.1% 1.0% 2.3% 1.2% D 32 +950

Read the columns: no single family leads Dobnak's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 45.7% ← leak OFF 27.0% BRK 26.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jac Caglianone L

12.7% 10.9% 18.0% 14.1% C 56 +400

Carter Jensen L

10.5% 10.0% 9.5% 10.0% C 51 +500

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

100

Michael Massey L

7.7% 1.9% 5.8% 6.1% D 42 —

109

Salvador Perez R Edge

13.2% 8.0% 6.7% 9.9% D 41 +330

138

Isaac Collins S Edge

5.6% 2.5% 10.0% 5.6% D 37 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (45.7% usage) carries Boyd's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Crow-Armstrong Suzuki Hoerner Caglianone Jensen

Legend

attack side — vs Boyd fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Jac Caglianone +400 · 56

Stadium conditions

Kauffman Stadium

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 0.99× Wind 16 mph out 96°F open

+16

↑

15 mph · out

91°F

1:10p · peak

+16

↑

15 mph · out

95°F

2:10p

+16

↑

14 mph · out

98°F

3:10p

+16

↑

14 mph · out

100°F

4:10p

+14

↑

14 mph · out

98°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.89× 96°F, wind 16 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +9 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Randy Dobnak · RHP 0.60 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.27 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 59 C +280 WARM 16 0.260 90.4 8.5% 22.9%vs RHP 395 19.5% 14.3% 24.3% 35

2 Seiya Suzuki 49 D +350 · 56 0.203 88.9 7.7% 21.4%vs RHP 405 15.6% 15.4% 12.4% 40

3 Ian Happ 49 D +400 COOL 60 0.191 89.2 8.3% 22.4%vs RHP 404 17.1% 7.1% 11.2% 30

4 Michael Conforto 47 D — COOL 73 0.220 91.5 8.2% 15.9%vs RHP 399 7.3% 0.0% 11.9% 14

5 Dansby Swanson 45 D +475 COOL 83 0.187 89.6 6.6% 16.7%vs RHP 403 12.1% 7.1% 10.6% 35

6 Michael Busch 42 D +400 COOL 105 0.147 88.3 7.5% 14.5%vs RHP 401 12.6% 7.1% 7.8% 51

7 Alex Bregman 38 D +525 WARM 132 0.135 88.2 5.1% 16.2%vs RHP 387 9.6% 15.4% 7.6% 46

8 Carson Kelly 36 D +625 COOL 147 0.114 87.3 5.9% 6.9%vs RHP 413 7.2% 10.0% 6.5% 30

9 Nico Hoerner 32 D +950 WARM 173 0.102 85.9 2.7% 7.9%vs RHP 381 6.0% 23.1% 8.7% 46

vs Matthew Boyd · LHP 1.01 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.07 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jac Caglianone 56 C +400 COOL 23 0.200 92.9 11.4% 27.8%vs LHP 416 14.6% 25.0% 22.6% 41

2 Carter Jensen 51 C +500 · 42 0.192 90.7 9.7% 11.1%vs LHP 394 15.2% 18.2% 17.6% 24

3 Michael Massey 42 D — · 100 0.161 89.9 7.6% 33.3%vs LHP 401 6.4% 10.0% 12.8% 36

4 Salvador Perez 41 D +330 COOL 109 0.158 88.9 9.7% 14.7%vs LHP 405 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 34

5 Isaac Collins 37 D +700 COOL 138 0.129 88.4 7.3% 8.7%vs LHP 394 6.1% 0.0% 7.8% 32

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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