TheHomeRuns.org — ATH @ BOS

Fenway Park is live · 1.17×

ATH @ BOS

Fenway Park · 1:35p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.90× Wind 11 mph slight_out 89°F Roof open

Hourly window

+5 ↑

1:35p

+5 ↑

2:35p

+4 ↑

3:35p

+4 ↑

4:35p

+4 ↑

5:35p

best window is early — 1:35p at +5

Best of game Wilyer Abreu conv 27 · vs Ginn ⟷ Tyler Soderstrom conv 22 · vs Proxy → edge: Wilyer Abreu

ATTACK J.T. Ginn RHP · ATH

leak 55

1.02 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.14 · leakiest side of this game

1 Wilyer Abreu — C ●●●●○

2 Ceddanne Rafaela — D ●●●●○

3 Jarren Duran — D ●●●○○

FADE BOS Bullpen Proxy · BOS

leak 41

0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Tyler Soderstrom — C ●●●○○

2 Henry Bolte — D ●●○○○

3 Lawrence Butler — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Wilyer Abreu: 13.1% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BOS Wilyer Abreu ✶ vs Ginn Edge — 0.205 · 90.1 · 9.0% 33.3% 20.9% F B O C 51

· ATH Tyler Soderstrom vs Proxy — 0.220 · 90.7 · 9.2% 23.1% 20.2% F B O C 50

· BOS Willson Contreras vs Ginn — 0.252 · 90.7 · 9.5% 9.1% 18.9% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· BOS Ceddanne Rafaela vs Ginn — 0.182 · 86.7 · 5.9% 30.8% 17.1% F B O D 43

· BOS Jarren Duran COOL vs Ginn Edge — 0.154 · 89.6 · 8.0% 23.1% 17.1% F B O D 43

· ATH Henry Bolte vs Proxy — 0.086 · 90.5 · 7.5% 15.4% 9.9% F B O D 34

· ATH Lawrence Butler HOT vs Proxy — 0.118 · 89.1 · 7.0% 16.7% 8.5% F B O D 34

· BOS Caleb Durbin COOL vs Ginn — 0.156 · 84.1 · 4.2% 7.7% 9.1% F B O D 34

· BOS Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Ginn — 0.189 · 88.9 · 7.4% 7.7% 8.3% F B O D 42

· BOS Masataka Yoshida vs Ginn Edge — 0.128 · 88.6 · 4.8% 8.3% 7.3% F B O D 33

· ATH Jonah Heim vs Proxy — 0.197 · 87.4 · 6.9% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 39

· ATH Carlos Cortes COOL vs Proxy — 0.150 · 89.9 · 7.2% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 35

· ATH Jacob Wilson vs Proxy — 0.120 · 84.0 · 2.7% 0.0% 6.5% F B O D 26

· ATH Jeff Mcneil COOL vs Proxy — 0.079 · 86.3 · 1.1% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 20

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for BOS Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

FB 64.0% ← leak OFF 20.3% BRK 15.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Willson Contreras R

12.3% 21.9% 14.8% 14.1% C 54 —

Wilyer Abreu L Edge

12.0% 12.2% 16.2% 13.1% C 51 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Jarren Duran L Edge

12.5% 8.1% 7.5% 10.2% D 43 —

Ceddanne Rafaela R

3.6% 13.0% 5.9% 5.6% D 43 —

103

Andruw Monasterio R

8.2% 14.3% 8.6% 8.9% D 42 —

161

Caleb Durbin R

3.4% 3.1% 1.3% 2.9% D 34 —

171

Masataka Yoshida L Edge

4.3% 4.7% 0.0% 3.7% D 33 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (64.0% usage) carries Ginn's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Soderstrom Contreras Abreu Duran Rafaela

Legend

attack side — vs Ginn fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Wilyer Abreu — · 51

Tyler Soderstrom — · 50

Stadium conditions

Fenway Park

First pitch 1:35p · roof open

Park 0.90× Wind 11 mph slight_out 89°F open

↑

11 mph · slight_out

86°F

1:35p · peak

↑

11 mph · slight_out

87°F

2:35p

↑

11 mph · slight_out

89°F

3:35p

↑

12 mph · slight_out

90°F

4:35p

↑

11 mph · slight_out

89°F

5:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.17× 89°F, wind 11 mph W (slight_out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs BOS Bullpen Proxy 0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Tyler Soderstrom 50 C — WARM 76 0.220 90.7 9.2% 17.6% 404 16.7% 23.1% 20.2% 33

2 Jonah Heim 39 D — WARM 150 0.197 87.4 6.9% 16.4% 414 10.8% 0.0% 10.9% 39

3 Carlos Cortes 35 D — COOL 180 0.150 89.9 7.2% 13.0% 403 5.0% 0.0% 9.6% 6

4 Lawrence Butler 34 D — HOT 184 0.118 89.1 7.0% 13.5% 407 5.2% 16.7% 8.5% 32

5 Henry Bolte 34 D — WARM 185 0.086 90.5 7.5% 12.1% 420 11.1% 15.4% 9.9% 27

6 Jacob Wilson 26 D — · 205 0.120 84.0 2.7% 10.8% 386 7.0% 0.0% 6.5% 38

7 Jeff Mcneil 20 D — COOL 210 0.079 86.3 1.1% 5.1% 377 3.0% 0.0% 5.9% 28

vs J.T. Ginn · RHP 1.02 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.14 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras 54 C — WARM 28 0.252 90.7 9.5% 31.4%vs RHP 406 19.8% 9.1% 18.9% 17

2 Wilyer Abreu ✶ 51 C — WARM 43 0.205 90.1 9.0% 16.5%vs RHP 408 16.1% 33.3% 20.9% 36

3 Jarren Duran 43 D — COOL 92 0.154 89.6 8.0% 31.2%vs RHP 399 13.8% 23.1% 17.1% 39

4 Ceddanne Rafaela 43 D — WARM 93 0.182 86.7 5.9% 17.5%vs RHP 380 13.4% 30.8% 17.1% 43

5 Andruw Monasterio 42 D — COOL 103 0.189 88.9 7.4% 2.9%vs RHP 390 14.6% 7.7% 8.3% 39

6 Caleb Durbin 34 D — COOL 161 0.156 84.1 4.2% 21.1%vs RHP 375 9.2% 7.7% 9.1% 46

7 Masataka Yoshida 33 D — WARM 171 0.128 88.6 4.8% 10.4%vs RHP 368 10.7% 8.3% 7.3% 37

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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