TheHomeRuns.org — DET @ SF

Oracle Park is live · 1.14×

DET @ SF

Oracle Park · 4:05p · 12 ranked batters

Park 0.88× Wind 8 mph out 80°F Roof open

Hourly window

+5 ↑

1:05p

+6 ↑

2:05p

+7 ↑

3:05p

+8 ↑

4:05p

+9 ↑

5:05p

conditions build late — the 5:05p window peaks +9

Best of game Rafael Devers conv 16 · vs Melton ⟷ Dillon Dingler conv 30 · vs Webb → edge: Dillon Dingler

ATTACK Troy Melton RHP · DET

leak 84

0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.08 · leakiest side of this game

1 Rafael Devers +390 D ●●○○○

2 Bryce Eldridge +475 D ●●○○○

3 Willy Adames +500 D ●○○○○

FADE Logan Webb RHP · SF

leak 34

0.65 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.20 · stingy — thin edge

1 Dillon Dingler +700 C ●●●●●

2 Kevin Mcgonigle +625 D ●●●●○

3 Gleyber Torres — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Dillon Dingler: 11.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· DET Dillon Dingler ✶ COOL vs Webb +700 0.256 · 89.2 · 8.1% 33.3% 25.8% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle COOL vs Webb Edge +625 0.144 · 88.0 · 6.3% 40.0% 9.1% F B O D 36

· DET Gleyber Torres vs Webb — 0.133 · 86.3 · 6.6% 27.3% 11.3% F B O D 35

· SF Rafael Devers vs Melton Edge +390 0.230 · 92.5 · 8.2% 15.4% 16.6% F B O D 49

· SF Bryce Eldridge COOL vs Melton Edge +475 0.182 · 92.4 · 8.4% 8.3% 11.4% F B O D 43

· DET Spencer Torkelson COOL vs Webb +500 0.198 · 89.8 · 8.8% 8.3% 11.3% F B O D 43

· DET Riley Greene COOL vs Webb Edge +425 0.180 · 90.6 · 9.1% 9.1% 9.7% F B O D 41

· SF Willy Adames COOL vs Melton +500 0.193 · 87.5 · 7.2% 7.7% 10.8% F B O D 41

· SF Jung Hoo Lee vs Melton Edge — 0.145 · 86.8 · 3.9% 8.3% 8.1% F B O D 30

· DET Colt Keith COOL vs Webb Edge +850 0.149 · 88.6 · 6.4% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 32

· SF Drew Gilbert HOT vs Melton Edge +950 0.111 · 86.0 · 4.0% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 26

· DET Zach Mckinstry vs Webb Edge — 0.108 · 85.5 · 3.8% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 24

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 56.1% ← leak OFF 25.1% BRK 18.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Dillon Dingler R

13.3% 7.1% 9.6% 11.6% C 53 +700

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Spencer Torkelson R

14.0% 13.6% 12.3% 13.5% D 43 +500

112

Riley Greene L Edge

15.7% 9.1% 16.9% 14.7% D 41 +425

149

Kevin Mcgonigle L Edge

8.3% 1.8% 7.0% 7.0% D 36 +625

159

Gleyber Torres R

9.7% 0.0% 4.8% 7.7% D 35 —

179

Colt Keith L Edge

6.8% 3.4% 14.0% 7.3% D 32 +850

203

Zach Mckinstry L Edge

3.6% 0.0% 1.8% 2.6% D 24 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (56.1% usage) carries Webb's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 66.3% ← leak BRK 22.7% OFF 10.9% Overall Score

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Rafael Devers L Edge

12.5% 10.4% 8.2% 11.1% D 49 +390

Bryce Eldridge L Edge

12.3% 5.7% 16.7% 11.7% D 43 +475

111

Willy Adames R

7.9% 8.8% 13.8% 8.7% D 41 +500

187

Jung Hoo Lee L Edge

2.4% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% D 30 —

201

Drew Gilbert L Edge

2.6% 4.7% 0.0% 2.6% D 26 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (66.3% usage) carries Melton's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Dingler Mcgonigle Torres Devers

Legend

attack side — vs Melton fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Dillon Dingler +700 · 53

Stadium conditions

Oracle Park

First pitch 1:05p · roof open

Park 0.88× Wind 8 mph out 80°F open

↑

8 mph · out

77°F

1:05p

↑

9 mph · out

81°F

2:05p

↑

10 mph · out

80°F

3:05p

↑

11 mph · out

79°F

4:05p

↑

12 mph · out

77°F

5:05p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.14× 80°F, wind 8 mph W (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Logan Webb · RHP 0.65 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.20 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dillon Dingler ✶ 53 C +700 COOL 37 0.256 89.2 8.1% 33.3%vs RHP 398 21.3% 33.3% 25.8% 43

2 Spencer Torkelson 43 D +500 COOL 98 0.198 89.8 8.8% 24.3%vs RHP 394 15.9% 8.3% 11.3% 41

3 Riley Greene 41 D +425 COOL 112 0.180 90.6 9.1% 17.7%vs RHP 399 12.3% 9.1% 9.7% 30

4 Kevin Mcgonigle 36 D +625 COOL 149 0.144 88.0 6.3% 9.4%vs RHP 396 20.0% 40.0% 9.1% 46

5 Gleyber Torres 35 D — WARM 159 0.133 86.3 6.6% 16.7%vs RHP 389 9.9% 27.3% 11.3% 37

6 Colt Keith 32 D +850 COOL 179 0.149 88.6 6.4% 12.3%vs RHP 389 6.2% 0.0% 7.5% 28

7 Zach Mckinstry 24 D — WARM 203 0.108 85.5 3.8% 6.9%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 32

vs Troy Melton · RHP 0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.08 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers 49 D +390 · 61 0.230 92.5 8.2% 27.4%vs RHP 398 18.4% 15.4% 16.6% 37

2 Bryce Eldridge 43 D +475 COOL 97 0.182 92.4 8.4% 22.5%vs RHP 396 18.0% 8.3% 11.4% 30

3 Willy Adames 41 D +500 COOL 111 0.193 87.5 7.2% 21.1%vs RHP 387 15.0% 7.7% 10.8% 35

4 Jung Hoo Lee 30 D — · 187 0.145 86.8 3.9% 12.7%vs RHP 382 5.7% 8.3% 8.1% 40

5 Drew Gilbert 26 D +950 HOT 201 0.111 86.0 4.0% 12.1%vs RHP 398 3.0% 0.0% 7.2% 22

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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